Every since Tim Thomas signed his 4 year $20M contract extension my email has been full of people mocking my article on the ascension of Tuukka Rask. Was I wrong? Yes, Tuukka Rask will not likely win the Calder next season. But in the long run I believe this is a terrible move.
I am not even going to get into Thomas' performance. This contract locks him in at $5M per season until he is 39 years old!
It also poses a roadblock for Tuukka Rask until he is 26.
So entering the 2010-11 season with a collapsing American economy and a rumour of a $47M salary cap how do the Bruins look with 6 players locked into $31M?
How does this affect their unsigned core?
• Marc Savard will be 33 years old and in his prime and has not registered a season with less than 60 assists in 4 seasons. What is his worth?
• Blake Wheeler will be 24 years old and is coming off a rookie season where with bonuses have earned him close to 3M. If he progresses like expected what is he worth?
• Phil Kessel needs to be re-upped this summer. He has doubled his career goal scoring output this season with 31. At 21 years old what will his value be? Jordan Staal just signed a 4 year deal at $4m per season. He has played 240 games and has 112 career points, Kessel has played 219 games and has 120 career points. Staal 62 goals, Kessel 61 goals. What is Kessel's worth?
• David Krejci also needs a new contract. He is 23 years old and has had a monster year. With 72 points in 77 games what type of raise is Krejci looking at?
David Krejci - 99 pts in 139 games (.712 PPG) - ????
Players from the 2003 draft that resigned before there RFA season with similar numbers:
Corey Perry - 123 pts in 208 games (.591 PPG) - $5.125M per
Andrei Kostitsyn - 67 pts in 112 games (.598 PPG) - $3.25M per
Thomas Vanek - 132 pts in 163 games (.809 PPG) - $7.143M per
Nathan Horton - 131 pts in 208 games (.629 PPG) - $4M per
Mike Richards - 141 pts in 211 games (.668 PPG) - $5.75M per
Jeff Carter - 132 pts in 225 games (.586 PPG) - $5M per
Ryan Getzlaf - 179 pts in 216 games (.828 PPG) - $5.32M per
Looking at these numbers, what is Krejci's worth?
• Milan Lucic. The next Cam Neely. This guy is loved in Boston, he is going nowhere, he needs to be re-upped after next season. What is he worth?
• Is Tuukka Rask a part of the Bruins future? If so, he will also be an RFA after 2010. With rookie bonuses he is earning over $3M per season, what is his worth?
• What about Mark Stuart?
Let's make a conservative estimate on these players worth.
$52 Million dollars on 12 players. Even if the cap remained at $56M the Bruins now need to sign 12 players with $4M. 12 players making the league minimun would earn 5.4M.
What if the cap drops close to $10M like some suggest? Where does that leave the first place Bruins? Who do they dump? Do they attempt to save $ by burying Rask in the minors and sign a $750K backup like a Ty Conklin? Do they dump Kobasew or Ryder? Do they need to unload one of Wheeler/Kessel/Krejci?
Let's say the untouchables are Savard, Lucic, Krejci and Rask and they dump Ryder, Sturm and Kessel, they leave Rask in the minors and sign a cheap backup. Now they are sitting at 33.6M for 8 players. At $47M that leaves 14M for 16 players. How is this team going to maintain their lofty ranking with that 8 man core? Are Joe Colborne, Brad Marchand, Zach Hamill, Keven Regan and Matt Hunwick going to be ready to deliver impact seasons at bargain rates like Kessel and Krejci have this season? What type of cheap prospect would they need to acquire for Kessel to bridge his loss?
This is a monster price to pay in order to keep a 35 year old goaltender coming off a career season. Would you sign Thomas today if you knew you are going to lose Savard after next year?Where is the replacement for Savard in the minors making half his $5M ticket? Because there is one in Providence to replace Thomas at half the price. This signing and the Ryder deal are going to hurt the Bruins down the road.
This teams window has been reduced to this year and next, the 2011 Bruins will not look like the contender you see before you today. Chiarelli has gambled big time that Thomas is in the Brodeur/Belfour/Roy/Hasek class and will be a $5M player throughout his late 30s.
This has red flags all over it and I amazed that Chiarelli took the Doug Risebrough patented "easy way out". The fans wanted this move, but if you listen to the fans to much, you end up sitting with them.
The next installment of cap woes will likely revolve around the Philadelphia Flyers and their desperate attempt to unload Daniel Briere. With Coburn up for a new deal, no goaltender signed through next season and $40M wrapped up in 9 players, the Flyers will be looking at a monster hole in 2011 if the cap drops as anticipated.
Ignorance is bliss, but these chickens will come home to roost Just like wall street lived without an eye towards tomorrow, these GMs will pay the price in the very near future.
Pretty simple to mock individuals who don't tow the party line.
12 comments:
hmm no argument about the deal, its terrible all around, unless they felt that Rask just wasnt the long term answer?
Anyway do you know if a team has a $56 roster... and the cap goes down to say $46... what does that mean? is there a luxury tax or do they have to start chopping payroll like mad?
You cannot start the season over the cap, so teams will have to be cautious in their approach entering 2011.
By this move it is obvious Chiarelli is going for it in the next year and a bit and will deal with the consequences next summer.
If they don't win a cup by 2010 they will have painted themselves into a little corner and will have to let Savard walk and dump/trade the remaining players to get them under the cap.
Look at all the things Burke had to do because he overspent. He gave away McDonald for essentially nothing.
But he won a cup, so his gamble paid off.
If Thomas does have a good season next year, his contract will be movable and perhaps Rask will be more game ready... In 2 years, Savard will be 35 and perhaps they'll have enough youth maturing so that he can be replaced. I agree that most of your salary estimate were conservative, but I believe Krecji could be fetched at a cheaper price.
Thomas will be 36 years old and making $5M per season. I don't think that contract will be easily dealt outside of a monster dump.
Savard will be a UFA next summer at 33. So that means the decision will have to be made on him next summer. It will be his last major contract, he will not likely offer up a discount. If they have to pay him big $$ then they will have already made their decision on Kessel and Krejci. So outside of a player who is under the radar emerging, they will not have that luxury to wait until he is 35.
As for Krejci, you may think they can get him cheaper, but I assure you his agent knows ALL of those comparable's.
Hm, well, this is certainly interesting, and there is going to be a lot of interesting summer discussions. However, Chiarelli's puzzle is finally coming together with the pieces they've gathered since he took over. I do believe there is some underlying reason for these moves, but, it might also just be like the Celtics, immediate return to a fan base, and worry about the consequences in a couple years. If they end up bring the Cup home, there will be a little leway from the fans. It's a gamble for sure, but this team is strong this year.
It is a roll of the dice, but if the Bruins come up short and somebody aggressively pursues Kessel/Krejci as RFAs and forces the Bruins to match an inflated salary, what happens to their chances next season?
They have a 12 month window to win the Cup and then they will be shedding salaries like crazy.
They better hope the Canes or RAngers come through on Tuesday, because I don't believe they will beat the Pens.
I've already come to terms with the fact that we're not keeping both Phil and David. I'd prefer to keep Krejci. Since Thomas has had the chance to be the starter, he's improved every year, and has little wear on him. He certainly does not, and will never have the resume of Brodeur, but it is shown that players can go for many years. I just don't believe Chiarelli has built such an powerful team to simply let it fall apart. They already have an idea of who they want to keep and who they will let walk. I think Kessel is one of those odd men out.
If the cap drops 7-10M it won't be just Krejci or Kessel that goes. Which is why I ask, is a 36-37 year old Tim Thomas THAT much better than a 23-24 year old Tuuka Rask?
Has Thomas improved? Or the defensive zone coverage? Personally, he looks like the same goaltender to me. But most people are more in love with the rags to riches story than the common sense one, the one which the Bruins improve their defensive commitment under a great coach and cut down on scoring opportunites (rebounds, breakaways, odd man rushes, zone coverage etc) which allows a career journeyman to cut his GAA and SV% dramatically between the ages of 33-35, a time when a player is exiting his prime and is not physically improving. Call me crazy.
As for Chiarelli not allowing it to fall apart, it happens all the time in the world of Cap sports. Teams rise and have their knees cut out by the salary cap. The way to success is on the continuous development of cheap players who are outperforming their contracts. When Kessel and Krejci get theirs, then the Bruins need another Krejci/Kessel to step in and outperform their number and so on, and so on.
Without this type of continual restocking, the team will stagnate when the players earn their keep. As long as Julien is coaching, the defense will be solid, but the dynamic scoring that launched the Bruins from 8th to contender will not exist.
Most teams draft well with high picks, but with success comes low picks and a much bigger challenge. Chiarelli needs to pull some more Lucic/Krejci's out of his ass, or the Bruins will drop back to the pack.
"If the cap drops 7-10M it won't be just Krejci or Kessel that goes. Which is why I ask, is a 36-37 year old Tim Thomas THAT much better than a 23-24 year old Tuuka Rask?"
It all starts with goal tending does it not? I've seen Rask many times in Providence, but that is AHL level play.
At this point, I'd have to assume yes, it is better. Just because he's younger does not mean he's better.
But does it start with goaltending?
The Wings success does not start with Chris Osgood, does it?
The Flyers have been a contender for the better part of 25 years with Bob Froese, Ron Hextall, Garth Snow, Roman Cechmanek, Robert Esche and Martin Biron.
Roberto Luongo didn't make the playoffs for the first 7 years of his career.
You build from the back end out and goaltending is important. But if you placed Luongo in goal for the Canadiens against the Bruins, do they win that series? If you replaced Josh Gorges with Niklas Lidstrom, how much does that change the series?
I have seen plenty of strong defensive teams make a bad goaltender look great, but I have never seen a strong goaltender make a bad defensive team look great.
AS for the cap. I am only repeating what has been said a million times. With the numbers down in basketball for season ticket renewals, as well as the early season baseball numbers being down, it is unlikely the cap will remain stagnant and more likely that it will fall.
I've heard two differing stories, but I don't know which is correct. Wasn't the big reason for signing him the fact that he is under 35, and so there won't be as much of a cap hit if they end up buying him out?
"When a player aged 35 or older signs a multi-year contract, his average salary is counted against the team's salary cap during every year of the contract, even if the player retires before the contract is up."
The Bruins rushed to sign him in order to avoid this provision from the CBA. It is why they did not wait until the end of the season.
If you buyout a player, granted he is over 26, they are owed 2/3 of their contract paid out over double the remaining years left on the deal.
So the only sensible buyout remains after 3 seasons when he is signed for only $3M. Therefore the cap hit is limited at $1M over 2 seasons. But if they try to buy it out with 2 years left then the buyout is $1.32M per season over 4 years.
I don't think this deal was structured with the thought of buying him out. It does not really allow them a window to get rid of him when they will really need the cap space, this summer and next.
I ask again. Are the Bruins so dependant on Thomas that they can allow an elite young talent like Krejci or Kessel to walk? Do they need him more than Marc Savard? What happens with Lucic and Wheeler?
They have a lot of problems moving forward.
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