Chris Osgood - The Numbers

Recently I have noticed a concentrated effort by the media to reverse the perception that Chris Osgood is not a great goaltender and a possible Hall of Fame candidate. Some media members are even trying to get him elected to the Canadian Olympic Hockey team.

I don't feel that this is an agenda by the whole media, but it seems as though it is picking up a ton of steam over the last two weeks.

Osgood has no doubt struggled for respect over the last 15 years. From his inital playoff series in which he made a poor judgement that allowed the 8th seeded Sharks to slide the Game 7 winner into an empty net in the waning minutes, to still winning the Cup in 1998 after blowing multiple shots from outside the blueline. His success has been attributed to the dynastic success of the Red Wings.

I am wary of pundits when they begin to use terms like "Big game goalie", makes the "big saves when his team needs them". These are terms that are almost impossible to quantify and hence why they are used in this situation.

There is no need to use these terms. Osgood's numbers rank him among the greatest goaltender's of the last 20 seasons. During my quest to find the best fantasy netminders since 1989, Osgood ranked a solid 7th. His inconsistency and disappearance from fantasy prominence during his Detroit exile did not help his legacy as his ranking dropped to 17th, 34th and 15th. He also was displaced as the starter after he was significantly outperformed by journeyman Manny Legace. How would Patrick Roy or Martin Brodeur be viewed in history if during their prime years (27-30) they failed to produce dramatically superior numbers to Manny Legace, Garth Snow and Brent Johnson?

Is Chris Osgood unfairly maligned? Is he underrated? Or is this recent discussion an attempt to overrate him? Let's take a look at his numbers as I unleash a 2000 word marathon.

Since 2000 when Osgood was supposed to enter his prime his numbers have fallen dramatically. During 5 of his first 6 seasons he managed to finish among the top 10. His sudden decline coincided with his departure from the Wings, and did not help the perception that he was a system goaltender. But how did he perform in relation to his peers?

Osgood enjoyed a strong rookie campaign. As a 21 year old he outdistanced the combination of Tim Cheveldae, Bob Essensa, Vincent Riendeau and Peter Ing. The Wings were a significantly better team with Osgood between the pipes as he matched the 23 wins but managed to chop 14 losses from his peers totals.

A 17th place finish in efficiency was a solid start to his career. Unfortunatley the perception of 1994/Chris Osgood is of him crying in his stall after recklessly giving the puck awayto Jamie Baker late in Game 7.

Osgood followed up his disappointing end to the 1994 season with a strong sophomore campaign. One more start would have made him eligible for my roto rankings and a likely top ten finish. But an emerging powerhouse in Detroit decided to go with the inferior Mike Vernon in the playoffs because of his playoff reputation and experience. After being burnt by Tim Cheveldae in 1993 and Osgood's inexperience in 1994 the Wings played it safe. At 22 years old, Osgood was off to a solid NHL start.

In Osgood's third season the 23 year old registered the best statistical season in the NHL as well as his career. Osgood topped the efficiency rankings for the record setting Red Wings and took the starting job from Mike Vernon. But once again, his reputation was tarnished as the heavily favoured Wings lost to the Avs, a team that trailed Detroit by 27 points in the standings. It is easy to see how his reputation was damaged and a perception about him formed very early in his career.

For the 4th consecutive season the Wings were a better team with Osgood between the pipes. But when the playoffs arrived, the Wings went with the playoff tested Vernon who finally put the Wings over the top as he won the Conn Smythe and lead the Wings to their first Stanley Cup in 42 years. 

The Wings finally handed Osgood the reigns sans safety net in 1998 and he registered a top 10 finish. Without Vernon around he managed to get over the hump and lead the Wings to the Stanley Cup. But when you play goal for a great team it is easy to reduce a goaltenders impact. Looking at the Stanley Cup Finals alone showed a total mismatch as the Wings outshot the Capitals 163-99 in their dominant 4 game sweep. Osgood had won his Cup, but still lacked the respect normally reserved for a Stanley Cup champion.

Osgood continued his solid play in 1999 with an 11th place efficiency ranking, but the gap between his statistics and his stablemates began to diminish. The mark of a great goaltender is the impact that occurs without him in the lineup. Although a 19 game sample is not enough to compare because of strength of opposition and workload, as Osgood entered his prime, the gap was strangely closing.

The 2000 season saw another top 10 finish for Osgood. But he was no longer getting the seperation from his peers. During the prime of his career Osgood was putting up marginally better numbers than Ken Wregget and back to back playoff failures at the hands of the Avalanche were not good for Osgood's resume. 

Entering the 2001 season Osgood was a victim of skeptical fans, although his early career had shown great promise, public perception was that he was propped up by a great team. This perception was not helped when Manny Legace, a 28 year old journeyman with a 6-9-2 career record dominated him statistically and took the number one job. Osgood plummeted to 26th in the league in efficiency and the Wings cut ties with their Stanley Cup winning goaltender.

Osgood was rewarded with an opportunity to prove that he was a money goalie when he was picked up by the Islanders off waivers. Osgood had a solid season leading the Islanders back to the playoffs, but a 17th place efficiency ranking did not alter the perception that he was not elite and reliant upon a system.

 

Osgood continued to win during his second season on the Island, but statistically trailed Snow and rookie Rick Dipietro. On a mediocre team, Osgood's performance was less than mediocre as he dropped to 34th among goaltender's in the NHL. With the Isles promoting Dipietro as the goaltender of the future, Osgood was off to the Blues.

Osgood registered another solid season outside of Motown, but a 15th place ranking left him in the middle of the pack of goaltenders. He was solid in his 3 years away from Detroit, but his lack of dominance did nothing to alter the perception that he was highly dependant upon the Wings.

As Osgood returned to Detroit, he still found himself behind Manny Legace, Legace finished 2nd in overall ranking with Osgood a distant 22nd. Osgood's mid career inconsistency is the greatest stain on his record.

With the return of Hasek, Osgood continued to play backup. The Wings were beneficiaries of a strong tandem as their results did not suffer with the choice of goaltender. The name value of Hasek can increase the value of Osgood's performance, or the age of Hasek could detract from it. That is up to the reader to decide.

The Hasek/Osgood tandem put up another monster statistical season in 2008. Osgood vaulted back into the top 10 and lead the Wings to a second Stanley Cup. With Legace's early 2000s success, fantasy circles began to target the Red Wings goaltender and not the individual. Osgood had registered two fantastic seasons in a row, won another Stanley Cup, yet the detractors still would not dissipate.

Just as the critics were beginning to let up, Osgood once again suffered another career setback as he registered the worst season of his career. The wins remained, and the Wings remained among the elite, but his numbers were tame in comparison to another career journeyman in Ty Conklin.

If you look at his career regular season numbers in regards to his peers, the goaltenders who played in the exact same conditions, behind the same defense and the same offenses, the numbers are not flattering for Osgood.

Looking at these numbers, it is simple to see why he is not universally respected. Over his 15 year career his teams have won at almost an identical rate without him and his GAA, SV% and shutouts are essentially a mirror image of his peers. Does Detroit need Osgood to win Stanley Cups? Or do they just need competent goaltending? Hasek and Vernon were both past their prime when they joined the Wings, Legace is a journeyman and Snow a career backup. Is it a positive that he posted the identical stats, or is it a negative?

Even the media's attempt to hail him as a clutch performer during the 2009 playoffs can be easily met with deaf ears. Over the first 3 rounds of the playoffs the Wings have outshot their opponents 628 to 451. Talk of "making the big save at the right time" and "rising to the challenge of the playoffs" fail to mention that there was ZERO pressure in round one against the Blue Jackets, very little pressure against the Hawks in a 5 games series (and even though he went to OT three times he faced a combined 4 shots in 11 OT minutes) and during the Ducks series the Wings were 4 minutes away from Game 7 OT even though they outshot the Ducks 300 - 166. The Wings almost doubled the Ducks shot output over 7 games and were one shot away for 10 minutes from losing to the 8th seed.

During the 2008 Stanley Cup run, in Osgood's starts the Wings outshot their opponents 658 - 390. During the Finals alone the Wings outshot the Pens 222 - 142. 80 SHOTS over 6 games, yet the series was a one inch trickler away from going into game 6 OT. During the 1998 four game sweep the Wings outshot the Caps 163-99. During his playoff career the Wings have outshot their opponents by a total of 2102 to 1524 shots.

As essentially a heavy favourite every season, at what point has Osgood needed to step up during these playoff runs? 

• In 1994 he faced one elimination game and lost. 

• In 1996 he faced 4, he won 3 and lost 1. 

• In 1998 the Wings never faced elimination. The biggest pressure he faced was trailing the Blues 2 games to 1 facing a 3-1 defecit if they lost in OT. They lead all their other series 3-1 or 3-0. 

• In 1999 he faced one elimination game and lost.

• In 2000 he faced one elimination game and lost.

• In 2001 he faced one elimination game and lost.

• In 2002 he faced 2, he won 1 and lost 1.

• In 2003 he faced one elimination game and lost.

• In 2004 he faced one elimination game and lost

• In 2008 the biggest pressure game he faced was 2-2 against the Predators in the first round. The Wings lead the Avs and Stars 3-0 and lead the Pens 3-1. 

So over his 121 game playoff career he has faced elimination 12 times and he won 4 of those games. During his career he has been the underdog in a series 3 times out of 22, he has NEVER won as an underdog. 87% of the time he has had home ice advantage. Where is this BIG GAME goalie reputation coming from? 

Sure other Detroit goaltenders have failed in the playoffs, Curtis Joseph was unsuccesful in bringing a Cup to Detroit but the Wings scored 24 goals in 12 games as Joseph posted a 1.64 GAA and a .930 SV%. Would Osgood have won under that scenario? Do other goalie's failures excuse Osgood's?

Ken Holland's philosophy on goaltending is that there are 6-7 elite level goaltender's in the league and the rest are interchangeable. Chris Osgood is one of those interchangeable parts. Personally, I think he is underrated. I think he gets undue criticism (myself included), and that he is a solid NHL goaltender. I also believe that if you rate Mike Vernon as an elite level goaltender, then you have to place Osgood in that category as well. I believe Vernon was in the second tier of goaltenders among his peers. 

He IS underrated because the majority assume he is a total sieve.

Could he make the Hall of Fame? Sure he could, if Bernie Federko and Clark Gillies are Hall of Famers, then nobody should be surprised if Osgood finds his way there, it is not my place to judge the eligibility requirements.

Is he a BIG GAME goalie? I don't see anywhere in his playoff record that indicates he is.

Should he make the Olympic team? Nonsense, if Team Canada is going to outshoot their opponents by 15 shots per game, then he is your man. If Yzerman wants his goaltender to make a difference, then Osgood should be watching the games on TV like myself in 2010.

In my opinion he owes the majority of his success to circumstance, not ability. When I look back 30 years from now at his era, he will NOT be among the elite level goaltender's I remember.