"Pascal Leclaire is the greatest goaltender that the Ottawa Senators have ever had" - Pierre McGuireJames Duthie proceded to bring up Dominik Hasek and made Pierre McGuire look like a fool, was trade day that slow? Well it was, but this is typical Pierre McGuire. He is loud, bombastic and obnoxious. He makes his living making strong statements. McGuire has a wide base of knowledge and my only problem with him is that he rarely admits when one of his outlandish predictions is false. I don't expect a retraction on his latest prognostication.
I understand that the Sens have had difficulty in goal, but really? If you are going to judge a goaltender based on numbers alone, then this is way off.
What is he basing that statement on? On scouting reports? On his goaltending analysis? He is the guy who lambasted Cristobal Huet in 2006 claiming the NHL had figured him out. Since then Huet is 69-43-12 with a 2.50 GAA and a .917 SV%.
My assumption is he is basing his analysis on Leclaire's one good NHL season? The one where Scott Howson got suckered and handed out a $4M per year contract, then promptly traded him away at the first opportunity?
Let's ignore the Hasek year, is Leclaire really head and shoulders above Patrick Lalime, Ron Tugnutt, Damian Rhoades, Tom Barrasso and Ray Emery? Seeing as Leclaire has had one good season in his career let's take a look and compare the numbers of each goaltender's peak season.
Since winning percentage is relative to strength of team I will ignore it in regards to this comparison.
In order to even out the numbers in regards to the different era's, I took the highest scoring season (2007 - 2.95 goals per game) and adjusted all the numbers towards that.
Using these numbers Pascal Leclaire stacks up fairly evenly with past Senators netminders. But does that prove Leclaire is greater than any other Senators goaltender?
In his career season he trails journeyman Ron Tugnutt and matches up favourably to Ottawa whipping boys Ray Emery and Patrick Lalime. With no other notable seasons in Leclaire's career, these stats make it difficult to prove McGuire's assertion correct.
So I decided to look at his career numbers and see if he was able to rise above the system, at any point in his career was he able to outdistance his goaltending partners, what outside of hyperbole would make Pierre McGuire scream this numerous times during deadline day.
Leclaire enjoyed a succesful QMJHL debut as he was the 6th ranked goaltender during the 1999 season. But was that Leclaire? Or a result of a powerful Mooseheads team lead by Ladislav Nagy and Alex Tanguay? The Mooseheads were more succesful with Alexei Volkov between the pipes and had a marked improvement without Leclaire in goal.
In Leclaire's sophomore season he dropped to 16th in efficiency, behind future NHL goaltender's Maxime Ouellet, Sébastion Caron, Dany Sabourin and former Leaf great Sébastien Centomo. Once again he trailed teammate Alexei Volkov as both of their stats regressed as the Moosehead suffered the departures of Tanguay and Nagy. Leclaire still had not offered any seperation between himself and future KHL journeyman Volkov.
In Leclaire's final season with the bottom feeding Rocket he was able to improve his efficiency ranking to 13th but once again proved inefficient in differentiating himself from future washout Jonathan Cayer. Four seasons in the QMJHL, in all four seasons he was unable to outperform his partner in any season and the Blue Jackets decided to use the 8th overall pick on him in the 2001 Draft. You had to love the Quebec goaltending revolution, in it's heyday it involved GMs diving headlong into the QMJHL looking for the next Patrick Roy, talent or not. Sounds a little like the Finnish invasion right now.
With Leclaire turning pro the Jackets had their fingers crossed that they had not blown the number 8 pick. Funny how Doug Maclean talks endlessly about his Steve Mason selection, but never mentions that he wasted the number 8 pick on Leclaire in 2001. Leclaire's debut was a disaster as the trio of Karl Goehring, JF Labbe and Mike Walsh made the first rounder look like a wasted pick.
Leclaire significantly improved upon his rookie season, but with those numbers in 2003, anything would be considered a marked improvement. His career arc continues as Leclaire cannot outdistance himself from Karl Goehring and Fred Brathwaite. I love Brathwaite's heart, but he gave everything he had to be an NHL backup. Six seasons and Leclaire had yet to outperform one of his partners and his team suffered zero dropoff with his absence. I wonder if any of these stats were included in Pierre McGuire's assesment?
2005 was Leclaire's breakout year. Well, if being injured and playing 14 games is a breakout season. For the first time in his career Leclaire registered better statistics than his stablemate, but the season contains a monster asterik as he only played 14 games. At this point Leclaire has struggled to produce better statistics than Alexei Volkov, Danny Dallaire, Jonathan Cayer, Karl Goehring and Fred Braithwaite. 
In 2006, Leclaire received the call to the NHL. Question, if he was not the 8th pick overall would he have been anywhere near Columbus in 2006? Leclaire's debut marginally outdistanced the immortal tandem of Martin Prusek and Marc Denis (a former overrated Quebecois washout). At this point Doug Maclean was probably blaming this pick on head coach Dave King.
With the Jackets dealing Marc Denis the starting goaltending job was handed to Leclaire. Once again a GM pushing a goaltender because of his own mistake. With an NHL starting opportunity handed to him Leclaire got injured, with Leclaire on the sidelines Fredrik Norrena became the starter and lead the Jackets to a .500 record, with Leclaire between the pipes Columbus struggled along at a .304 winning percentage. But their was light at the end of the tunnel as Ken Hitchcock arrived with defensive system in hand.
The breakout. During 2008 Pascal Leclaire finally justified his 8th overall selection. With nine shutouts Leclaire ascended to an 8th place finish in goaltending efficiency and took the fantasy world by storm. During a contract year Leclaire enjoyed the greatest season of his hockey career. He stayed healthy and finally fulfilled his potential. The Jackets fell all over themselves to sign him to a $4M contract and lock up their franchise goaltender. I am sure Ken Hitchcock's fingerprints were not on this turnaround.
With monster contract in tow and fantasy owners latching on to his 2008 breakout season Leclaire got injured....again. With Leclaire out for the season the Jackets summoned Steve Mason from the minors and Scott Howson spent the next 3 months trying to figure out a way to unload Leclaire. Howson finally found a sucker...I mean trading partner in the Senators. Pierre McGuire and Sens fan can drink the Kool-Aid if they like, but McGuire who relies on his expert scouting should follow the scouts advice of "never begin with the end in mind". When a player has proven to be injury prone and over 11 seasons has been succesful in only one, then the trend suggests that the ten seasons are the norm, not the other way around. The Sens have not solved their goaltending problem, they have inherited another $4M albatross to replace Martin Gerber. If Clouston manages to implement a strong defensive system Leclaire's numbers may be artificially propped up, but don't expect him to earn the starting job on merit. He is NOT better than Patrick Lalime, Ray Emery and Ron Tugnutt and the Sens fans can look forward to more sporadic goaltending. If you want to hope for the best, pray that Brian Elliott is the real deal, because the odds of it being Pascal Leclaire are slim.
So Pierre McGuire can scream at the top of his lungs all he likes, it does not make his assesment correct.
So in honour of Pierre McGuire. "PASCAL LECLAIRE iS NOT THE GREATEST GOALTENDER THAT THE OTTAWA SENATORS HAVE EVER HAD!" - Chris Boyle
Make sure to hit the goaliepost for daily goaltending updates.
7 comments:
Fantastic. I absolutely love the no-nonsense analysis this site provides.
Pierre likes to get fans riled up. I know I used to listen to Bill Waters and he had the same style: work fans into a frenzy about how great their team will be and they will come back for more.
As a Leafs fan living in Ottawa, I am trying to put out the Leclaire fire right now and posts like this are about as conclusive as it gets.
Keep up the good work!
Yeah, I dont get why they'd be excited about him? My one sens friend shrugged when I asked him about it, this trade makes no sense to me whatsoever.
minor complaint Just from a reading prospective, cut down on the amount of years examined, or combine them even, the result would be the same stats wise and I can have less Ladislav in my life.
Always appreciate the feedback.
THe whole reason behind "The Numbers" is to give a comprehensive look at the numbers. I am establishing that I am not taking short cuts, I am not manipulating his numbers. If I combine, I leave myself open to be questioned.
Seeing as Leclaire has only played 11 years, I figured it would be unjust to cut out any years. If it was a dissection of Martin Brodeur, then maybe I would have considered chopping it into sections.
Would you consider Leclaire a good buy-low going into next year with the potential of playing for Ottawa?
I would have to research Coulston's history and look at who the Sens add in the summer.
I don't believe is an elite goaltender, so his value is entirely dependant upon his support system.
On first glance I would assume no, but I would not make that statement without suffcient research.
Chris, generally I love your takes but I have a slight difference of opinion here.
I understand that you like to evaluate goalies based on stats, but I was able to see Leclaire play last year multiplie times and when healthy (important caveat, I know!) he is as good as any goalie in the league.
His legs are so quick that you have to see him live to fully appreciate it. He used those garish, bright red pads in Columbus (and just ask Fleury or Price how the bright pads worked out!) and I swear that they were shorter relative to the length of his leg than any other goalie I've seen. Most tenders these days (Lundqvist is a good example) have these super tall thigh-rises on their pads (the length of pad that rises above their knee) that helps them artificially close of the 5-hole.
The injury history alone should be enough to scare fantasy owners away, and likely would have nixed the trade to Ottawa had a 2nd round pick not been included with him.
BUT, based on talent and performance when healthy, IMO he is clearly a superior goalie over the other guys you mention.
Ottawa fans will love or hate that trade based on the amount of time Pascal spends on the IR. But hey, you want to give the young "star" Elliott some time, right?
Thanks for the comments Matt.
I don't believe Elliott will be a star, from what I have seen of him I believe he is no different than Emery or the majority of most goaltenders. I only say that Elliott is the better hope then Leclaire.
I understand what you are saying about Leclaire, but goaltenders do not make the NHL without skill. The Luongo's of the world combine great technique, athletiscism, concentration, demeanour, intelligence and anticipation.
If a goaltender posseses some of those skills at an elite level he will be a backup, if he possess 3-4 of those skills he will be a solid NHL goaltender, my goal is to identify the ones who possess the majority if not all those skills.
Leclaire is a product of the Patrick Roy generation. He no doubt has some spectacular skills, so did Tim Thomas and it took him 10+ years to make the NHL. I just find it difficult to believe that a guy who is that good would struggle to unseat a handful of mediocre goaltenders. Over 10+ years his skills would surely have risen him above his contemporaries.
It is why I was diligent in including 10+ years. I tend to accept what 300+ games tells me, not 54.
But I am here to present my opinion, I welcome your perspective and as always it remains up to you to figure out whether I am shoveling it or not.
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