The Fantasy Year in Review - 2008 - The East

One calendar year can turn a fantasy roster upside down, building your team with an eye to the future can help to avoid a major collapse, and those who took that approach were rewarded in the last 12 months. In 2008 the class of 2003 blossomed before our eyes, players like Fleury, Staal, Vanek, Coburn, Phaneuf, Carter, Parise, Getzlaf, Burns, Richards and Perry all became impact fantasy players and launched teams from the middle of the pack to fantasy championships. 

The emergence of goalie tandems in hockey has also shaken the foundation as team systems seemed to have created fantasy stars from career journeymen. Is this a one year abberation, or are we looking at the future? Something similar to what happened in NFL fantasy, where individuals like Clinton Portis were less important than owning the starting running back of the Denver Broncos. 

When Carey Price was drafted in 2005 the common belief was that goaltenders need 4-5 years to make an impact, well in 2008 Price made a dominant debut followed by Steve Mason during the second half of the year. Is it still the belief? Or has the perception changed?

We have also witnessed the descent of fantasy lynchpins like Marty Turco, the departure of Jaromir Jagr and the endless wait for Mats Sundin to make up his mind. 

It has certainly been an interesting 2008, here is a look at each team and how things changed over the last 12 months and where they may go in the future.

Eastern Conference

ATLANTIC

NY Rangers

Entering the 2008 Season the Rangers had allowed Martin Straka and Michael Nylander to leave NYC and had invested millions in Chris Drury and Scott Gomez. With future Hall of Famer Jaromir Jagr leading the offense and Brendan Shanahan coming off a bounceback season. 

15 months later Jagr and Shanahan are gone, the Rangers struggle to score and they are lead by Nikolai Zherdev and Markus Naslund. Drury and Gomez have proven to be secondary offensive options and because of this the Rangers were desperately following Sundin around Europe on his life walk. The only thing that remained a constant was Henrik Lundqvist, as he continues to thrive in Manhattan. 

With the tragic death of Alexei Cheranopov the Rangers are lacking in elite fantasy prospects, and they look to be on the verge of treading water. They need an influx of young talent to remain relevant in the Eastern Conference. 

Stick a fork in them, they were done in 08'

Jaromir Jagr, Brendan Shanahan, Wade Redden

Breakout 08'

Nikolai Zherdev

Still Bringin it in 08'

Henrik Lundqvist

Still Waiting in 08'

Brandon Dubinksy, Daniel Girardi

Overrated in 08'

Scott Gomez

Philadelphia Flyers

Entering 2008 the Flyers were coming off a last place finish and an offense built around Simon Gagne, Mike Knuble and Joni Pitkanen. Because of this they were forced to throw 8M per season at diminunitive forward Daniel Briere. Some shrewd deals brought in Braydon Coburn and Joffrey Lupul but the biggest impact on the Flyers fortunes were the emergence of Mike Richards and Jeff Carter. 6 months ago Carter was rumoured to be dealt for Tomas Kaberle and now he is leading the NHL in scoring. 

With the return of Simon Gagne, the imminent arrival of Rick Nash clone James Van Riemsdyk and the playmaking Claude Giroux right behind him, the Flyers no longer need Briere and should look for a way to get out from under that albatross of a contract. Holmgren has done well to steal Braydon Coburn, Matt Carle and Ryan Parent to rebuild a suspect defense, but as always, the Flyers achillies heel will remain Martin Biron. A definite rising power.

A lot has changed in the city of Brotherly Love in 12 months.

Breakout 08'

Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, Braydon Coburn

Still Bringin it in 08'

Simon Gagne

Still Waiting in 08'

Joffrey Lupul, Claude Giroux, James Van Riemsdyk

Overrated in 08'

Daniel Briere, Martin Biron

New Jersey Devils

The Devils have been defined for 15 years on defense and the one irreplaceable cog, Martin Brodeur. A fantasy superstar, Brodeur was one of the most consistent performers of the last decade. Well one injury later and a career scrub, backup Scott Clemmensen has stepped in and replicated his success. Has Martin Brodeur been the Clinton Portis of fantasy hockey for the last 10 years? Can the Devils plug in a competent goalie and continue to win? Questions that would have seemed absurd 12 months ago. The secondary story in New Jersey has been the emergence of Zach Parise as a fantasy force. Parise was a player on the rise entering last season, but seems to have broken through to fulfill his potential.

I once assumed that Brodeur's retirement would mark the end of the Devil's perennial contender status, but with the Devils contending without him and Elias hooking himself up to the rejuvenation machine, I am not so sure. The Devils need to add some more impact youth to compete with up and coming powers Montreal, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Washington in the near future.

Breakout 08'

Zach Parise

Still Bringin it in 08'

Patrik Elias

Still Waiting in 08'

Travis Zajac

Overrated in 08'

Brian Gionta

Biggest Shock of 08'

Martin Brodeur, Scott Clemmensen

Pittsburgh Penguins

Can I see a show of hands who thought that Evgeni Malkin would be outscoring Crosby and Ovechkin through December of this year. One year ago today Malkin was plugging along around a point per game and when a January injury hit Crosby, Malkin jumped at the opportunity and has been a dominant player ever since. The last year has seen Fleury continue his inconsistent ways, Jordan Staal regress and rebound, Marian Hossa pass through on his way to Detroit and two decimating injuries to the Pens defense corp that rushed Alex Goligoski to become their powerplay QB. 

The Hossa deal hurt the Pens depth, and without any surefire studs in the minors, I think dealing Malkin would be the sensible move going forward. Can you contend with 4 players making 27M? With a struggling world economy and the imminent lowering of the Salary Cap the answer is no, and the sooner the Pens figure it out the better. But in terms of fantasy, who cares. 

Stick a fork in them, they were done in 08'

Miroslav Satan

Breakout 08'

Evgeni Malkin

Still Bringin it in 08'

Sidney Crosby

Still Waiting in 08'

Marc Andre Fleury, Jordan Staal

Infirmary in 08'

Sergei Gonchar, Ryan Whitney

NY Islanders

Well, I am glad to see that in some cities nothing changes. Overpaid franchise goalie? Check. Crazy owner? Check. GM wearing oversized suits? Check. Do they Islanders still suck? Check.

In the words of the immortal Rick Pitino. "Mike Bossy isn't walking through that door, Bryan Trottier isn't walking through that door and Denis Potvin isn't walking through that door, and if they do, they are going to be grey and old".

You have to love the stability of the NY Islanders.

Stick a fork in them, they were done in 08'

Bill Guerin, Doug Weight, Mike Comrie

Breakout 08'

Mark Streit

Still Waiting in 08'

Kyle Okposo

Overrated in 08'

Rick Dipietro

NORTHEAST

Boston Bruins

One year ago the Bruins were making strides, but still outside Marc Savard and Zdeno Chara, lacked any fantasy players of consequence. A hard fought loss to the Canadiens in the first round of the playoffs marked the turning point for the Bruins. Exploding out of the gate to begin 2009, the Bruins kiddie corps of Phil Kessel, David Krejci, Milan Lucic and Blake Wheeler have provided fantasy owners with a handful of impact sleepers. 

Not to mention a strong defensive system that has turned Tim Thomas and Manny Fernandez into statistical superstars. The Bruins have been so strong that losing Patrice Bergeron for the majority of the last 12 months has had little consequence. 

The Bruins are not a 125 point team, but their youthful talent is for real, when Tuukka Rask finally finds himself in the Boston goal, look for a Steve Mason like impact behind the B's tight defensive wall and prepare for a rash of suicides in the Toronto area as he wins the rookie of the year.

Stick a fork in them, they were done in 08'

Michael Ryder

Breakout 08'

Phil Kessel, David Krejci, Milan Lucic

Still Bringin it in 08'

Zdeno Chara

Still Waiting in 08'

Tukka Rask, Blake Wheeler

Overrated in 08'

Tim Thomas, Manny Fernandez

Infirmary in 08'

Patrice Bergeron

Montreal Canadiens

A little over a year ago the Canadiens were picked for 13th in the Eastern Conference by the geniuses at the Hockey News. A little homework would have recognized the burgeoning talent on the farm as the 2008 season lead to breakthrough's from Tomas Plekanec, Andrei Kostitsyn and Sergei Kostitsyn. Carey Price had begun to struggle at the tail end of 2007, but when recalled in late January forced the Habs to deal incumbent Cristobal Huet.

Since Huet was dealt Price has gone 27-7-5 and has become one of the fantasy elite in the crease. The youthful core reignited a sagging Alex Kovalev who went on to have a monster season as the Canadiens rolled to first place in the East. The offseason saw the dumping of Michael Ryder and the underrated Mark Streit and the acquistion of Alex Tanguay. From lottery contender to Stanley Cup contender in just over a year.

The Canadiens are not locked into any unreasonable long term contracts and are stacked with low cost youthful talent to replace mid tier players who earn more than they are worth (cough cough Darcy Tucker), the Canadiens are going to be a contender for a while, and Carey Price will be the prime beneficiary.

Breakout 08'

Andrei Markov, Tomas Plekanec, Carey Price, Andrei Kostitsyn

Back from the dead in 08'

Alex Kovalev

Still Waiting in 08'

Guillaume Latendresse, Chris Higgins

Overrated in 08'

Saku Koivu, Alex Tanguay

Buffalo Sabres

In Buffalo, the Sabres finally decided to lock up a franchise player as Ryan Miller re-upped through 2013, but 2008 also saw the loss of Brian Campbell and the final nail in what was once an up and coming powerhouse. A rebound season for Vanek helped to justify his monster contract and the continued disappearance of Maxim Afinogenov continues to puzzle.

The Sabres have some solid young parts, and with Miller steadily improving could begin to make their mark in the second half of 2009.

Back from the dead in 08'

Tomas Vanek

Breakout 08'

Derek Roy, Jason Pominville

Still Bringin it in 08'

Ryan Miller

Still Waiting in 08'

Drew Stafford

Overrated in 08'

Maxim Afinogenov, Tim Connolly

Toronto Maple Leafs

The Leafs finally woke up and decided to dump the overrated Muskoka Five (well the Muskoka Two is still around) but the point remains, the Leafs have finally decided to rebuild. 

One year ago the Leafs were still rumbling about trying to make the playoffs and John Ferguson Jr was still intent on not confirming or denying whether he would remain with the Leafs throughout his contract. Sundin trade saga, Jeff Carter and Chris Higgins were rumoured to be Leafs and a new coach and GM have capped a pretty chaotic year in the big smoke. 

Rock bottom is still on it's way, and it is doubtful the Leafs making a fantasy impact this season will be of any use to you in the future. What the hell happened to Vesa Toskala, he went from solid to abysmal over the last 6 months, probably killing his trade value in the process.

One year from now we may be looking at a team that reloaded with a Tavares or Hedman, or we could be still waiting for rock bottom. Interesting times for Leaf Nation. 

Breakout 08'

Matt Stajan (just kidding)

Still Bringin it in 08'

Tomas Kaberle

Still Waiting in 08'

Mikhael Grabovski, Nikolai Kulemin, Justin Pogge, Jiri Tlusty

Overrated in 08'

Jason Blake

Ottawa Senators

Talk about a fall from grace. Over the last calendar year the Senators have registered a record of 30-43-9. That is 69 POINTS!! A far cry from the discussions of challenging the 1976 Montreal Canadiens and definitely in Tavares/Hedman territory. A team once stacked with young talent is now essentially loaded on one line. 

Ray Emery is in Russia and Alex Bald is having the season of his life. Jason Spezza continues to struggle and with a ton of cash wrapped up in three offensive players failing to produce at their previous output, the Sens may be forced to deal one. Cough Cough Jason Spezza Cough Cough.

2008 was a season that Ottawa fans would like to forget. Unfortunately, Leaf fans are making that quite impossible as they continue to heckle the Sens Army. 

OT: I hate the Oakland Raiders for creating Raider Nation and every team that has ripped it off since. The Sens Army is pretty lame, what good is an army that goes into every important battle and chokes it's way to defeat? I think the Canadian Army could beat them. But seeing as how Bettman is so interested in expanding to regions that don't give a shit about hockey, how about he expands to Mississippi or Alabama so their hockey team could refer to their fans as something inappropriate like the Clan. I can just see the team email letting you know how you can join the Clan to support the team.

Put a fork in them, they were done in 08'

Ray Emery, Martin Gerber

Still Bringin it in 08'

Dany Heatley

Overrated in 08'

Daniel Alfreddson, Jason Spezza

Still Waiting in 08'

Brian Lee

SOUTHEAST

Washington Capitals

Last December the Caps were struggling and they hired Bruce Boudreau as the full time coach on December 26th. With the new year brought a new outlook and the Capitals exploded to a division title. Alexander Ovechkin leapfrogged Sidney Crosby as the games best player and dragged Nicklas Backstrom to fantasy prominence. Mike Green enjoyed a monster breakout season and the arrival of Cristobal Huet provided a steadying presence in goal.

The second half of the year saw the departure of Huet and the arrival of "the artist formerly known as the MVP" Jose Theodore. It also saw Alexander Semin make the leap, unfortunately he injured himself making that leap and looks to be threatening to join the Marian Havorik All-Stars. Big changes have occurred in Washington, and bigger things can be expected should Simeon Varlamov prove to be the real deal.

Put a fork in them, they are done in 08'

Jose Theodore, Sergei Federov, Tom Poti

Breakout 08'

Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin

Still Bringin it in 08'

Alexander Ovechkin

Still Waiting in 08'

Keith Aucoin, Eric Fehr, Tomas Fleischman

Overrated in 08'

Viktor Kozlov, Jose Theodore

Carolina Hurricanes

The biggest story for me in Carolina is how the Canes get worse and Cam Ward gets better, yet he continues to fly beneath the radar. I still hate him for stealing a first round series from the Habs in 2006, but I find I like him more and more each year.

Not much has changed in Carolina over the past year, they still seem to be floating listessly without a direction in a weak division. Erik Cole is gone for Joni Pitkanen and Sergei Samsonov is still stealing money. 

What is going on with Eric Staal? He continues to disappoint fantasy owners with his consistent decline from his 100 point breakout year, too much too fast? I hope not, because this guy was fun to watch 2-3 years ago. I see another failed run at 8th in their immediate future.

Put a fork in them, they are done in 08'

Sergei Samsonov

Breakout 08'

Cam Ward

Still Bringin it in 08'

Ray Whitney

Still Waiting in 08'

Eric Staal, Tuomu Ruutu, Joni Pitkanen

Infirmary in 08'

Justin Williams

Florida Panthers

Craig Anderson was the buzz word in Florida over the second half of 2008 as he has impacted fantasy races as a strong early season pickup. With Peter DeBoer and his defensive philosophies taking root, he could continue to remain relevant.....but, he left the door open for Tomas Vokoun to slip back through and Vokoun has made the most of the opportunity. I still believe that both these goalies will be ownership worthy with DeBoer's track record.

The Panthers continue to frustrate me as I await for players like Stephen Weiss, Nathan Horton, David Booth and Keith Ballard to make the leap. I have been impressed with Michael Frolik and am interested to see what Shawn Matthias can accomplish with a regular shift. 

A change in scenery in 2008 also showed that Wrong Way McCabe still has a pulse as he has recovered some of the shards of his tattered career. 

I continue to wait for the breakout season.

Put a fork in them, they are done in 08'

Richard Zednik

Breakout 08'

Craig Anderson

Still Bringin it in 08'

Jay Bouwmeester

Still Waiting in 08'

Nathan Horton, Stephen Weiss, Michael Frolik, Anthony Stewart, David Booth

Overrated in 08'

Keith Ballard, Bryan McCabe

Tampa Bay Lightning

Although their ownership is a joke and the trading of Dan Boyle was a disaster, the Lightning are headed in the right direction. They still possess fantasy superstars Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis and although he is struggling 2008 saw the acquistion of Steven Stamkos, who will be a fantasy stud. Add in the pleasant surprise of Mike Smith and another possible bottom finish in 2009 and Tampa will remain relevant in fantasy circles for the time being.

Put a fork in them, they are done in 08'

Radim Vrbata, Olaf Kolzig, Mark Recchi, Gary Roberts

Breakout 08'

Mike Smith

Still Bringin it in 08'

Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis

Still Waiting in 08'

Steven Stamkos, Steve Eminger

Overrated in 08'

Ryan Malone, Vaclav Prospal

Atlanta Thrashers

2008 was a disaster for Atlanta. The Thrashers collapsed from division champion to bottom feeder, had to watch Braydon Coburn mature as they pried the fork from Alexei Zhitnik's back and had to deal Marian Hossa for spare parts to ensure they did not come out empty handed from the Dany Heatley trade. Add in that Ilya Kovalchuk is beginning to grumble about wanting to leave and one of the worst GMs in the business conducting the negotiations and two years from now we might be talking about how the Winnipeg Thrashers would be wise to deal Kari Lehtonen to restart their rebuild.

Breakout 08'

Bryan Little

Still Bringin it in 08'

Ilya Kovalchuk

Still Waiting in 08'

Ondrej Pavelec

Overrated in 08'

Tobias Enstrom, Jason Williams, Kari Lehtonen

Part 2: The Western Conference tomorrow

Tonight's starting goalies - Dec 30, 2008

It is amazing to me have to listen to stories about Tim Thomas, Craig Anderson, Steve Mason and Manny Fernandez over and over again. Why is nobody talking about Mike Smith?

Smith has been quietly outstanding in Tampa this year. If you replaced him with Marc Denis or Kari Rammo (another of the overrated due to his nationality) or this year's backup Olaf Kolzig the Lightning would already be stitching a jersey for one of John Tavares or Victor Hedman. 

I understand why he may be ignored in fantasy hockey, his lack of wins make him essentially worthless, but the guy is screaming to be picked up in a keeper league. With the Lightning's core of Lecavalier, St. Louis and Stamkos with a probable superstar coming from the 2009 Draft the Lightning could make a quick turnaround, and Smith will be a UFA come the summer of 2011. The 28 year old could then choose where he wants to play, if he finds his way to a contender, look out.

Smith was the centerpiece of the Brad Richards deal and to me was a shot in the dark for the Lightning because of the stifling Dallas D. Tampa had desperately searched for a replacement for Khabibulin and rolled the dice on Smith.

The assumption on my behalf was that Tampa would be awful and expose Smith as a system goaltender. I was half right, Tampa is awful but Smith is facing over 32 shots per game and in 20 of his 28 starts has faced 30+ shots. The porous TB defense fails to limit the work to the outside so Smith is bombarded with quality scoring chances on a nightly basis. One look at his shot chart makes it clear that he is under siege on a nightly basis. Yet he is surpassing his Dallas numbers on a far inferior team.

Analyzing Smith's chart you can see he sees a tonne of shots from the slot, the Lightning defense consistently fails to defend the scoring zones. Smith faces quality chances and does not benefit from increased shot totals due to pushing the play to the outside.

76% of the goals scored came from the slot with only 23% coming from outside the zone. And 46% of his total shots came from within the slot. These numbers don't mean much unless contrasted with a goaltender playing in a protective system. I searched the league for a comparable, and found Fantasy All-Star Evgeni Nabokov.

Nabokov has started 2 games less, but has essentially the same GAA as Smith (2.45 to 2.47). Smith has a .922 save percentage to Nabokov's .911, yet Nabokov is 19-3-2 while Smith is a member of the fantasy forgotten with an 8-12-8 record. But what is more impressive?

Analyzing Nabokov's chart you can see he sees a tonne of shots from the perimeter, the Sharks defense makes it difficult to waltz through the slot and Nabokov benefits through a lot of shots from the exterior.

56% of the goals scored came from the slot with 44% coming from outside the scoring zone, almost a 50/50 ratio. 40% of his total shots came from within the slot with Mike Smith facing over 23% more shots than Nabokov overall. In 6 of Nabokov's 25 starts he has faced less than 20 shots and has faced 30+ shots only 10 times. 

It is just another reason why I feel that Nabokov is overrated. But this is not about Nabokov, it is about Mike Smith and an appreciation for what he has done in 2009. Smith ranks in the top 15 in Goaltender efficiency ranking despite a dreadful team in front of him and is blowing away his backups in terms of performance. The combination of Kolzig and Rammo have performed nowhere near the level of Mike Smith.

Smith has always fit into the same category as Josh Harding for me. When you break into the NHL inside a system like the Stars or Wild, it remains difficult to assess where he is in his development. But peeling back the layers has left me impressed and leaves me with the assumption that a starting assignment on a better team could lead to him breaking into the upper echelon of fantasy goaltenders. 

This season has brought a lot of goaltending surprises, to me Smith has not only been the biggest surprise, but the most impressive.

With thanks to the Goalie post, on to tonight's starters

Washington Capitals @ Buffalo Sabres

J. Theodore - firm @ R. Miller - firm

Ryan Miller has been quietly consistent and very good for an average Sabres team. With Miller's stats improving as the Sabres descend, I am anxious to see if he could ascend to the elite should the Sabres ever get over the loss of Drury, Campbell and Briere. Or maybe he will demand to leave Buffalo like everybody else outside of Gilbert Perreault and Jim Kelly and land somewhere with a good team. Either way, I am interested.

Atlanta Thrashers @ Toronto Maple Leafs

J. Hedberg - firm @ V. Toskala - probable

Where is Justin Pogge? I mean the Leafs cherry picked his last start against the Thrashers, why not bring him up again?  I understand protecting his confidence, but as bad as this Leaf team could get, you are going to need to expose him to some good teams to see if he can play at some point. Cujo is on the verge of being put to sleep and Toskala is being exposed to more rubber than a 15 year old Traci Lords, I want to see if the kid can play. I think the Leafs are afraid that he sucks.

Boston Bruins @ Pittsburgh Penguins

T. Thomas - probable @ M. Fleury - probable

The Bruins have the best goaltending tandem in the NHL? Really? I have heard this way to much lately. Do NHL writers watch hockey games? Am I really supposed to believe the difference between the Bruins last season and this season is that Thomas at the age of 34 decided he was going to be an All-Star? Why didn't anybody claim the Wings had the best tandem in the NHL last season? Is Tim Thomas really better than Chris Osgood the two time Stanley Cup champion? Shockingly I am not getting visions of Moog/Fuhr dancing in my head. More like Andy Moog and Arturs Irbe.

Montreal Canadiens @ Tampa Bay Lightning

J. Halak - probable @ M. Smith - firm

Generally when I praise a goaltender they immediately shit the bed. As a Canadiens fan, can you see where I am going here? That and Price has been playing out of his mind, so I wouldn't wager your defaulted mortgage on this one.  

Chicago Blackhawks @ Detroit Red Wings

N. Khabibulin - probable @ T. Conklin - firm

Lidstrom is hurt and will miss Tuesday's game and possibly the Winter Classic. Seeing as the Wings haven't bothered to get a competent goaltender, they will essentially be playing with an empty net as long as Lidstrom is out. The Wings are so good, they might not notice.

NJ Devils @ St. Louis Blues

S. Clemmensen - firm @ M. Legace - probable

This is really getting embarrasing for Fatso. I mean last season Clemmensen was marginally better than Justin Pogge, could Pogge step into Brodeur's shoes and outperform him? No wonder Marty wanted to play 80 games per year and endorsed Weekes for the backup job. 

Ottawa Senators @ Edmonton Oilers

M. Gerber - firm @ M. Garon - probable

The Sens really need to blow this team up. The window has closed, why pretend that it still exists? Deal Spezza for prospects and buy your ticket for the Tavaredman sweepstakes. Nothing would piss off Leaf fans more than Tavares wearing a Sens jersey while they blow another first rounder.

Philadelphia Flyers @ Vancouver Canucks

M. Biron - firm @ Not Luongo - firm

Unless Mats Sundin can play net his arrival will mean nothing until Bobby Lou returns and recaptures his early season form. 

Tonight's starting goalies - Dec 29, 2008

Guess who's back, back again, Turco's back, tell a friend.

For all you Turco owners, close your eyes. All of you that dealt him for the first warm body you could find will not be happy with this news.

Since I wrote about Turco in The Numbers, he has actually managed to turn his season around.

In the month of December Turco has gone 7-2-1 with a 2.61 GAA and a .905 SV%. Now those numbers may not seem that impressive, but they are a substantial improvement on his pre-December numbers.

The conventional wisdom has always been acquire front line talent when they have bottomed out. If you acquired Turco for Decemember you have been rewarded with solid, but unspectacular numbers.

In a keeper league with the fire sale sign on him for a month, he was a low risk acquisition. Winning 75% of your starts is nothing to sneeze at, but even with his resurgence he has been extremely inconsistent. I don't believe you will see a torrid second half, but I believe that a solid half season awaits. 

If you acquired him in the first couple of rounds, then I can understand the hatred and the disgust that comes with his minor turnaround. If you picked him up at a bargain price, then these numbers will bring a smile to your face.

With thanks to the goalie post, on to tonight's starters.

NY Islanders @ NY Rangers

R. DiPietro - probable @ H. Lundqvist - probable

I would love to tell you that Rick Dipietro is back and everything is great, but a 4-1 win against the Maple Leafs is like a 4-1 win against Kim Kardashian in an STD contest. Losing wasn't really an option.

Montreal Canadiens @ Florida Panthers

C. Price - firm @ C. Anderson - firm

The Canadiens have struggled for years on their post Christmas swing through Florida, but after watching Carey Price in Saturday against the Penguins, it is hard to bet against him. With a career .677 winning percentage the Habs are a different team with him in the lineup.

San Jose Sharks @ Dallas Stars

E. Nabokov - probable @ M. Turco - likely

I didn't realize there were that many Sharks fans involved in fantasy hockey. Save the emails people, you aren't going to change my mind. Actually, I think I have replaced Chris Osgood as my favourite average goaltender who is saved daily by a great team. Starting Nabokov instead of Boucher is akin to hanging a jersey with number 20 on it instead of 33 and expecting different results. 

Minnesota Wild @ Calgary Flames

J. Harding - firm @ M. Kiprusoff - probable

If you start only one goaltender in your fantasy league, then I don't understand why Backstrom owners don't acquire Harding and use goaliepost nightly to fill your 82 games. It will guarantee you top 5 point totals in all the goaltender categories and you don't have to burn an early pick on a franchise goaltender. It is a safe play and something I would do if I missed out on Luongo, Price or Lundqvist.

Nashville Predators @ Colorado Avalanche

P. Rinne - firm @ P. Budaj - firm

Pekka Rinne, blah blah blah, active stick, blah blah blah, Finnish sensation, blah blah blah. He is 26 years old and is playing for a mediocre Predators team. Sorry if the guy doesn't excite me. If he was on the Bruins, Wild or Panthers, I might be a little more enthused, but Barry Trotz's defensive history is mediocre at best.

Columbus Blue Jackets @ LA Kings

S. Mason - probable @ J. Quick - firm

Steve Mason's first 18 games of 2009

10-7-1    1.87 GAA    0.932 SV%

Pascal Leclaire's first 18 games of 2008

10-5-2    1.82GAA    0.934 SV%

I am not saying anything, just thought these numbers were rather interesting. Seeing as Ken Hitchcock has spent his whole career making goalie's look great. I think I will wait a while longer before I annoint Mason an elite level fantasy goaltender.

FantasySense Hockey will return Dec 29

Don't ever quit, because if I can make it, anybody can.

Merry Christmas from Fantasy Sense Hockey

And the Pascal Leclaire All-Stars.

L to R :Pavel Datsyuk, Pascal Leclaire and Evgeni Malkin (unfortunately Rod Brind'amour could not be present and he wishes every one a safe and happy holiday)

For those new to Fantasysense Hockey the Pascal Leclaire All-Stars are a collection of the ugliest players in the NHL.

I am always taking nominations and recently inducted Rod Brind'amour.

Any suggestions? Feel free to email me @ fantasysensehockey@yahoo.ca

The rise of the Panthers

For two to three years I have been waiting for the Florida Panthers to make the leap to playoff team.

With a youthful core I was disappointed yearly as they could never get their act together. After the Panthers dealt Luongo, I just assumed they were becoming an NHL wasteland.

When Craig Anderson popped up on the fantasy radar I decided to take a look at what was going on in Miami.

I was not surprised at Vokoun's slow start because he has been streaky throughout his whole career, but Anderson was putting up All-Star numbers, so I dove into Anderson's history trying to figure out what the hell was going on.

When nothing in Anderson's history indicated that he was poised to be dominant, I went into the coaching history, mainly Peter DeBoer. What I found was a defensive minded coach who laid the foundation of stingy defenses for the last 10 years in the OHL. A coach whose teams defensively ranked 1st 4 times, 2nd 3 times with 3 more top 5 finishes in his 11 year career.

This is when the lightbulb went on and I realized the value that was sitting along the bottom of the barrel in Tomas Vokoun. Fortunately for me Vokoun was sitting on the last place team in my keeper league and I got him for a song, a 4th rounder. Vokoun was my Price, Luongo insurance. Since I made the deal Vokoun has returned to life and has allowed only 4 goals in 4 games while registering back-to-back shutouts.

With a renewed interest in the Panthers I have tuned into the last couple of Panthers games and a slick Czech caught my eye. Michael Frolik, the 10th overall selection in the 2006 Draft has been all over the place. With 7 point in his last 7 games, the 20 year old is beginning to show the potential that was projected before the draft. The kid has sick playmaking skills and with added strength could be the player that finally gets Nathan Horton going.

DeBoer has the Panthers look like a cohesive unit buying into his philosophy and I would not be shocked if they become the surprise team of the second half. Frolik might not be able to keep up his recent production this year, but in a keeper league I think he is worth a stash and wait.

Evgeni Nabokov - The Numbers

Over the last 12 months in my keeper league Evgeni Nabokov has been involved in all types of controversy.

Late last November Nabokov was packaged with Andrei Markov in return for Pascal Leclaire and Zdeno Chara. This deal was the Spark for a championship run for the team acquiring Nabokov and was a classic case of sell high with Pascal Leclaire. This deal created a domino effect in which another desperate owner in an attempt to match it made one of the worst deals in fantasy history.

With Nabokov in place the San Perth Sharks romped to an easy victory. In the keeper league that I run we imposed a rule in which we do not allow owners to flip players back and forth in order to avoid rentals and collusion. If you deal a player to a team, that player is not eligible to return to his original team for one calendar year. 

Well In early November this season the bottom feeder who dealt Nabokov the year before made an attempt to reacquire him the day he was eligible to return setting off a 30 post explosion on our league board, the deal was vetoed due to collusion. I will not get into details about the deal, but lets just say it was extremely shady. 

When Nabokov was finally dealt, he returned Daniel Briere who lasted one shift and was immediately placed on the DL for 6 weeks. Karma is a bitch.

But the question remained, why is a goaltender who ranks among the top goaltenders in fantasy playing on a powerhouse team continually being shopped? Nabokov has won 64 of his last 98 games yet was being flipped all over the league.

Looking at Nabokov he has been slightly inconsistent, but has remained in the top 10 for the majority of his NHL career. Including a monster 18-3-2 start to 2009. 

His inconsistincies have lead his draft status to fluctuate wildly in our yearly drafts, and has been left unprotected and undrafted at times over our 5 year keeper league history.

So when Nabokov went down to an early season injury and Brian Boucher stepped in and seemlessly replaced him, I began to wonder, how much of the Sharks success was Nabokov and how much was the system?

Boucher was not registering his numbers against the bottom of the league in spot starts, he was the starter while Nabokov recovered from his injury. Boucher didn't just bridge the gap for owners, he dominated.

This was obviously not enough to determine that it was a system and not Nabokov. First, it is too small of a sample to take a proper reading, and second, Brian Boucher has been streaky his whole career. During his rookie season he almost lead the Flyers to the Stanley Cup Finals and within two years was out of the league. Boucher then returned with the Coyotes and set an NHL record by going 5 straight games with a shutout. It would not be fair to look at those numbers alone.

With that being said, it piqued my interest and lead me to look further into Nabokov's previous running mates and their success with the Sharks.

As I looked back on names like Steve Shields, Mike Vernon, Miikka Kiprusoff and Vesa Toskala there were only 4 seasons where a legit comparison could be made. During the 2003 season the Sharks rotated between Nabokov, Toskala and Kiprusoff (talk about an embarrasment of riches). Nabokov received the bulk of the starts on a struggling Sharks team, but with 33 appearances between his backups I felt it was enough to make a strong comparable.

2002-03 SEASON

The 2003 season saw a decline in the Sharks play and with it a decline in Nabokov's numbers. Although his numbers are marginally better than the tandem of Toskala and Kiprusoff, he failed to excel behind a shaky team and plummeted down the fantasy board. It is not an indictment of his ability, but it certainly posed questions of how dependant he was on the team for his success.

2003-04 SEASON

In 2003-04 Nabokov maintained his starting job and with Kiprusoff in Calgary was left to fight off Vesa Toskala. Toskala in his 28 games posted superior numbers to Nabokov and although it would be assumed that Toskala was given the easier opponents, a study of his 2004 starts indicate that he started 19 of his 28 games on the road, and of those 28 games he faced only 8 teams with a losing record. The teams he faced had a .540 winning percentage, contrast that with Nabokov having a majority of home starts (37 of 59 starts), 27 of his starts against teams with losing records and a combined .507 winning percentage. The deeper I looked it became clear that it was more of the beginning of a steady platoon, with Toskala matching Nabokov's production, the coaching staff had full confidence in Toskala and were not just setting up their backup for easy opponents.

2005-06 SEASON
The deeper I delved the more damning evidence presented itself. To say that Nabokov was outperformed in the season following the lockout is an understatement. The Sharks without Nabokov played at a .750 winning percentage while with him they were well below .500 at .464. Not the type of numbers you expect from your franchise goaltender. Nolan Schaefer and Vesa Toskala are not the reincarnation of Roy and Hasek, yet when presented with the same circumstances vastly outperformed Nabokov. I used to damn the Sharks management for using a platoon, but with these numbers it is easy to see why they did.

2006-07 SEASON 

Nabokov bounced back in 2007 with a strong season, but once again could not distance himself from his backup. Now the conventional wisdom during 2007 was that the Sharks were fortunate to have two All-Star level goaltenders. It was this type of thinking that enticed the pea brained John Ferguson Jr to deal yet another first round draft pick for Toskala. Toskala removed from the insulation of the Sharks system plummeted to the basement of fantasy starters. Outside of die hard Leaf fans, you will be lucky to find Toskala owned outside of a deep based league. 

It is hard not to look at these statistics and come to the conclusion that Nabokov is EXTREMELY overrated.  From stints with the Kentucky Thoroughblades, Cleveland Lumberjacks and San Jose Sharks, Nabokov has failed to seperate himself statistically from his backups. 

The question for me was, how much did the Sharks suffer with Nabokov unavailable to them?

Surely over 8 years a legitimate chasm would present itself when he was not in the lineup. Great goaltenders are irreplaceable, a team may be able to weather a storm without a goaltender, but to seemlessly exist without him indicates the importance of him to the franchise. 

Do you see any difference? Over 8 seasons and the difference between Nabokov and the combinaton of Steve Shields, Miikka Kiprusoff, Noel Schaefer, Vesa Toskala and Brian Boucher is negligible. Over 260 games the Sharks have existed like Nabokov did not exist. 

As far as I am concerned Nabokov is extremely overrated. A deal to any team not dedicated to the defensive aspects of the game would essentially leave you with a useless fantasy asset. Nabokov has proven throughout his career that he is overly reliant on the Sharks system. With Toskala being exposed in Toronto, it is likely that a move from the West Coast would similarly expose Nabokov. 

I had my answer. Nabokov was being shopped around because a bunch of owners are trying to sell high on an asset before it crashes. Smart sound management. 

Derick Brassard - Rookie season over

Derick Brassard's rookie season is over.

The Columbus Blue Jackets centre suffered a dislocated shoulder during a game last Thursday and will require season-ending surgery. The 21-year-old had 25 points so far this year and was tied for the rookie scoring lead with Kris Versteeg heading into Monday's games.

Brassard will have surgery early next month at the Cleveland Clinic Sports Health Center.

The former first round draft pick had 10 goals and 15 assists in 31 games. He was also a plus-12 and earned the NHL's rookie of the month award in October.

courtesy of the Toronto Star

Tough break for Brassard. He was the early favourite for the rookie of the year. Although his pace had slowed over the last couple of weeks, he has proven that he has a great fantasy future. The Jackets lack organizational depth at center, so this could pose a problem going forward in 2009. With Filatov representing Russia in the World Juniors, it will be interesting to see what the Jackets do to help the offense.

Tonight's starting goalies - Dec 21, 2008

With the injury to Vesa Toskala and Cujo aging worse than Jenna Jameson, is it time for the overhyped arrival of Justin Pogge? 

I think if Justin Pogge had been drafted by the Forida Panthers he would have been allowed to develop at a leisurely pace with little to no expectations placed upon him. Unfortunately that fate did not await him in the fishbowl of Toronto.

As a 90th overall pick Pogge actually received very little attention during his first two seasons of junior hockey. After his draft year his pedestrian numbers with the Prince George Cougars mimicked stablemate Real Cyr and was virtually ignored by the Toronto Media and faithful. But a trade to the Calgary Hitmen midseason miraculously improved his numbers across the board. Funny how leaving a bottom feeder has a tendency to do that.

Receiving the majority of starts for the powerful Hitmen began to bring Pogge to prominence and resulted him being chosen for the 2006 World Junior Championship team. The TSN hype machine sucked in an unproven 19 year old and spit out the future goaltending star of the Toronto Maple Leafs. It is a yearly phenomenon that makes household names of Canadian teenagers, some of which become NHL stars, and some of which deliver your mail and fix your toilets today. 

Pogge's media lead ascension convinced John Ferguson Head Wound to deal super prospect Tuuka Rask for the hat salesman Andrew Raycroft and placed a tonne of pressure on Pogge. The logic was flawed, JFJ overpaid for a goaltender who was at a buy low price and gave up a 1st rounder for him. It was also flawed in that Ferguson managed to place himself in the position of having to choose between the two stars of the 2006 World Junior tournament when he had the rights to both. Why wouldn't you sit and wait til one blossomed over the other? Then deal the other based on previous hype? 

The Leafs continued to make curious decisions that make me doubt their belief in his potential. It began with the decision to put winning AHL playoff games ahead of Pogge's development. It is highly confusing to bring in a player like Scott Clemmensen, roadblock his route to the NHL and then have him split starts with your future NHL starter. Then when it is time for the playoffs, nail Pogge to the bench, and allow a player who you will allow to leave in 3 months gain all the valuable lessons learned during an extended playoff run.

Contrast that with the ascension plan of Carey Price. Entering the 2007 AHL playoffs Price was coming off a standout World Junior performance and was the CHL goaltender of the year. Sound familiar? Yet he was thrown into the fire of the Calder Cup playoffs. The Canadiens actually used their minor league affiliate for get this, the benefit of the NHL club. 

Can you see how this could shatter a 22 year old's confidence? Now Pogge is struggling in his 3rd AHL campaign and may get called up to a Leaf team that in all reality is going to be cleaning house and exposing a struggling 22 year old to even more pressure, as well as a fan base that is beginning to doubt his ability. 

Maybe this kid can be saved with the arrival of Brian Burke, but he needs to reign in Ron Wilson from saying things like "Yeah, he played," Wilson said after his team's 3-2 loss. "But he made mistakes at the end. He allowed what looked like a great effort to dribble right down his chin. "Obviously you wish he had the last goal back and that's kind of why he's not ready to play in the NHL. You have to be able to play poised all the way."

This is not an article to trash Justin Pogge, he will most likely become a solid NHL goaltender (from day one he reminded me of Trevor Kidd) and should he one day find himself on a strong defensive minded team will be able to excel as a solid fantasy option, but he is also vulnerable to being exposed on a poor team and shattering his confidence and becoming Scott Clemmensen or Marc Denis. 

I am just trying to point out to look beyond the hype. When you pull back the curtain far enough reality is there waiting to be exposed. If the Leafs step up and begin to treat this kid in the manner a top prospect deserves, then maybe he can still reach his potential. But I don't think his potential will ever approach the levels that were forecast 3 years ago. 

With thanks to the goaliepost, on to tonight's starters

Philadelphia Flyers @ NJ Devils

A. Niittymakki - firm @ S. Clemmensen - firm

Marty Biron is still suffering from the flu, now he knows how the rest of the hockey world feels to see him play. Niittymakki is outperforming him, where have we seen this before?

Colorado Avalanche @ Florida Panthers

P. Budaj - firm @ T. Vokoun - firm

Vokoun's strong performance on Thursday has earned him another shot against the Avs tonight. I have a feeling as DeBoer's system takes hold that the Panthers will get stingy, leaving Anderson and Vokoun as immediate beneficiaries.

Boston Bruins @ St. Louis Blues

T. Thomas - probable @ C. Mason - probable

Manny Fernandez is a genius. Can you pick a better way to not expose your flaws then playing with Dallas, Minnesota and now Boston? He is 34 years old, has never won a playoff series and is making 4M+ per season. This guy is the Kevin Federline of goaltenders. We all need to look past his flaws and appreciate his brilliance of cashing in on essentially nothing. PooPooZao!

Carolina Hurricanes @ Montreal Canadiens

C. Ward - probable @ C. Price - firm

Price was dressed last night and gets the start tonight, Halak has done a solid job, but certainly did not create any type of controversy in Montreal. If the ravenous media in Montreal cannot create a story, there is no story there.

Ridin' the Buses - World Junior Edition

It's that time of year. The time to enjoy your leftover turkey sandwiches while planning your annual boxing day trip to trade in that gift from your in-laws. Also the time of year where you stop and analyze your fantasy team, a time to celebrate your first half domination or release the stress of your struggling, underacheiving, injury riddled poor excuse for a lineup. But, with Christmas comes the World Junior Hockey Championships, a hockey lover's dream, and a potential fantasy goldmine. Some of the biggest names in junior hockey on one stage for your viewing pleasure. In this tournament you can skyrocket to the top of NHL and fantasy draftboards or take a nosedive into the fantasy abyss. These are the names that should have our undivided attention during our stay in Ottawa.

1. John Tavares - LW - Canada
One year ago today Tavares was the clear cut numero uno when it came to prospects for the upcoming 2009 NHL draft. Entering his 4th year in the OHL, it has been very easy to overlook the things he does well and emphasize his flaws and scouts have been very guilty of this. Over two weeks in Ottawa Tavares can shine and seize the number one draft slot. Look for him to lead the Canadians to a 5th straight World Junior Ttile, reclaiming his No.1 status in the process.

2. Victor Hedman - D - Sweden
The next Nick Lidstrom? If the Swedes make a deep run in this tournament don't be surprised to see Hedman gain top defencemen honours. Hedman has surpassed Tavares in many rankings heading into the World Juniors and with a dominant performance can make it unanimous. The 6'7" 220 lb. 18 year old monster has the offensive instincts and skating skills to be the most dominant defenseman in the NHL for a decade. If you were a GM in 1993 would you have taken Chris Pronger or Eric Lindros? That is the decision a team will have ahead of them in 6 months.

3. Nikita Filatov - LW - Russia
Why a team that has trouble putting the puck in the net and employs one of the worst power plays in the entire NHL would send a potential franchise player like Filatov down for more seasoning is beyond me. Well the Blue Jackets loss is Russia's gain, and instead of learning the ropes in his rookie NHL campaign Filatov will look to skate circles around the competition with his world class speed. Filatov remains one of the favourites to lead this tourney in scoring.

4. James Van Riemsdyk - LW - USA
JVR is the epitimy of the classic power forward. We all love to throw around comparisons and expectations when it come to up and coming youngsters, its not going out on a limb to say Van Riemsdyk is the second coming of Rick Nash. It wouldn't be much of a stretch to suggest he could even surpass Nash in the near future. After already wreaking havoc at last years championships the best is yet to come for JVR. Philly fans break out the popcorn, and enjoy the show.

5. Alex Pietrangelo - D - Canada
Remember the fab four of the 2003 draft ? Phaneuf, Weber, Suter and Coburn have all made there mark early in there NHL careers but the big 3 of 2008 is right behind them. With Drew Doughty logging major minutes with the Kings and Zach Bogosian on the shelf in hotlanta, Canada has enlisted the help of the third part of that great class, Alex Pietrangelo. One of many young guns chomping at the bit to get there shot in St. Louis. For now Pietrangelo will have to settle for quarterbacking Canada's chances for gold. Not a bad gig if you can get it.

6. Johnathan Blum - D - USA
Too small? Not strong enough? Blum has heard it all. It seems like this former first round selection of the Predators just doesn't get his due respect. In 2007 Blum scorched the WHL to the tune of 63 points in 64 games and is on pace to shatter that total this season with 44 in his first 28 games. I can hear the USA USA USA chants brewing next week and Blum will look to make everyone a believer and earn the respect he deserves.

7. Viatcheslav Voynov - D - Russia
The run on D continues with the 18 year old Voynov. Another member of the kiddie core in Los Angeles. The Kings have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to the backend. Voynov has had the advantage of being seasoned in Manchester (the Kings AHL affiliate) and has enjoyed a steady climb up the ladder. Where he fits in the crowded california defence is up in the air but plans to be a major contributor in the russian arsenal.

8. Cody Hodgson - C - Canada
Another prospect that should already be in the NHL. Pegged to start the season as a Canuck, Hodgson has justified his high draft status with a phenomanal start with the Brampton Battallion of the OHL . Now that Mats Sundin's has completed his life walk and made a decision, Vancouver fans take note: Hodgson and his 20 goals in 23 games could be in for a second half callup. Keeper Leagues on full alert.

9. Colin Wilson - C - USA
Drafted 7th overall in 2008, Wilson has taken the college ranks by storm. Entering the World Juniors, Wilson brings with him 21 point in 18 games for Boston University. Another outstanding draft choice by Nashville, some teams could learn a thing or two from the Predators, rhymes with Moronto Kaple Reefs. The son of former NHLer Carey Wilson and one of the many hopefuls to lead the Americans into battle. Americans into battle, I have never heard that before.

10 . Thomas McCollum - G - USA
What would this list be if we didn't include one of the top up and coming netminders. With Chris Osgood sucking as usual and only Ty Conklin and Jimmy Howard standing in his way, the Americans could very well be going into battle with the Red Wings #1 goalie of the future. McCollum has put on a show this season registering a 2.13 G.AA and .928 save percentage with the OHL's Guelph Storm. A name to get real familiar with.

Bergeron Concussed again?

Boston Bruins forward Patrice Bergeron, who missed most of last season with a concussion, left Saturday's game against Carolina in the second period after a collision with the Hurricanes' Dennis Seidenberg.

Bergeron went down face-first on the ice after finishing a check on Seidenberg as he was dumping the puck into the Boston zone. Bergeron was down and attended to for several minutes before looking wobbly when he got to his skates and was helped to the locker room.

There was no immediate report on his status.

courtesy of TSN

It will be interesting to see the impact this may have on the Bruins. With Krejci's emergence over the last month it may not be as debilitating as last season. We will keep you posted on his status.