Steve Mason - Best Debut Ever?

Six months ago when I began this blog I essentially was firing off posts by the seat of my pants. I was taking thoughts and creating defenses for what I was saying with no true interest in the truth. It lead me to annointing Carey Price as the author of one of the greatest debut's for a twenty year old goaltender. Although my assesment was partially correct when factoring in playoff results, I failed to even the playing field by adjusting statistics for each era. 

Comparing Tom Barrasso's SV% to Carey Price was ultimately unfair when during the 1983-84 season only one starting goaltender registered a +.900 SV% and the majority of the league finished in the .880 range. Add in wins garnered through shootouts and that in 2008 the league registered close to three times the shutouts, it ultimately lead to a skewed version that offered up Price's season in a more impressive light. The right way to do it is to compare his numbers in regards to his peers during his rookie season, not compare them from different era's.

Fortunately Steve Mason offered me the opportunity to do it correctly as he has registered one of the best rookie season's by a goaltender in post expansion history. I have read and heard in plenty of places that Pekka Rinne should win the Calder and that what he has accomplished is more impressive because of the strength of his team in relation to Mason's. But this is mostly based on media conjecture.

• Pekka Rinne is 26 years old, 6 years older and mature than Mason. 

• The Predators have made the playoffs four times in a row, the Jackets have never made the playoffs. So why is it assumed that Mason plays on a weaker team? The Jackets are not exactly stacked with All-Stars

• Dan Ellis put up essentially the same numbers on a team that is very similar to 2009 and Chris Mason put up almost identical numbers in 2007.

So what is more impressive? A goaltender that is accomplishing something that has rarely been accomplished in the last 40 years, or a goaltender who is essentially mimicking the two previous seasons by two journeymen?

Why is this even a discussion?

I understand that Mason is putting up these numbers under Ken Hitchcock and is being well insulated, but the composure he possesses for a 20 year old is unbelievable. If it was something that was easy to accomplish then 20 year olds would be regular in the NHL.

Since expansion thirteen goaltenders 20 years old or less have started 30+ games in the NHL. Thirteen in 41 seasons. Peers like Brodeur, Luongo, Ward, Miller, Lundqvist, Turco and Nabokov did not become starters in the NHL until after their 21st Birthday.

As of today Steve Mason ranks first in NHL goaltender efficiency ranking, only one goaltender aged 20 or less has ranked 1st and that was Tom Barrasso who registered his Calder/Vezina double straight out of high school in 1984 at the age of 18.

I adjusted the following efficiency rankings to compensate for a league that has moved from 12 to 30 teams. It would be disingenuous to rank John Davidson ahead of Carey Price because he ranked 12th in a 16 team league as opposed to Price who accomplished it in a 30 team league. Although they both would look equal, one goaltender is ranked among the bottom 25% while one would be ranked in the upper half.

After adjusting the rankings Mason is virtually equal to Barrasso's rookie season, the only reason I ranked Barrasso ahead of him is because he accomplished his numbers two seasons younger than Mason.

Mason's 2009 season places him in rarified air, but it is no guarantee of future success. Jim Carey, Jocelyn Thibault and John Davidson's NHL careers flamed out fairly quickly. Don Beaupre became a solid but unspectacular veteran, but he is surrounded by Stanley Cup winners and Hall of Famers and has accomplished a level of success while the majority of his peers toiled in the minor leagues.

Anybody with any sense of hockey history should be pushing for the Vezina/Calder combo, but I think the Tim Thomas story will resonate and Mason will have to settle for the rookie of the year. Anybody who votes for Pekka Rinne is just not doing their homework.

As for Carey Price, his ranking improves if you add in playoff impact, as only Patrick Roy won more playoff /series before the age of 21. Either way, both are fantasy league keepers. I don't expect Mason to falter as badly as Price next season (the Hitchcock factor), but I wouldn't be surprised to see him suffer some inconsistencies before he reinvents himself like Cam Ward has this season.

Odds and Ends

Brian Elliott has been solid for the Sens, but I think I will leave my assessment at solid. He ranks 16th in wins per start, 19th in GAA, 17th in SV% and 30th in shutouts per start. All those numbers are marginally better than the Sens mediocre league ranking. Are these numbers going to impact your fantasy team? Considering Alex Bald is equaling those numbers in three of the four categories, I am marginally impressed...........I am generally entertained by sites like Baseball Prospectus, but their effort to translate their evaluations to hockey have a long way to go. In baseball the factors are essentially equal. Everybody is offered essentially the same opportunity for success. The number one hitter is not offered any advantage over the number 9 hitter. A pitcher's stats are not compromised by poor defense as errors are not counted against a pitchers statistics. In hockey how can you equally judge statistics when a player's production is affected by his linemates? His +/- ranking could be affected by a mistake by his goaltender or defenseman even though he is perfectly positioned. Goaltender's numbers are dramatically altered in regards to how committed their team is to defense. Already they have listed Tim Thomas as the MVP and Yann Danis as the player who has offered up the most quality starts. How can Thomas be the most valuable player in the league when Manny Fernandez has eseentially the same winning percentage behind the same defense? I appreciate the effort they are making, but they are in the infancy and have a long way to go................Cam Ward has been outstanding this season and was well deserving off the player of the month for March. As a Hab fan, I am hoping he can beat the Rangers in regulation...................I think Ken Holland is bored. After multiple President's trophies and four Stanley Cups, I think he has decided that he is going to win the Stanley Cup with the guy from Weekend at Bernie's manning the pipes..................So much for Marty Turco's resurgance. In March he is 5-7-2 with a 2.95 GAA and a .900 SV%. His early season numbers were so awful that his owners would have loved for him to have started the season like he played in March. Is the Kiprusoff winning 50 games talk officially over?......................I am interested to see how Evegni Nabokov fares in the 2009 Playoffs. It is interesting how when teams lose in the playoffs the goaltender is usually blamed, but in San Jose and Boston, the lack of playoff success has been placed at the feet of Joe Thornton.........................The media is at it again. Claiming the Wings and Sharks don't want to play the Anaheim Ducks. Last year the Pens should be worried about the playoff tested Senators, it is the same song and dance every season. The Ducks are not the same team as the 2007 Champions, no more than the Stars are the team that made the Conference Finals last year or the Canadiens the 2008 Eastern Conference leaders. The Canucks are flying pretty low on the radar, and I really don't understand why. Since Feb 1st they are 20-4-1, Luongo has finally beginning to dominate again and Mats Sundin is starting to get his legs and provide secondary scoring. This should be the team everybody should be talking about, instead the Jokinen deal helped them lay low for an extra couple of weeks. They have sneaky scoring depth and outstanding goaltending and have plenty of traits of a team that can grind out playoff wins......................How does Wayne Gretzky still have a job? Oh yeah, he is the owner.