In order to establish a ranking the yahoo default league scoring has been used to judge who had the best roto performance among all NHL players through March.Skaters :
Goals/Assists/Plus-Minus/Power Play Points/PIMS/Shots on Goal
Goaltenders :
Wins/Goals Against Average/Save Percentage/Shutouts
Alexander Ovechkin reclaims the top spot and the glory of being the number one roto player for 2009.
Ovechkin and Malkin were neck and neck, but 550+ shots? That difference was the equivalent of adding a mid range forwards shot production to your roster. That was the deciding factor.
Below I have provided each player and their contribution in each category. Every square marked red indicates whether the player can produce more than the corresponding number. So if Malkin produces over 30 goals it will be indicated with a red square, under 30 goals will be represented by a grey square. I have also provide each players monthly rotisserie ranking and an arrow indicating their monthly movement, green for up, red for down.
Now remember this is the result of weighing all categories equally which rotisserie rankings do. Being number one in goal scoring is the same as being number one in penalty minutes. The top 100 favours skaters as they occupy 60% of the scoring categories, but dominant goaltenders are recognized.
Can Ovechkin be any more consistent? The guy is a machine and is the most exciting player in the NHL. How many goals would he have scored in 1986? 100?
Malkin has been as good as he is ugly. But as the new kid on the block, he is beginning to become overrated. The Crosby backlash has created a perception that Malkin has been a far superior player, but is that hyperbole or true? Here are Crosby's numbers projected through 82 games.
Is it possible to go from severely overrated (ie. Gretzky claiming in an era where goals are scored at 75% of the 80s, that Crosby could break his records) to underrated by the age of 21? Malkin is a great player, but he has made it a three horse race, nothing more, nothing less.
Do you think that Paul Holmgren knew how good Mike Richards and Jeff Carter were? With 42M wrapped up in 13 players (with no goalie and a yet to be signed Coburn extension) in 2011 with a spiraling cap, I am saying NO, because if he did, he wouldn't have locked in Daniel Briere until his 26th birthday.
Sid the Kid underrated? Looking at his age splits, I believe that fantasy keeper owners need to take a closer look at whether he has had his breakout year yet.
Thomas should be happy he plays hockey and not baseball, because journeymen whose numbers improve to All-Star calibre at the age of 34 would not escape unscathed. Can somebody provide a picture from Vermont so we can check his head size? If he is sharing hats with Zdeno Chara, then something is up.
Perry had a monster finish with 13 pts (8G, 5A) in his final 9 games. That finish allowed him to vault 3 spots into 6th. He is on the verge of a 5 category stud and the best RW in fantasy.
Sid the Kid underrated? Looking at his age splits, I believe that fantasy keeper owners need to take a closer look at whether he has had his breakout year yet.
Thomas should be happy he plays hockey and not baseball, because journeymen whose numbers improve to All-Star calibre at the age of 34 would not escape unscathed. Can somebody provide a picture from Vermont so we can check his head size? If he is sharing hats with Zdeno Chara, then something is up.
Perry had a monster finish with 13 pts (8G, 5A) in his final 9 games. That finish allowed him to vault 3 spots into 6th. He is on the verge of a 5 category stud and the best RW in fantasy.
Part two of the dynamic duo. How good can these two be? If I was going to compare them to a previous NHL duo, it would be Stan Mikita and Bobby Hull, not on talent, but hair folicles. Somebody needs to tell Getzlaf that the comb forward isn't working, we can all tell.
Hossa is getting a lot of fantasy love this year, but when comparing his 2008 numbers to 2009, he has to be considered a disappointment. Not because his numbers are not good, but because he dropped almost 4 minutes of ice time per game and lost a minute and a half of PP time. That will put a major dent in your production.
If Parise had a tiny bit of the crazy streak that allowed his father to almost slash referee Josef Kompalla in the 72 Summit Series then he would be a 6 category stud, unfortunately Zach is unlikely to ever make an impact in the PIMs department.
What type of numbers would Green have put up if he had played 14 more games? Who says you can't pluck franchise players outside of the top 5, the Caps did when they stole Green at 29 from a pick they acquired from the Wings for Robert Lang.
Hossa is getting a lot of fantasy love this year, but when comparing his 2008 numbers to 2009, he has to be considered a disappointment. Not because his numbers are not good, but because he dropped almost 4 minutes of ice time per game and lost a minute and a half of PP time. That will put a major dent in your production.
If Parise had a tiny bit of the crazy streak that allowed his father to almost slash referee Josef Kompalla in the 72 Summit Series then he would be a 6 category stud, unfortunately Zach is unlikely to ever make an impact in the PIMs department.
What type of numbers would Green have put up if he had played 14 more games? Who says you can't pluck franchise players outside of the top 5, the Caps did when they stole Green at 29 from a pick they acquired from the Wings for Robert Lang.
Top 10 talent, but for me, because of his injury history, Semin has stained his reputation.
Talk about highs and lows. One month ago Backstrom signed a long term deal with the Wild and looked to be a fantasy lock, but with Jacques Lemaire leaving it will be interesting to see if the Wild keep the same philosophy, or shift gears. If they decide to shift gears, Backstrom's numbers will take a hit.
After a torrid early March, Richards pushed himself into the top 10, but 8 scoreless games and a -10 rating in his last 14 games hurt his early gains.
Everybody has been looking for the 2006 Eric Staal, well if you have been watching Carolina recently, there he was. Since March 1st, Staal had 26 pts (13G/13A) in 18 games. I really like the Canes in these playoffs, as far as I am concerned, the two best goalies in the league right now are Ward and Luongo.
You think Datysuk's success has anything to do with him having his eyes on the sides of his head? Literally, his eyes are on the side of his head.
Sedin is an Anti-Kovalev's. His monthly breakdowns show how consistent he is.
Oct: 8 pts/11 games
Nov: 13 pts/14 games
Dec: 16 pts/14 games
Jan: 10 pts/12 games
Feb: 11 pts/11 games
March/Apr: 23 pts/22 games
I wonder if Savard's future lies in Boston after Thomas recently signed for $5M per. That contract coupled with Michael Ryder's is going to bite them in the ass very soon.
Zetterberg 12 yrs/Franzen 11 yrs? Ken Holland has entered the Glen Sather in the mid 90's mode. He could sign Marian Gaborik to a 19 year deal and people would hail it as revolutionary. Maybe I am missing something, but in every other cap sport, flexibility is essential, 10+ year deals are extremely risky.
Kovalchuk has been fantastic since he became captain of the Thrashers. In his last 36 games:
Kovalchuk: 27G/21A/48P/+1/21 PIM/15 PPP/138 SOG
Ovechkin: 27G/26A/53P/-5/20 PIM/24 PPP/246 SOG
Malkin: 17G/27A/44P/+3/32 PIM/17 PPP/126 SOG
Crosby: 17G/35A/52P/-2/17 PIM/20 PPP/105 SOG
Those are elite numbers and compare favourably to Ovechkin outside of his ridiculous shot totals.
Iginla has been replaced as the best RW in fantasy and his offensive numbers have now declined for the third consecutive year. At only 31 a bounce back is possible, but with 2 out of the last three seasons with 40 PIMs or less, you have to wonder if the PIMs will ever return.
Souray is your prototypical fantasy player. All of his greatest attributes are rewarded in roto hockey. He has a booming shot, he is a PP specialist who is constantly fed shooting opportunities and is tough as nails. That is enough to cover off 4 of 6 categories and make him one of the most sought after defensemen in fantasy. If blown defensive zone coverages and outlet passes were negative categories, he wouldn't be in the top 100.
Pencil Heatley in for 40 goals per year. It is almost a guarantee if he is healthy. Should the Sens rebound next season, Heatley should return to being a + player and a five category contributor.
The light has gone on. Literally and figuratively.
And to think Mike Milbury traded Chara and Spezza for Alexei Yashin. Yet this guy is working for 4-5 networks giving hockey advice? Bertuzzi, Jokinen, Luongo, DiPietro, Heatley, it goes on and on and on.
See 24. I am not a Spezza fan, and was not surprised to see him raise his game with the firing of Hartsburg.
I would love to see Gary Bettman return the franchise he borrowed to Winnipeg and watch Doan finish out his career where it began.
You know a team has cap issues when they can't afford to fill out their full roster to end the season. But I am sure they have enough to give Cammalleri his $5M per season, just one of the reasons I thought the Jokinen deal was a big mistake. 13 players at $50M? Bye bye Mike. 
Next season is an even numbered year, so you can book Elias for 45-55 points. The Brett Saberhagen of hockey.
Langenbrunner is the 5th ranked RW. Did I mention that right wing is lacking in depth?
One of these things is not like the others,
One of these things just doesn't belong,
Can you tell which thing is not like the others
By the time I finish my song?
Did you guess which thing was not like the others?
Did you guess which thing just doesn't belong?
If you guessed this one is not like the others,
Then you're absolutely...right!
I don't like happy Dion. What I want to see is the Flames and Rangers going out in the first round and Phaneuf and Avery being named to Team Canada. Can somebody make this happen?
As the hair gets longer, the stats get better. Coincidence? I think not. 
When Jacques Lemaire announced his intentions to leave Minnesota I bet that Mikko Koivu had his car gassed up and his keys ready for him. Don't let the door hit you in the ass on your way out Jacques. Now if Gaborik sticks around, Koivu's ceiling gets higher, well, for the 40 games Gaborik will play it does.
Injury was responsible for Lecavalier's late season drop, it should be an interesting off season for Vinny as the Montreal rumours will continue to swirl.
If you removed Dec 8th to Feb 19th from Shea Weber's 2009 resume he would have 45 points in 49 games. See how easy stats are to manipulate.
He is trying to suck me back in! It will not work. I will not eat the apple.
Gagne made it through the season concussion free. Now if somebody could outfit him with one of those Mark Kelso gazoo helmets, I might draft him next season.
I really believe that Kane's numbers suffered from his high ankle sprain. After he suffered the sprain on December 30th he struggled for 6 weeks producing only 5 points in 17 games. Remove that stretch and he is a point per game guy. See, I did it again.
Although he should cruise to the Calder trophy, his ranking plummeted over the final 6 weeks as Mason registered some pretty mediocre numbers. He slumped to the finish line with a 9-6-4 record and a 2.62 GAA and a .906 SV%, impressive for 20, but a stark contrast to the rest of his season.
Solid, but unspectacular.
Who was Holland negotiating against? Djurgårdens IF? Why 11 years?
Kovalev is so talented that in a contract year he decided to take 2 months off and add some zeroes to his next contract over his last 10 games. Over those 10 games he had 17 points, a total it took him 2 and a half months to produce between Jan 10 and March 21st. 65 pts in 78 games is not as disgraceful as 48 pts in 68 games.
If Jason Blake is your best player, odds are it was a long year.
Watching Rob Blake finish up the 2009 campaign was like watching Miami University trying to finish off Boston U. The heart was there, but the legs were not.
Backstrom finished up strong with 33 points in his final 28 games. Ovechkin and Backstrom are going to put up monster numbers for the next 10 years.
One wonders how long Sergei Puckisin can remain among the elite. Puckisin's production has declined for three seasons in a row and 33 year old 6 inch forwards usually don't get better with age.
The Six-Million Dollar Man finished up strong and I expect him to comeback next season better than he was before. Better, stronger....faster.
I am amazed that Brown held onto a top 50 spot after taking the last 6 weeks off. Over the last 21 games Brown had 5 pts (1G/4A), a -9, 10 PIMs, 0 PPP and 51 SOG. I think he owes the Kings $800,000.
See last month.
Marleau struggled with injuries down the stretch and likely would have been higher if he remained healthy.
13 comments:
Hey, do you think its time to implement a gretzky rule on OV's sog? He single handedly ensures whoever owns him will get a giant 10 on SOG and its not even close. at least in goals, hes only outscoring the rest of the league by like 10% but shooting almost 60%more then the rest of the league
He is ridiculous. But the only reason there was a Gretzky rule was because most pools operated on points alone.
Having Gretzky in the mid 80s was like having 11 guys to 10 for the rest of the league.
For OV it is only one of 10 categories, so the damage is minimized. If he wasn't such a well rounded player the SOG would not vault him to the top, anymore than Laraque would if he amassed 400 PIMs
I dont hate the contracts Holland signed. They are at decent money for players with a proven production level. The yearly savings on Zette's deal particularly... where he likely would have commanded $8 mil a year (recent economy argument aside) means they can sign an extra great player every year.
What if one of them peaks early and turns into Kirk Muller from 1995-2000 and you are paying them a first line wage for a 4th line player?
What if one of them suffers a Pavel Bure like injury and they never recover?
Look at DiPietro. Even if he had established himself as an elite level goaltender, the Isles are now stuck with an untradeable asset locked onto the books for over a decade.
What if this global slowdown ends up with the loss of 3-4 teams? Now the market is flooded with more players making them cheaper. The cap then drops and stars are now re-upping for 5-6M per.
None of us can read the future, and that has been readily apparent in the collapse of the past 12 months. When GMs were estimating the cap to be 60M+ instead of the likely 45-50M range.
I will continue to maintain that cap flexibility is more important based on the blueprint established in basketball and football.
Zetterberg I can somewhat understand, Franzen, not so much.
I have to say I disagree with your Crosby man crush. Projecting stats over an entire season is dangerous.. by your logic we should prorate Gaborik at:
63G 48A 111P +14 10PIM 34PPP 328SOG
HEY GUYS TRADE AWAY CROSBY AND MALKIN FOR GABORIK. BIG 4 HERE WE COME.
The point is, Crosby didn't play 82 games this year and Malkin did.
Also you like to compare Malkin last year to Crosby this year quoting their age. Sure age is a contributing factor in development and you can argue that Crosby still has more room to improve, but let me point you to the fact that Malkin had not played in the NHL until the 06-07 season. So instead of comparing Crosby age 21 vs Malkin age 21 compare Crosby 2 years pro vs Malkin 2 years pro. Or even better, as a sign of development, let's compare Crosby's improvement rate compared to Malkin. Hrmm in 4 years in the NHL Crosby has improved by 1 point? While in 3 years Malkin has improve by 28?
By picking and choosing what determines equality you skew the stats. The bottom line is Malkin got 113 points this year, Crosby didn't. Malkin is the better fantasy player and DEFINITELY the better real life player.
Why is it that I am consistently accused of bias, and the individual accusing me of bias offers up a biased opinion?
First you compare Crosby to Gaborik. One player played 17 games, while the other played 77. This is your idea of a comparable? Crosby was 5 games short of a complete season, ask any fantasy owner if there is a difference.
Also, you cannot compare first years in the league instead of age. Is it fair to compare Pekka Rinne to Steve Mason? It is both their rookie years, one player is 26 years old, the other is 20. What is more impressive?
Age is important. Mental maturity and physical maturity are huge, especially between the years of 18 and 20. You also talk about improvement rates. And take a bias approach claiming that Malkin has improved more. Well the reason his improvement rate is more impressive is because you are penalizing Crosby for an outstanding debut.
Does that mean Eric Staal projected to be better than Malkin after two years? Because his improvement rate between his two NHL years was 69 points compared to Malkin's 21?
BTW, Comparing their first three years in the league is not as flattering for Malkin as you would like.
Malkin - 242 GP - 304 pts
Crosby - 212 GP - 294 pts
So in the vast majority of fantasy leagues I could plug in essentially a mediocre NHLer who only has to average a point every 3 games to match Malkin's production over the same time span.
All you have proven is that you are biased in favour of Malkin and have not raised any factors as to why Crosby has surpassed Malkin's numbers at the same age through 21. YOu also claimed that Malkin is DEFINITELY the better player with zero evidence or facts to prove the assertion.
I have skewed nothing. My point was that Crosby, Malkin and Ovechkin have been essentially equal this season. I am not claiming that Crosby is better, just that the majority of star players production does not peak at 21, and to write off Crosby as inferior to the other two is unfair.
Join the long list of disgruntled fanboys who get rankled when I do not regurgitate poorly researched opinions on their favourite player.
So your Ken Holland: you've built a continuous stanley cup contender over the past decade or so... your head/scouts/ego is saying how can you possibly be wrong about Zette long term? So if you assume hes great, why not take a couple risk if you believe in it to pile up a couple more championships... and really, if you are wrong it'll be someone elses problem to resolve.
I like the Sather in the 90's comparison, his legacy secure why not try to keep that going with some medium risks? Again If hes wrong, he'll get canned and take a monster offer from whatever rich team is disgruntled and needs a new leader.
Irresponsible arguably, but can he really lose in this scenario?
I dont really like the Muller diss, he was productive in the late 90's no? Wasnt he a huge component in the Stars run to the cup in 99?
Bure is alot closer to Gaborik then Zette, Zette hasnt shown any propensity to injury, not that it cant happen, but thats why they put insurance policies on these contracts.
Dipeitro... how can you compare a completely unproven asset, particularly at goalie, to a top 10forward in the league on the stanley cup champions?
Sure the economy is hurting a bit now, but its hardly going to be permanent, people will slowly start coming out and even if it retracts, are you saying that Zette isnt at least 90-95% of the holy trinity?
The list of players that reached the pinnacle and stayed there well into their late 30's is much longer then the list of guys that flamed out.
comparing hockey contracts to football is poor because football contracts can generally be voided fairly immediately, guys like haynesworth sign a 7 year 110 mil thats really only a 4 yr 48 mil deal meaning he'll be cut/restructured long before he reaches the end of it.
Basketball, the lesson again, is sign your superstars to long term max deals and try to sign great complimentary deals to below market values. See the Spurs as an example. To the NBA's credit they have a maximum length of contract, but your telling me if they had the option teams wouldnt be offering Lebron, Kobe a 20 yr deal?
I agree that Holland has a bulletproof rep, but why not a 7 year deal? Why 12? Why lock in Franzen til he is 40?
Who is he negotiating against during the second half of the contract? Franzen wouldn't have signed a 6 year 22M contract? Was somebody else have offered him 11 years?
I am not here to criticize Holland, his track record indicates he is the best of the best. I just don't understand his thinking. Just like I don't understand what Chiarelli was doing handing Thomas $5M with Kessel and Krejci entering RFA years and Savard becoming a UFA next season.
Agreed on Franzen, you'll hear no arguments from me on him. Those are exactly the type of deals that as you mentioned have the Bruins in their future problem.
Paying 3.8m per for a mediocre forward that has two decent seasons (avg 31 goals) that could probably be replicated by putting almost any competent player in his stead. They clearly know something we dont, or else Franzen's agent has pictures of Holland cross dressing
Muller had 94 pts in 1993 at the age of 27 and was the leader on a Stanley Cup champion team. IN 94 his point total dropped to 57 in 76 games and by 1999 had 15 pts in 82 games at the age of 33. He returned to the Stars as a 4th liner in 2000 after the Cup to finish out his career. Believe me, I loved Muller, but nobody saw his deterioration coming out of nowhere.
I used Bure because he was a dominant player who suffered ONE injury that destroyed his career, same with Cam Neely. Zetterberg could take a knee on knee tonight that shreds his knee, then what?
Zetterberg is no doubt an upper echelon talent and worthy of $6-8M, but I don't understand the unneeded risk on the unknown.
You have made some good points in regards to the cap, but in football they also can renegotiate contracts, in hockey that $6M number is now on the books until 2020. In basketball teams continually misidentify franchise guys and pay them the MAX. Look what the Heat gave Shaq, what if they had given him 12 years? The second half of that deal would look awful and he would not have been tradeable.
You may assume that things will return to normal, but what if season ticket renewal rates crash? In a gate driven league that could lead to contraction or folding of teams.
I understand it is a calculated gamble by Holland, and odds are even when Zetterberg declines he will still be useful like Stevie Y in a different role, but why not 5-7 years? That is my only question.
I prefer flexibility.
First of all, comparing Gaborik to Crosby is obviously a hyperbole. Hence the comical use of Caps Lock. My point is you can't project his stats over 82 games if he hasn't played 82 games. Crosby is projecting to be a player who rarely plays 82 games in a season (I know it may be too early to say this, but that's the impression he gives with his minor injuries), but again I'm not trying to say he's as injury prone as Gaborik. Compare their stats over how many games they've played, not over 82 games.
Is it fair to compare Mason and Rinne? It's not as absurd as you may suggest, they're both in the running for the same trophy, the Calder. And again, the same way I was/am overemphasizing some stats over others to make a point as are you. 1 year is not 6.
Yes age is a factor, so is NHL experience. But age isn't as big of a deal as your trying to imply, especially one year. You talk about physical and mental maturity. Since there is no measure of mental maturity I cannot comment on Malkin being much more mature than Crosby as you suggest, but physical maturity? Who's filled out more of their frame, a 5'11 200lb Crosby or a 6'3 195lb Malkin (NHL.com numbers so don't flame me if you find something more up to date).
Improvement rate is a pointless statistic and it was just an example of how certain numbers can be chosen to make certain players look better.
The "flattering" career statistics your pointing out. A few of Crosby's missed games are "game time decisions" which means a majority of fantasy players will not take him out of their roster. Furthermore, some fantasy leagues have weekly roster changes and/or maximum transaction limits or are even deep enough where no you can't find a player who will even start never mind put up 1/3 of a point per game.
Fine, your rankings are probably set up for your particular league with unlimited transactions and you have the foresight to always know when Crosby will be hurt. Even his average stats (9th in yahoo) this year fall below Malkin (4th).
You say: "Malkin is a great player, but he has made it a three horse race, nothing more, nothing less." That quote suggests Malkin is the inferior of the 3 (just made it a three horse race). I say at this point I would prefer Malkin as would many fantasy owners. Malkin has more than made it a three horse race, he has, for the time being, taken the #2 spot away from Crosby.
Those who suggest it's now the big 2 rather than the big 3 are idiots, but that's not the majority of fantasy players.
Hopefully you won't cast me as a crying fanboy from this post, I have (hopefully) shown you that there is at least a little research behind my accusations, but that's also why this is a comment and not the article.
So let me clarify.
I compared the Big Three's seasons to each other at the same age they were in the league.
I then compared the same three this season and had the audacity to project out 5 games.
I ignored the fact that at 18 Crosby registered maybe the GREATEST season by an 18 year old in NHL history. Better than Lemieux, Yzerman, Hawerchuk etc. (adjusted to take into account the ridiculous high scoring era of the 1980s) That at 19 he became the MVP of the NHL. All with a supporting cast that left something to be desired.
I didn't try to project what Malkin would have produced as an 18 or 19 year old, but it is not a stretch to believe it would have been less than his 85 point rookie season.
He didn't exactly put up monster scoring rates for Magnitogorsk Metallurg, but I am not here to speculate, so I didn't even mention it.
So Crosby is one of three 18 year olds in NHL history to break 100 pts and at 19 becomes the MVP. And you gloss over this and the first season that Malkin registers that is greater than Crosby the assumption is that he is better?
You act as though 5 games is a ridiculous projection to show that they are almost equal. You then pick apart small little statistics to discredit the numbers, without providing anything substantive to prove Malkin is better.
You also jump to every negative conclusion you can. "Malkin is a great player, but he has made it a three horse race, nothing more, nothing less."
You automatically assume that this means I am saying Malkin is inferior. If there are two horses and they are 35 feet ahead of the rest of the field and a third horse narrows the gap to a point where all three are neck and neck, does that imply that the third horse is inferior? NO, it implies that the debate use to involve two players, and NOW there is a third.
I made it clear from the beginning that I feel Crosby has been underrated, not that he is better. I brought up legit factors that are being ignored, I then claimed that it is a three horse race because it is to close to tell, but that Ovechkin and Malkin both had their breakout years at the age of 22 and I would not be surprised if Crosby had his NEXT year.
I never claimed he was better, the whole point is to get people to look at the WHOLE picture and not make judgements based on one season. But you have jumped to the defense of Malkin automatically, it happens on this site EVERY time I post an article, and you are no different.
I appreciate your feedback, I don't care if you believe me or not. That is ultimately your call, but I don't think you have presented enough of an argument to change my viewpoint that Crosby is just as good as Malkin AND Ovechkin.
And THAT was the point of the article.
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