It is interesting that a team called the Predators struggles on the attack. Maybe they should rename themselves the Nashville Protectors? The Predators haven't had many impact forwards in their history; only once in Preds history has a forward cracked 80 pts (Paul Kariya, 2006). Nashville is built around the D, to the benefit of emerging fantasy star Pekka Rinne, but with Sullivan's return, the debut of Colin Wilson and a possible return of Alexander Radulov in 2011, that may change in the near future.
Barry Trotz is not a defensive mastermind in the mode of Pat Burns. Trotz's teams do not have a sterling defensive record over his 10 seasons, but his statistics were affected because the Predators started from scratch in 1999. If you remove the first 4 years from his resume, it alters his numbers. Over the last 6 seasons he has finished in the top 10 in defense three times, and has consistently produced fantasy surprises in goal. Mike Dunham led to Tomas Vokoun. When Chris Mason outplayed Vokoun the Predators dealt him to Florida. When Mason faltered, Dan Ellis moved in to the starters role. And last season Pekka Rinne dislodged Ellis. Is it realistic to believe that the Predators have just been fortunate? A 30-year old journeyman has a career year, followed by a 27-year old rookie having a career year and now a 25-year old Pekka Rinne repeating the same thing?
Sure it could be a coincidence, and Mason's numbers were produced on a far superior team, but Ellis had a similar situation and was being touted last season as a strong fantasy pick. One year later and Ellis has been written off and Rinne is the man in Nashville. Call me skeptical, but as George Bush once said "There's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again." I think I will wait until Rinne dominates in back to back seasons before I place him in the elite category.
What is the ceiling for Shea Weber? After exploding out of the gate with 25 points in 26 games (11G, 14A), Weber plateaued through the new year producing only 8 points between Dec 8th and Feb 19th (3g, 5A, -9). Then Weber came to life once again as he finished up with 20 pts in his final 23 games (9G, 14A). He continues to show glimpses of his future Norris potential (2nd in the NHL in goals by a defenseman (23), 103.4 MPH slapshot and Top defenseman honours at the World Championships), with his size, willingness to engage physically and rapidly evolving offensive package, it isn't a question of if he wins a Norris, it is a question of when. 
Even though I am not drinking the Pekka Rinne kool-aid just yet, I see the value in owning him. Even if he isn't elite, he will be insulated on a defense first Predators team, and that will lead to good numbers. Most fantasy owners have a short memory, and while they demolish Carey Price for his final 30 games, they deify Rinne for his last 30. Over those last 30 games Rinne was 18-8-4 with a 2.39 GAA and a .919 SV%, compare that to Carey Price's 2008 where he went 18-8-2 with a 2.46 GAA and a .923 SV%. So I am to believe that Rinne is bulletproof? Six months from now the fantasy world could be calling Chet Pickard the next great goaltender. Rinne has the tools to succeed, he is huge and is an efficient, calm butterfly goaltender with strong reflexes, all I am stressing is buyer beware, the fantasy world is littered with one-year wonders and Ellis' carcass is proof as it rots behind Rinne on the bench in Nashville.
Jason Arnott is one of the most under appreciated performers in the fantasy world. Three of the last four seasons Arnott has hugged the PPG line and even though his PIMs have decreased throughout his career, he is a great value pick at center. Why blow a third to fourth rounder on Ribeiro or Zetterberg when you can take a goaltender or defenseman and get 90% of that production from Arnott five rounds later? With the return of Steve Sullivan on his wing, Arnott was dominant down the stretch with 33 pts in his final 29 games (18G, 15A) and 12 goals in his final 11 games. Arnott's game has evolved with age as he uses his experience to exploit his size instead of relying on talent and explosiveness. If Sullivan can remain healthy Arnott may once again represent fantastic fantasy value.
JP Dumont lead the Predators in scoring during the 2009 season and like Jason Arnott enjoyed the return of Steve Sullivan. Over the last 23 games Dumont produced 24 points (5G, 19A) saving him from a disastrous season that was almost derailed by a brutal stretch through the new year. After a strong start, Dumont hit the wall producing only 12 pts in 31 games, his lack of defensive commitment and his indifference to engage physically are emphasized when he is not producing and ultimately cost him a 20 goal season, only the second time he failed to reach that mark during his career (70+ GP). Dumont has settled into the 60-70 pt zone and with a healthy Sullivan should be able to maintain that status.
As a Canadian, the name Suter is met with disdain in my household.
Add the cross check to Gretzky in the 1991 Canada Cup to Kariya's non participation in Nagano and Ryan Suter had a lot of work to do to win me over. After a slow and steady development, Suter finally enjoyed his breakout season in 2009. Suter is a workhorse and does not back down from the physicality of the game, his mobility and his transition game are constantly evolving and when coupled with his heavy shot and a blossoming partnership with Shea Weber, he should remain a solid fantasy contributor. After four consecutive years of improving point totals I will not hold his last name against him, just like I would hope I wouldn't be judged by the actions of my drunken relatives.
Steve Sullivan returned in 2009 from a two year injury forced hiatus to jump start the sagging Preds offense. Sullivan initially struggled to re-adjust to NHL life, but when he became comfortable he exploded for 24 points over the final 22 games to close out a successful return. Not only did Jason Arnott and JP Dumont benefit from his return, but the Predators were 22-14-5 with him in the lineup. His offensive repertoire is not in question, if healthy he is a PPG player. With his track record it is not wise to invest in anybody with him in mind, but if you can pick him up in the longshot rounds late in a draft, it is a solid gamble.
Martin Erat's fantasy career has settled into a mediocre pattern. He is a consistent 50-60 pt forward that will remain a late round depth pick or waiver wire grab. Erat thrives in the open ice and is a high intensity forward who uses his speed to exploit defensive weaknesses. He has failed to break through to the next level because he is reluctant to engage in the physical aspect of the game, thus causing poor decisions and a tendency to gravitate to the outside away from the puck. If he ever runs shotgun to an elite center, with his offensive skill set his production may spike, but this is one of the cases in which a conservative projection is appropriate.
Colin Wilson is a big, strong talented center that will provide the Predators with the offensive star they have lacked since the departure of Alexander Radulov. Wilson has shown flashes of his future at Boston U and during a spectacular World Junior Championships where he posted 9 points in 6 games (3G, 6A). Wilson is a beast down low and can control shifts with his physical strength, with improved skating and great hands, he has the ability to create and finish his own opportunities as well as read and recognize when to drift to the scoring zones. A future fantasy star.
The Scarlet Johansson of minor league systems, the Predators system is young and stacked (Does this make the Leafs the Gwen Stefani of minor league systems?). With a potential franchise goaltender, three power-play quarterbacks and an elite power forward in Wilson who is expected to crack the roster in 2010, it is time for fantasy owners to raid the Nashville farm in Ryan Reynolds fashion.
You know your team has strong prospect depth when you win back-to-back WHL goaltender of the year awards and are not even the team's best prospect. If Rinne can maintain his rookie form, Pickard will be able to adjust to the pro game at his own pace. His style is very similar to Carey Price (who he backed up in Tri-City), a hybrid goaltender with a calm demeanor, strong economy of movement who uses his large frame for maximum net coverage. Like all goaltenders, his biggest challenge will be adjusting to the pace at the pro-level and if he can improve his fitness level and with it his quickness, then he has the ability to be an All-Star and produce huge fantasy numbers on a defensive minded team.
Ryan Ellis enjoyed a monster season during his draft eligible year vaulting him to the elite fantasy prospect level. Ellis' elite quarterbacking abilities were on full display during the World Juniors as his creativity, mobility, puck moving and booming shot came within a couple of psi's from making Pierre McGuire's head explode. Ellis continued his "monster" season by leading the Windsor Spitfires to the Memorial Cup title and with 67 assists registered in the top 10 of OHL scoring, something that has not been accomplished in more than a decade. His size and defensive concerns caused him to fall on draft day, but this is not 1998, the Predators stole him with the 11th pick. Draft him in your keeper league and enjoy it three years from now when he is feeding Shea Weber for one-timers on the Predators power-play.
Jonathan Blum is an explosive skater with outstanding mobility, he does not hesitate to carry the puck up ice. Defensively he will improve with physical maturity, but what he lacks in size he makes up with technique. The California native won the WHL and CHL defenseman of the year honours in 2009, and with his ascension has leapfrogged Franson on the depth chart.
With the acquisition of Ryan Ellis and Jonathan Blum, Cody Franson has replaced Billy Ray Cyrus as the most forgotten man in Nashville. The depth of defensive talent is so great on the Predators that a 6'4", 205 lb, skilled puck mover who produced 28 pts over his final 35 games in the AHL (ranked 3rd in AHL scoring) has become a fantasy afterthought. Franson is intelligent and relies on his positioning to defend; if he ever figures out how to use his frame to his advantage defensively he could have a strong fantasy career.
Patrick Hornqvist has a tremendous offensive upside, but remains a project in progress. He lacks foot speed, but a strong hockey sense and a willingness to pay the price going to the net makes him a dangerous offensive player. Hornqvist has the ability to create space for himself and when he gains strength has a strong opportunity to stick with the Preds due to a lack of elite forward prospects. Don't waste a roster spot, but keep your eye on him as he progresses.
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