Nobody was more devastated with the Senators decline than me. How am I supposed to live without playoff games where a half dressed man dons a Spartan helmet that doesn't fit, and does an Ultimate Warrior impersonation? If they make the playoffs this year, can the Sens dress up Daniel Alfreddson in a Hot Rod t-shirt and have him hit an Ovechkin impersonator with a coconut and smush a banana in his face? The Senators have plenty of question marks entering 2010 and in order for me to see more of this glorious unintentional comedy, these questions will all need to be answered postively. If they do, you can look at this preview and laugh maniacally like Jason Spezza.
For a breakdown on how to read the profles, click here. For a larger version of the previews, click on the individual profile.
With only a small sampling of NHL experience to assess, I looked at Clouston's previous experience. There doesn't seem to exist any pattern of defensive or offensive genius. During his WHL stint, he led the Kootenay Ice to a best defensive record, but also offset that when his team led the league in goals. His teams for the most part were defensively responsible, but he struggled to maintain that defensive success when he went to the AHL. During his brief NHL audition he managed to improve the GAA marginally, but increased the goal scoring by over 3/4 of a goal per game. Auld's numbers improved, Elliott's regressed. Will Clouston dramatically affect his fantasy players? Seems unlikely, which means that Leclaire and Elliott will not likely be sheltered from their inadequacies.
Jason Spezza endured the worst season of his pro career staggering to a 73 pt campaign. After three consecutive seasons where he approached 100 pts, Spezza suffered from inconsistency and a lack of focus and defensive commitment. It is concerning that Spezza still has not grasped the importance of defensive commitment at the age of 26. Fortunately, that is unlikely to affect his fantasy potential. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts to life without Heatley, I expect a return to the 80-90 pt range and pray I never have to hear him laugh again.
Was last season an aberration, or the beginning of the decline for the 36 year old? Daniel Alfreddson has been one of the most consistent fantasy players of the last decade, only registering less than 70 pts once since 99-00 (during that season he produced 59 pts in 57 games). Alfreddson still possesses a dangerous offensive arsenal, but age and a nagging back injury that affected his production last year are definite red flags. With such a complete game and a coach who is responsible defensively, could he find himself deployed in a transition role? Alfreddson may have one great season left in him, but I don't like those question marks and would not waste an early pick on him. Mid-late rounds before I would even ponder making the reach.
The only consistency in Alex Kovalev's career is his inconsistency. Kovalev is so talented that in a contract year he decided to take 2 months off and add some zeroes to his contract over his last 10 games. Over those 10 games he had 17 points, a total it took him 2 and a half months to produce between Jan 10 and March 21st. 65 pts in 78 games is not as disgraceful as 48 pts in 68 games. The good thing for fantasy owners, he is in an up year and will likely be motivated because of the Canadiens decision to move on. He is a Dirk Diggler for me, something I talked about in February here. Take a pass, the risk is just not worth the reward.
Michalek enters the 2010 campaign with plenty of pressure as he fills the big skates left behind by Dany Heatley. How will he produce outside of San Jose where he had developed strong chemistry with linemates Ryan Clowe and Joe Pavelski? If handed top minutes with Spezza and Alfreddson, will he finally breakout and bypass the 30-goal mark? Could he find himself in a position to compliment a determined Alex Kovalev? Michalek has been somewhat enigmatic, as he fails to capitalize on his unique blend of size and speed to wade into traffic. Playing on the perimeter with players like Spezza and Kovalev will lead to a further plateau in his production. Enigma, perimeter, predictable are not the words you seek when scouting fantasy players. To many red flags to make a significant investment for me.
With 19 pts in his first 25 games (1 assist in each of his first 8 games), Filip Kuba rode that monster start to a career year in 2009. He struggled to produce after December finishing with only 21 points over his final 45 games. Kuba is ideally used as a second pairing defenseman, as he lacks the skillset of an elite defensive quarterback, but with Karlsson and Lee still years away and Campoli still struggling with consistency Kuba is a lock for big minutes again. You may be able to squeeze another productive season out of him, but I wouldn't count on it. A Late round gamble at best.
Pascal Leclaire, saviour? Unlikely. Will he make Sens fans forget Patrick Lalime? No. Leclaire is inconsistent, injury prone and over 11 seasons has rarely out performed his backups, those are not the characteristics of a franchise goaltender (for more, click here). At 27 years old, Leclaire is no longer a young goaltender and what you see is likely all you will ever get. He screams system goaltender, and even if Cory Clouston can shore up the defensive end and deflate the Ottawa goaltenders numbers, don't expect Leclaire to significantly outdistance Brian Elliott in 2010.
Brian Elliott got plenty of fantasy love upon his arrival last season and at 16-8-3, it is understandable. I can't shake the fact that he didn't really outplay Alex Bald. Outside of his win total, Ellott trailed Lex Luthor significantly in GAA and SV%. Am I underrating Bald? It is possible. Is he that inferior to the saviour Leclaire? Outside of one great season with the Jackets, how has Leclaire outperformed the former Sens backup?
The Sens have never recovered from the departure of Zdeno Chara and the rapid decomposition of the corpse formerly known as Wade Redden. There are recruits on the way Sens Army. With Karlsson, Lee and Wiercioch on the horizon, the Sens can ascend to the playoffs and another shot at losing to the Maple Leafs.
Karlsson rose to prominence during the World Juniors when he lead all defensemen in scoring and was named the top defender in the tournament, outshining Mikael Backlund, Victor Hedman and Oscar Moller. If his name were spelled Carlsson, McGuire would have labeled him a "Monster". With the Sens lacking a premier point man, Karlsson's mix of skill, vision and testicular fortitude should make him a fantasy star. With only Campoli and Kuba in his way, the path is laid out for a quick ascension. At only 5'11" and 170 lbs, Karlsson's biggest challenge will likely lie in the weight room.
Ilya Zubov is a speedster with a smooth stride, who excels in traffic and possesses a potent release. Zubov distributes the puck well and has the potential to be a number one center. He is not a defensive liability, and his versatility allows him to play all three forward positions. After a solid North American debut in 2008, he flashed his future potential with Binghamton in 2009 (52 pts in 63 games), earning a cup of coffee with the Sens. Still a couple of years away, but a player who has solid fantasy potential.
Lee possesses good size and superb skating skills. An offensive defenseman with solid defensive awareness, Lee lacks the elite quarterback skills of Karlsson, but shows signs of providing a strong compliment to him in the future. His reliability, calm demeanor, and poise with the puck allow for smart decisions in transition. Lee lacks a mean streak and fails to engage physically, but is capable of overcoming those flaws with smart positioning and solid gap control. A strong fantasy option with limited upside.
Wiercioch has a nice blend of size and skill and made great strides in his freshman campaign. Wiercioch led NCAA rookie blueliners with 12 goals and was named to the WCHA All-Rookie team, as well as a second team all-star birth. A smart, mobile puck moving defenseman who benefits from a well-rounded defensive awareness, Wiercioch needs to add some size and strength to his 6'5" 195 lb frame to become effective at the NHL level. The Sens have problems on the blueline now, but have made strides to rectify that problem in the near future.
Regin enjoyed a solid debut with the Binghamton Senators finishing 5-points off the scoring lead (despite missing 12 games due to shoulder/concussion issues) and was named "the best defensive forward on the Sens". Regin sees the ice well and his calm demeanor bodes well for a future as a playmaker. He has a "pass first" mentality, but it does not hinder his ability to score goals. With his strong work ethic and skill level he is only added strength away from the NHL.
For a breakdown on how to read the profles, click here. For a larger version of the previews, click on the individual profile.
With only a small sampling of NHL experience to assess, I looked at Clouston's previous experience. There doesn't seem to exist any pattern of defensive or offensive genius. During his WHL stint, he led the Kootenay Ice to a best defensive record, but also offset that when his team led the league in goals. His teams for the most part were defensively responsible, but he struggled to maintain that defensive success when he went to the AHL. During his brief NHL audition he managed to improve the GAA marginally, but increased the goal scoring by over 3/4 of a goal per game. Auld's numbers improved, Elliott's regressed. Will Clouston dramatically affect his fantasy players? Seems unlikely, which means that Leclaire and Elliott will not likely be sheltered from their inadequacies. 
Jason Spezza endured the worst season of his pro career staggering to a 73 pt campaign. After three consecutive seasons where he approached 100 pts, Spezza suffered from inconsistency and a lack of focus and defensive commitment. It is concerning that Spezza still has not grasped the importance of defensive commitment at the age of 26. Fortunately, that is unlikely to affect his fantasy potential. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts to life without Heatley, I expect a return to the 80-90 pt range and pray I never have to hear him laugh again.
Was last season an aberration, or the beginning of the decline for the 36 year old? Daniel Alfreddson has been one of the most consistent fantasy players of the last decade, only registering less than 70 pts once since 99-00 (during that season he produced 59 pts in 57 games). Alfreddson still possesses a dangerous offensive arsenal, but age and a nagging back injury that affected his production last year are definite red flags. With such a complete game and a coach who is responsible defensively, could he find himself deployed in a transition role? Alfreddson may have one great season left in him, but I don't like those question marks and would not waste an early pick on him. Mid-late rounds before I would even ponder making the reach.
The only consistency in Alex Kovalev's career is his inconsistency. Kovalev is so talented that in a contract year he decided to take 2 months off and add some zeroes to his contract over his last 10 games. Over those 10 games he had 17 points, a total it took him 2 and a half months to produce between Jan 10 and March 21st. 65 pts in 78 games is not as disgraceful as 48 pts in 68 games. The good thing for fantasy owners, he is in an up year and will likely be motivated because of the Canadiens decision to move on. He is a Dirk Diggler for me, something I talked about in February here. Take a pass, the risk is just not worth the reward.
Michalek enters the 2010 campaign with plenty of pressure as he fills the big skates left behind by Dany Heatley. How will he produce outside of San Jose where he had developed strong chemistry with linemates Ryan Clowe and Joe Pavelski? If handed top minutes with Spezza and Alfreddson, will he finally breakout and bypass the 30-goal mark? Could he find himself in a position to compliment a determined Alex Kovalev? Michalek has been somewhat enigmatic, as he fails to capitalize on his unique blend of size and speed to wade into traffic. Playing on the perimeter with players like Spezza and Kovalev will lead to a further plateau in his production. Enigma, perimeter, predictable are not the words you seek when scouting fantasy players. To many red flags to make a significant investment for me.
With 19 pts in his first 25 games (1 assist in each of his first 8 games), Filip Kuba rode that monster start to a career year in 2009. He struggled to produce after December finishing with only 21 points over his final 45 games. Kuba is ideally used as a second pairing defenseman, as he lacks the skillset of an elite defensive quarterback, but with Karlsson and Lee still years away and Campoli still struggling with consistency Kuba is a lock for big minutes again. You may be able to squeeze another productive season out of him, but I wouldn't count on it. A Late round gamble at best.
Pascal Leclaire, saviour? Unlikely. Will he make Sens fans forget Patrick Lalime? No. Leclaire is inconsistent, injury prone and over 11 seasons has rarely out performed his backups, those are not the characteristics of a franchise goaltender (for more, click here). At 27 years old, Leclaire is no longer a young goaltender and what you see is likely all you will ever get. He screams system goaltender, and even if Cory Clouston can shore up the defensive end and deflate the Ottawa goaltenders numbers, don't expect Leclaire to significantly outdistance Brian Elliott in 2010.
Brian Elliott got plenty of fantasy love upon his arrival last season and at 16-8-3, it is understandable. I can't shake the fact that he didn't really outplay Alex Bald. Outside of his win total, Ellott trailed Lex Luthor significantly in GAA and SV%. Am I underrating Bald? It is possible. Is he that inferior to the saviour Leclaire? Outside of one great season with the Jackets, how has Leclaire outperformed the former Sens backup?Perception is driving the "Leclaire is a star" bandwagon. The same type of hyperbole that fueled the Chris Osgood is a Hall of Famer nonsense last spring. Elliott is a solid goaltender and if given A. Leclaire's injury history and B. an opportunity, he may be in line for a lot more starts than people think. I still don't believe that the Sens have solved their goaltender issues.
The Sens will look to give Campoli a shot to run the offense after investing a first round selection in him. Campoli does possess the offensive tools to replace Kuba, but with his defensive inconsistencies and his questionable instincts to attack recklessly at even strength, Campoli remains a defensive liability, he is still a work in progress. With his skating ability, slapshot and ability to quarterback the powerplay, he has the ability to top 40 pts in 2010.
Replaced by Cheechoo 2.0 (Devin Setoguchi, a younger more efficient model) in San Jose, Jonathan Cheechoo will be given every opportunity for a fresh start in Ottawa. Although injuries have plagued him, Cheechoo's fall from grace is unprecedented. After winning the Rocket Richard trophy in 2006, the Cheechoo train has derailed. If placed with Jason Spezza and brought back to life on the 1st line could he produce again? Sure, anything is possible in a world where unoriginal crap like the Black Eyed Peas can set a record for the longest successive No. 1 chart run. Let's just say "I Gotta Feeling" it's not going to happen.
Nick Foligno finally began to show his promise when handed increased responsibility by mid-season replacement Cory Clouston. With 19 pts in his final 34 games, Foligno at 21 is entering a contract year and has showed signs of a breakout moving forward. With a tenacious work ethic, two-way sensibilities, the desire to go to the dirty areas on the ice and strong finishing ability, the only thing holding him back is his bland helmet and straight nose. Hand him a 1981 Winn Well helmet, break his nose and 40 goals will be in his not to distant future. Follow him closely on the waiver wire.
The Sens will look to give Campoli a shot to run the offense after investing a first round selection in him. Campoli does possess the offensive tools to replace Kuba, but with his defensive inconsistencies and his questionable instincts to attack recklessly at even strength, Campoli remains a defensive liability, he is still a work in progress. With his skating ability, slapshot and ability to quarterback the powerplay, he has the ability to top 40 pts in 2010.
Replaced by Cheechoo 2.0 (Devin Setoguchi, a younger more efficient model) in San Jose, Jonathan Cheechoo will be given every opportunity for a fresh start in Ottawa. Although injuries have plagued him, Cheechoo's fall from grace is unprecedented. After winning the Rocket Richard trophy in 2006, the Cheechoo train has derailed. If placed with Jason Spezza and brought back to life on the 1st line could he produce again? Sure, anything is possible in a world where unoriginal crap like the Black Eyed Peas can set a record for the longest successive No. 1 chart run. Let's just say "I Gotta Feeling" it's not going to happen.
Nick Foligno finally began to show his promise when handed increased responsibility by mid-season replacement Cory Clouston. With 19 pts in his final 34 games, Foligno at 21 is entering a contract year and has showed signs of a breakout moving forward. With a tenacious work ethic, two-way sensibilities, the desire to go to the dirty areas on the ice and strong finishing ability, the only thing holding him back is his bland helmet and straight nose. Hand him a 1981 Winn Well helmet, break his nose and 40 goals will be in his not to distant future. Follow him closely on the waiver wire.
The Sens have never recovered from the departure of Zdeno Chara and the rapid decomposition of the corpse formerly known as Wade Redden. There are recruits on the way Sens Army. With Karlsson, Lee and Wiercioch on the horizon, the Sens can ascend to the playoffs and another shot at losing to the Maple Leafs.
Karlsson rose to prominence during the World Juniors when he lead all defensemen in scoring and was named the top defender in the tournament, outshining Mikael Backlund, Victor Hedman and Oscar Moller. If his name were spelled Carlsson, McGuire would have labeled him a "Monster". With the Sens lacking a premier point man, Karlsson's mix of skill, vision and testicular fortitude should make him a fantasy star. With only Campoli and Kuba in his way, the path is laid out for a quick ascension. At only 5'11" and 170 lbs, Karlsson's biggest challenge will likely lie in the weight room.
Ilya Zubov is a speedster with a smooth stride, who excels in traffic and possesses a potent release. Zubov distributes the puck well and has the potential to be a number one center. He is not a defensive liability, and his versatility allows him to play all three forward positions. After a solid North American debut in 2008, he flashed his future potential with Binghamton in 2009 (52 pts in 63 games), earning a cup of coffee with the Sens. Still a couple of years away, but a player who has solid fantasy potential.
Lee possesses good size and superb skating skills. An offensive defenseman with solid defensive awareness, Lee lacks the elite quarterback skills of Karlsson, but shows signs of providing a strong compliment to him in the future. His reliability, calm demeanor, and poise with the puck allow for smart decisions in transition. Lee lacks a mean streak and fails to engage physically, but is capable of overcoming those flaws with smart positioning and solid gap control. A strong fantasy option with limited upside.
Wiercioch has a nice blend of size and skill and made great strides in his freshman campaign. Wiercioch led NCAA rookie blueliners with 12 goals and was named to the WCHA All-Rookie team, as well as a second team all-star birth. A smart, mobile puck moving defenseman who benefits from a well-rounded defensive awareness, Wiercioch needs to add some size and strength to his 6'5" 195 lb frame to become effective at the NHL level. The Sens have problems on the blueline now, but have made strides to rectify that problem in the near future.
Regin enjoyed a solid debut with the Binghamton Senators finishing 5-points off the scoring lead (despite missing 12 games due to shoulder/concussion issues) and was named "the best defensive forward on the Sens". Regin sees the ice well and his calm demeanor bodes well for a future as a playmaker. He has a "pass first" mentality, but it does not hinder his ability to score goals. With his strong work ethic and skill level he is only added strength away from the NHL. 
4 comments:
Do you realize that with your goaltending projections, you've anticipated the Sens playing 83 games this year?
All in all, a humbling but realistic post. Hopefully pessimistic. I presume that with 98 points projected, you anticipate them making the post-season?
Job well done!
Nice catch. I knew that was going to happen somewhere along the line.
Those are averaged projections, so what you are getting is a sampling of where the fantasy hockey community projects the Sens.
http://www.fantasysensehockey.net/2009/08/fantasy-sense-team-previews.html
It is part of a grand experiment of mine. I don't really buy into projections personally.
The Sens are a hard team to get a handle on, with a player like Kovalev the Sens could be getting a 85 pt All-Star, or a guy who dogs it for 35 games. Clouston is a relative unknown, can he alter Spezza's outlook, will he be able to strengthen their defensive outlook? Is Alfreddson on the decline, or was last season an anomaly? Is Michalek going to remain an enigma? Will Karlsson step up and make the jump even though he has not physically matured?
Usually with that many question marks things don't fall into place. But it does happen.
My guess would be no playoffs in 2010.
And thanks :)
Maaajor props for the Black Eyed Peas comment :) I love tying in a hatred for their squealing into Hockey.
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