Lie Like an Eagle - Week ONE

Clicking on Frozen Fantasy every week leaves me unsatisfied. I don't know if it is because of the realization that it is a play on words referencing Hockey and Fantasy sports or because a frozen fantasy for me involves ice cubes and Wonder Woman, not 10-12 uninspired weekly waiver wire recommendations from Janet Eagleson.

I am tired of the Sacred Cows of the Fantasy world. Site after site of copycats giving the same information through several gimmicks with a different spin. It is always followed by site after site of bragging about the players they told you to pick up and how that broke out, yet totally ignoring the players that did absolutely nothing.

Last season I lost my shit when going over one of Eagleson's columns mid-season.

The Orcas have finally admitted Roberto Luongo really is seriously hurt AND their back-ups just weren’t cutting the mustard. Late on Tuesday night, they snagged Labarbera from the Kings for a measly seventh round pick. Grand theft larceny is all I can say. Labarbera is big and aggressive, and will quickly assert himself as the Canucks’ top dog, at least until Luongo comes back. He’s a lot better than his current stat line suggests – just do a quick search and you’ll discover he was the AHL MVP in 2004. I just happened to be up late on the 30th and I scooped him off the wire. Sure, I had to drop a 20-point defenseman to get him. But they’re a lot easier to come by than a starting goalie on a playoff-bound team. Go get him. His 31-save, first-star performance Thursday night is just a small sample of what he can do.

This recommendation was the epitome of lazy research. No cross referencing of his work in regards to Ersberg and Jonathan Quick. It was a leap of faith to indicate he is better than his stats because he had won an MVP in an inferior league 4 years prior. Essentially a shot in the dark. 

In retrospect was this "Grand theft larceny" like she had described?

My response at the time was this.

"Really? Why is he better than his current stat line? Under the same conditions Erik Ersberg and Jonathan Quick have destroyed LaBarbera's performance, the Kings are ranked 7th best in goals against average. What variables have determined that his numbers are not his fault, it would seem to point the other way, he is terrible on a team that has been solid defensively? Last season Ersberg outperformed him as well. I should pick him up because he was good in the AHL? In 2006 the peers that ranked closely to him were Curtis McElhinny, Drew MacIntyre, Al Montoya and Frederic Cassivi. This is supposed to make me waste a waiver wire move? This lazy uninspired analysis? Quick search is exactly what was used in this research. This is your full time job! I have a wife and kids and a full time job and I have time to look this stuff up for a blog that has 6 loyal viewers? What is your excuse? This method makes up the majority of fantasy hockey analysis. It is dart board analysis and if LaBarbera lights up the league for a month Yahoo will pat themselves on the back for tipping you off, if he performs to expectation they will slough it off as unimportant."

So how often were her recommendations this lazy? How accurate is Janet Eagleson? What is the success rate of this "award winning" expert?

Well, lucky you asked, because I am going to track ALL of her recommendations and show the successes and the failures. Let's see what her success rate is. In essence I am calling her out. 

Let's topple the sacred cows one by one.

1. Listing off 10-15 players and taking credit for the success of 1-2 while ignoring the failure of 8-13. 

Here are her week one selections. (my comments in red.)

Francois Beauchemin D, Toronto (12% owned)
Eagleson Upside? Bryan McCabe like shot who will benefit from Tomas Kaberle. Projects to 40-45 pts, not good enough for more.

Dave Bolland C, Chicago (28% owned)

Eagleson Upside? Should be able to crack 60 pts playing with Kane and Toews, 60+ is likely.

Chris Bourque LW, Pittsburgh (0%)

Eagleson Upside? Scored 73 pts in the AHL, so good that he is bound to develop chemistry with one of Crosby, Malkin or Staal. 

I have no idea what she feels his upside is, more likely a "remember when I told you to pick him up", or "forget I did" if he doesn't pan out.  

Nikita Filatov LW, Columbus (24%)

Eagleson Upside? Crazy talent, has a job on the second line, deal him after a hot start because he is skinny and there is no way he can keep up his production. 

(Patrick Kane was 5'10" and 162 lbs when he entered the NHL and now only weighs in @ 170, does that mean he is too skinny?).

Alex Goligoski D, Pittsburgh (10%)

Eagleson Upside? Limited minutes, but an elite PP quarterback with limited minutes is better than an average PP quarterback with full-time minutes. 

(Translation: He is elite and should produce 40+ pts even if he is on the 2nd unit PP. 40 pts is what average defensemen like Kuba, John Michael-Liles or Ron Hainsey gave you last year.)

Brooks Laich C, Washington (48%)

Eagleson Upside? Pick him up to trade him, he will not maintain his pace. Opponents will be suckered into thinking he will be productive because of his teammates. 

Funny, didn't she just recommend Francois Beauchemin, David Bolland AND Chris Bourque because of their teammates?

Ville Leino, LW, Detroit (14%)

Eagleson Upside? Todd Bertuzzi sucks offensively now and will be bumped from the scoring lines. Leino is more talented and will produce once he is elevated to play with Detroit's stars.

So Filatov at 6'0", 175 is too skinny, but Leino who has never played more than 57 games in any pro season and is 6'0", 182 lbs is not skinny? And Leino's production is dependant on playing on the first two lines with talented teammates?

Kris Letang, D, Pittsburgh (35%)

Eagleson Upside? Gonchar is old, Letang on the "rails to stardom", "join him on the track".

Choo-Choo-Choooose Letang and take the express lane to your fantasy title? Are you kidding me? Nothing like hedging on both young Pens defensemen.

Antti Niemi, G, Chicago (1%)

Eagleson Upside? Huet has never played more than 53 games. Niemi will get a shot.

Agree 100%. Waiting for the lightning bolt...waiting...waiting

Matt Stajan, C, Toronto (11%)

Eagleson Upside? Great game Thursday, stronger, I'm a Leaf fan.

I will believe it when I see it. 

Anton Stralman D, Columbus (0%)

Eagleson Upside? No defensive depth in Columbus, great teammates.

There are the great teammates again.

Justin Williams RW, Los Angeles

Eagleson Upside? Injuries have hurt his production, but he was productive in 2006-07.

So Justin Williams was reliant on speed to create offense. He has had reconstructive knee surgery and a torn achillies tendon. Maybe these surgeries could affect his speed? But because he plays with elite level talent (once again, using the reason to promote his value, while using it to devalue Laich's value) we should make the leap that his speed will not be affected and his talented teammates will make him return to his form of 3 years ago. Yeah, I am all over that add!

Why does this article need 12 names? She is hedging her bets. She knows that if 2-3 names actually hit, she can reference them as success in the future. This is no different than the shyster's who offer up money back guarantee NFL locks if you call their 1-800 number. Then they give the home team to 50% of the callers and the away to the other 50%. The guarantee comes in for 50% of the callers and they cover their money back guarantee with this success.

All she is doing is recommending replacement players due to injury, AHL callups and spending 3 minutes clicking on your league's player list - production last week - production last month and selecting the player at the top of the list. It isn't rocket science. I will provide a spreadsheet of her ongoing predictions moving forward and by the end of the season we can affix a percentage to her name and see if it is really worth your time to read her column.