The Wire - March 23, 2009

This week on the Wire, where the fantasy hardware is won and lost.

If you joined any public leagues this season , there is bound to be a few teams in your league that have stopped paying attention as the season goes into its final stretch. Actually who are we kidding , if I was a betting man (which I am , damn blackhawks! ) I would say there is an extremely high number of leagues out there that are just used for drafting purposes. Practice for their real drafts. Leaving half the league to the mercy of this fantasy sin. This also is a major reason why we see such low numbers in ownership percentages across the fantasy world. Bobby Ryan , 57 % owned ? I mean , I have March Madness fever as much as the next guy but lets try and finish up the hockey seson in style. Lets not leave talented ,helpful and productive playmakers out on the wire to dry. One thing. Come on Michigan ! It's been a decade but were back.

With minimal games remaining , we all fall into one of three categories. Cruising to a title , fighting to stay alive or playing the role of rebuilder, especially in keeper leagues. If you are in contention and your league is neck and neck, chances are you don't need me to recommend that one guy to put you over the top. Although there is one player I have had my eye on throughout the season. I'm an avid trader but have not yet been able to strike a deal to acquire this youngster. Yet he is availble in 49% of leagues out there. We know how that story unfolds. I'm talking about Vancouver's goal scoring tough guy,

Alex Burrows - LW - Canucks ( 51% owned )

Whenever I'm compiling any draft list or personal rankings I tend to put players in certain categories. I describe them as clones. If I miss out on the top guy on my list , you don't miss a beat because you can get the next best thing at a realitively cheaper price. For instance a couple players who go for higher prices along side their more inexpensive clones,

Sidney Crosby - Marc Savard
We still haven't seen Crosby's peak yet Savard goes anually under the radar.

Martin Broduer - Niklas Backstrom
Can we all agree that they have both benefited from the system they play under just a little ?

Alex Ovechkin - Ilya Kovalchuk
O.V. gets al the well deserved pub but give Kovalchuk the same roster and they could be identical.

Dion Phaneuf - Shea Weber
Phaneuf went no.1 as far as defenceman in my draft this year. Weber went 4 rounds later.

Niklas Lidstrom - Brian Rafalski
Lidstrom a legend without question. Has Rafalski even been talked about at all this year ?

Brendan Morrow - Alex Burrows
Morrow is the poster boy for all around roto production but Burrows leads a new wave about to catch him.

Burrows has been a waiver wire gem this year and still could give you that one final push in your league. Since joining the line of the Sedin Twins , Burrows has elevated his game to next level status. He is becoming a fantasy force at this very moment. In his last 15 games , Burrows has put up numbers that have carried your fantasy squad. 10 goals , 6 assists , 39 PIMS with a plus 13 rating. Players like Burrows and one of my personal favourites David Backes are often overlooked but when your are able to get contributions however the size in every category consistently. They become invaluable to your roster. They are the Dustin Pedroia's of the NHL. Forgive me I have my fantasy baseball draft in a couple hours. To all the 49% of GM's out there , I urge you to go out and acquire this kid.

If you are out of contention and rebuiling or always scouting young talent I would say that this is the prime moment to pounce on a young up and coming prospect to help in your rebuilding process. His name is known in almost every fantasy circle yet it seems like his campaign to glory is losing steam. It is my mission to not let that happen. If your interested in some prime keeper league real estate and not some swampland in Florida , make some calls , draw up the paper work and sign this kid ,

Jonathan Bernier - G - Kings ( 9% owned )

As Chris tends to remind me every once and a while, I have stated in the past that Bernier is not only more talented than Carey Price but also has more upside. Needless to say we disagree. Of course , Price has proven to worth every penny and Bernier who should have got his shot by now is still waiting in the wings and has been inconsistent at times during his AHL seasoning. Yes Price is still worth his fantasy weight in gold , even if the papers and radio in montreal
have you believing otherwise. At the 2007 World Juniors , having already owned Bernier in my keeper I was pumped to see him get the nod between the pipes. Only to see the beginning of the Steve Mason show steal the spotlight right from under him. Ever since then , as with so many prospects in all sports , Bernier's perceived value has faded a bit. We all are victims of it. Once a prospect no longer becomes sexy , the fantasy world gives them the cold shoulder. I've been hearing rumblings that L.A. has already found there no.1 goalie in Jon Quick and Bernier has now taken a backseat. Well anyone who thinks Bernier won't eventually get his shot at becoming the no.1 in hollywood is dreaming. At the start of the season the Kings depth chart read in order Labarbera,Ersberg,Quick and Bernier. That could be completely reversed at the start of next season. Although "AHL" stud Jason Larbarbera has found a new home. Currently Bernier owns a 19-20-3 record in Manchester along with a 2.49 G.A.A., .909 save % with 3 shutouts. Solid but not earth shattering you say? Well neither is the defence in front of him or the rest of his teammates. Speaking of which , when he reaches the pros for good , he will
become part of something potentially very special. There hasn't been a group of young talent like this , where there is high upside players at every postion , in quite a while. The 11th overall pick in 2006 is on his way. Chris , I will admit I made  the statement with certain biases involved. However I'm sticking to my guns on this kid's future.

This is the time where you can literally steal players in your league. Acquiring Bernier and Burrows can be compare to the classic robbery from the The Wire's one and only Omar Little. Enjoy this week's clip.

Tonight's Starting Goalies - March 19, 2009

Make sure to hit the goaliepost.

What a surprise, neither the Bruins or Sharks are going to finish with 140+ points. Every season it is the same, the inevitable lull will hit and it usually takes your fantasy goaltender down with it. I will give Thomas credit, he is better than Manny Fernandez. But isn't that like saying that Creed is better than Days of the New?.......I thought Carey Price was back and then I saw one of the most horrific shootouts of all-time. He guessed three straight times, confident goaltender's may guess once, three times, not likely. He is getting better, but his confidence is still a little shaken. He doesn't look like he is back to 2008 form yet, be cautious with your starts.....I love the way the Caps play, but their goaltending will be exposed in the playoffs. If I was a Caps fan I would hold my breath and pray that Varlamov has a Cam Ward style run in him.....It is not often I pull for the Leafs, but with the Panthers trailing the Habs that scenario presents itself tonight, Martin Gerber? sigh. Can we call Jiri Crha to see what he is up to?......Is it really the best thing for Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers devlopment to be with Edmonton? I believe he cannot clear waivers, but if this guy is really valuable enough to be claimed on waivers, why has he only played 90 minutes in four months?.......Patience is a virtue, and all the Luongo owners who displayed some have been rewarded with a 15-2-1, 2.31 GAA and a .915 SV%. And I still don't think Luongo is playing at his full potential. I think the Canucks have shored up their deficincies and he is slowly regaining his dominant self. The media jumped into bed with the Flames for acquiring Jokinen, I like Vancouver's sleeper potential a hell of a lot more......Is the Chris Mason bandwagon empty again? In March he is 4-3-1 with a 3.10 GAA and a .891 SV%. The reason I don't continually post waiver wire pick ups is 1. The Gangster is lazy and 2. By the time Yahoo, ESPN etc tell you to pick up guys like Mason, they are generally just about ready to shit the bed. Until I find a columnist who tips me off to players BEFORE they get hot, I will stick to my own research.....Is Wayne Gretzky still coaching? Was he ever coaching?.......Nashville is in a mad dash for a playoff spot, why are they starting Dan Ellis? Since January 1st he is 1-6-1 with a 3.31 GAA and a .891 SV%. 

Roy/Brodeur debate rages on

More Roy/Brodeur talk over at the Goaliepost. It is likely that most of you are here because of the goalie post, but if you aren't, you should head over there. Great site and a great community for all who love goaltending. If you feel like wading into the discussion, please head over there, don't post here.

That guy stole my sign! The debate rages on, likely never to end!

Comments

Posted By: jean francois @ 7:56am EDT, Mar 17th 2009
please check the average of shots then face roy and brodeur per game im sure that is almost 30 for roy and less than 25 for brodeur. verified and publish the results thank you

Posted By: Chris Boyle @ 8:13am EDT, Mar 17th 2009 
Roy faced 28353 shots in 60235 minutes. Just over 28 shots per 60 minutes.

Brodeur faced 24720 shots in 58254 minutes. Just over 25 shots per 60 minutes.

Also, I have already received plenty of emails about why Hasek is not in the article. I addressed Hasek in the first link as to why I thought Roy was the greatest of all-time.

His career as a starter did not begin until he was 29 years old and he his numbers are nowhere near Roy/Brodeur's. Since the piece is called the Numbers, I did not project out the close to 300 games that never existed in order to compare him.

Posted By: Jay @ 1:44pm EDT, Mar 17th 2009
I understand that this is all subjective and that we're talking about overlapping eras but you are missing the big picture here. Numbers can be manipulated to say whatever you want. Even after you adjusted them to suit your argument, Brodeur still had slightly better numbers. It's pretty odd that you titled an argument for Roy with "The Numbers".

Posted By: Chris Boyle @ 2:09pm EDT, Mar 17th 2009
It is not an argument for Roy. It is an attempt to even the playing field in regards to their numbers. Hence the title

Brodeur vs Roy - The Numbers

It is a look at numbers that have been skewed by rule changes and different era's. Are you really telling me those slightly better numbers mean anything? The .04 SV%? The .10 GAA? Over 1000 games this proves somebody is better?

How can you tell me I am manipulating numbers when the numbers have already been manipulated? Their wins are not equal because Brodeur was presented with 41 bonus opportunities to win games that Roy was not. He also had over half his career in which he was not saddled with a loss should he lose a game in OT.

This has a direct correlation to win/losse/ties. If there were broader game by game stats being kept into the 80s I could have analyzed how many games that Roy lost that were counted as losses and not OTL/T. All of these have a direct impact on statistics accrued.

You are putting your head in the sand if you fail to recognize the difference. What if next season the NHL decided to add 5 assists per goal and enlarge the nets and Crosby tied Gretzky's record in less games, would you say I was manipulating stats if I decided to mention it when comparing how Crosby set the new record?

I have already made up my mind as of today. I am self admittedly biased. But I presented the revised numbers to present them in context. It is unfair to Roy to ignore such significant factors.

If you feel you want to make your judgement based on inconclusive numbers slanted for goaltender's born in the 70s and 80s, be my guest.

Posted By: dfallz @ 2:42pm EDT, Mar 17th 2009

in this article you are saying that brodeur has no losses in shoot out ... if you are taking his wins away and counting them as ties, ou must also take away his losses ... lastly the reason the gaa is lower now than before is because goalies have gotten better and they wear bigger equipment ... brodeur wears the tiniest equipment and still out performs all the other goalies ... roy was magnificent and won stanley cups on his own ... but brodeur has done that as well with more class

Posted By: Nik @ 2:50pm EDT, Mar 17th 2009
Roy is hands down the #1 goalie! Brodeur is one of the greatest hands down but if they played exactly the same games, during the same time Roy would be number one..love the article and good luck to brodeur

Posted By: Tyler G @ 2:59pm EDT, Mar 17th 2009 
Maybe you should have put playoff stats into the picture. Roy, after all, is best known for playoff feats, like success in overtime and wins. I highly doubt that Brodeur can ever match Roy's playoff victories.
Posted By: Chris Boyle @ 3:22pm EDT, Mar 17th 2009 

dfallz

Brodeur's losses in the shootout register as ties. I never changed his losses because OT losses register as OTL/T. They were already included.

I am not getting into equipment, systems, playoffs, influence etc. Those were things I covered in my link to Roy as the Greatest of All-Time in the second paragraph.

This was only a look at the numbers and how NHL rule changes don't present the numbers properly. It is not meant to present an argument for Roy as the best, if it comes across as that, then I did a poor job of presenting it.

Posted By: Roy @ 3:56pm EDT, Mar 17th 2009 
All that needs to be looked at is the Stanley Cup finals from the 2001 season. The winner me!

Posted By: Geoff @ 4:15pm EDT, Mar 17th 2009 
Keep in mind that games didn't involve 'shootouts' when Roy played. With that said, how many of Brodeur's games or rather wins have been the direct result of a 'shootout'? Either way, he would break the record sooner or later anyway.

Posted By: Eric @ 9:12pm EDT, Mar 17th 2009
The era's may be different but everything averages out in the end. There is still no consideration for the system that the Devil's patented and the fact that most of the Devil's teams never had a 90 or even 80 point scorer. They won with a stellar defense and he didnt have the advantage of playing behind the likes of Sakic and Forsberg in their primes. I think it is a wash and still think Marty is/will be the greatest goalie we will see in our lifetime. The system the Devils employed facilitated many of the goalie changes that were made in the nineties such as the restrictions on goalie puck control and crease dimensions. All in all, it is an interesting comparison between the 2 of the best goalies we may ever see.

Posted By: Gill @ 11:54am EDT, Mar 18th 2009
I guess never being much of a fan of Roy, mostly because of the teams he played for, perhaps my arguments will lean me towards brodeur, but I think that your analysis spins things slightly incorrectly.

Several points have been mentioned here. Brodeur certainly did not have the offense power in front of him that Roy had, so it becomes difficult to compare. And certainly the quality of the defense impacts a goalie's stats...was Brodeur's defense better than Patrick Roy. Perhaps. Just from the simply fact that Roy faced a lot more rubber year in and year out, despite playing in probably less games. Nevertheless Brodeur's GAA numbers are kind of staggering, and if you just take the GAA of the years in which Brodeur and Roy were simultaneously in the league, Brodeurs GAA average is simply better in that period from 1993-2002, the wins are almost identical. And I think it is valid to believe that the effort NJ might put into an overtime period, knowing they brodeur in the shootout is a consideration.

But I think there are a few intangibles that make Brodeur better. He has many more shutouts than Roy, in less games, and that cannot be overlooked. A goalie who can fairly consistently shutout more than 10% of the games he plays in a season, has to get into the opponents head.

In addition, I believe, I have no statistics, but I think Brodeur is simply the best puck handling goalie I have ever seen. His ability to play the puck efficiently is a big reason why he doesn't see to much rubber.

Also there is something to be said about what a horse he is. He has 11 seasons so far in which he has played more than 70 games. While it is unknown whether Roy could handle the workload, we know Brodeur certainly can, and we know that a lot of goalies simply couldn't.

Posted By: Chris Boyle @ 12:31pm EDT, Mar 18th 2009
GIll, I did not want to get into all the various factors in regards to their careers because there are way to many variables to deduce a legitimate winner.

Roy's early career was set under a Pat Burns system and the offensive firepower was not available to him. Comparing his numbers while they played together does not take systems into effect. Also, looking at Roy's numbers in his Vezina years is unfair to him because they are inflated because of an NHL where 3.5 goals were scored per game.

It is why I simplified it and just used numbers and sensical factors as to why they should be adjusted.

I presented the numbers for you to make up your own mind. I disagree with you and feel you are disregarding plenty of factors in regards to Roy, but the point of the column was not to persuade you. You are free to make your own mind up.

Posted By: eattheworm @ 12:52pm EDT, Mar 18th 2009

Has no-one noticed that Roy just left a comment? Nice to see you at the game in Montreal to watch Brodeur tie it. Class.

Posted By: MoonDragn @ 1:03pm EDT, Mar 18th 2009
Eric, Devils had few 80,90 point scorers. Patrik Elias is a good example. It is true that the devils used a very tight defensive trap system during the 1995 stanley cup, but that system was Jacques Lemaire's and the system went when he did. The different NJ coaches over the years all had diff systems and in fact Pat Burns was NJ's coach for the 2003 Stanley cup.

Chris, it is ok if you want to discount shootouts, but then you have to also take in consideration all the other rule changes brought about to increase scoring. The clutching and grabbing changes, the trapezoid addition aimed at Brodeur, the red line etc. The game is also different now than it was back when Roy played, Composite sticks, more balanced teams cause of the Cap. If you only take one factor and remove it, then you really skew the results in favor of Roy. When Roy beat Sawchuk, he did it with more than 70 games per season and with overtime wins. Does this mean Roy is no better than Sawchuk?

Posted By: Chris Boyle @ 1:38pm EDT, Mar 18th 2009 
Sometimes I wonder if people read the whole post.

I have said it 3-4 times. I am not here to discuss who was better. I already created a whole post and linked it in the second paragraph about why I thought Roy was the greatest of the POST EXPANSION era. I also stated in this article that IMO I feel there are SIX factors to determine greatness.

I never ranked Roy against Sawchuk because it is impossible to rank a goaltender who played without a mask to one who did. You cannot compare era's that began 35 years apart. Is Roy better than Sawchuk? I don't know, would Gretzky have scored 215 pts in a season if he did not get to play Winnipeg, Hartford, Toronto etc in a watered down league where 360 players played in a league that would not have played in the original six era? Did europeans even out the talent pool? Has the talent pool been watered down? It is an argument that can NEVER be proved, statistics or otherwise.

As for all the changes (ie clutching grabbing etc) they were discussed in the part where I mentioned average scoring per season. There are no changes that have been made in the last 10 years that could come close to evening the playing field from the 80s. Roy played in an era where 215 pts were scored and Brett Hull had 3 straight 70 goal seasons. If I had the choice of a wooden stick and Grant Fuhr in net or a composite stick and JS Giguere, I am taking the wooden stick and Fuhr EVERY TIME.

Fuhr played in leather pads not synthetic ones, those were not introduced until the late 80s by Barrasso, Richard Brodeur and Reggie Lemelin. Would Broduer have been able to move as quickly with leather pads? Nobody knows. Would he have been effective wearing a 70s/early 80s inspired ghost mask? Nobody knows. Would Roy have dedicated his career to the butterfly if his face was exposed? Once again, nobody knows.

But I digress, I don't think I have made any outrageous leaps. Brodeur has been rewarded with 25 bonus wins and 41 extra opportunities. THAT IS A FACT. He played in a lower scoring era. THAT IS A FACT. So I used common sense to present a reasonable understanding of how the statistics would be affected. Nothing more, nothing less.

Come to whatever conclusions you want.

Posted By: Keith J Sauter @ 7:34pm EDT, Mar 18th 2009 
"Brodeur does own a significant advantage over Roy in goals against average. Is this accurate and fair to Roy who played over half of his career in an era where the league averaged over 3 goals per game (including the 1985-86 season where the league average was 4)? Contrast that to Martin Brodeur who has competed in only three of 16 seasons where the league has posted 3 goals per game."

This is nonsensical - Brodeur's GAA superiority is of course a fair comparison. You're actually penalizing Brodeur because the other goaltenders from Roy's time allowed more goals than other goaltenders from Brodeur's time. Neither Roy nor Brodeur can control what other goaltenders can or can't do - they can only control what happens in the games they themselves are playing in. In fact, this could be another point in Brodeur's favor, since it apparently illustrates that Brodeur was/is being opposed by higher quality goaltenders in the games that he's played, and thus the wins should have been harder to come by. I would also be interested in seeing a comparison of the goal support that Roy and Brodeur received from their respective teams - I would guess the Canadiens/Avalanche scored more goals for Roy than the Devils have scored in support of Brodeur. If my assumption is correct, then Brodeur is the better goalie because he HAD to be.

Posted By: Keith J Sauter @ 8:12pm EDT, Mar 18th 2009 
"Outside of shutouts it is not as dominant as it initially looks."

You also can't just dismiss the difference in shutouts in one sentence. When one goalie has 50% more shutouts than another (over 16 year careers), in my opinion that's a pretty good argument that he's better.

Posted By: Chris Boyle @ 8:16pm EDT, Mar 18th 2009 
It is exactly what I am implying. When the Vezina trophy winner in 1989 posts a 2.49 GAA and that mark would trail 19 goalies in 1999 it is a clear indication that the era was lower scoring.

In 1989 SIX goaltenders out of 34 in the NHL (30 starts) finished the season with a sub 3.00 GAA. In 1999 THREE goaltenders out of 34 in the NHL (30 starts) finished the season with a 3.00 GAA.

So what is the assumption? That the 28 of the goaltenders in 1989 were incompetent and in 1999 31 of the goaltenders were not incompetent? Is that what you are saying?

I guess it is also a coincidence that Brodeur's four worst seasons in regards to his GAA also happen to be the seasons in which the league average for goals were at 3 and up? But it is not a factor at all right?

Brodeur's GAA in the 4 seasons where the league gave up an average of 3 goals a game is 2.44. In the 11 seasons in which he played where the league averaged below 3 a game his average is 2.12.

I guess it is also ridiculous to believe that if you added 8 more seasons to his career in which the league averaged 3-4 goals a game it would affect his goals against average in no way, am I interpreting what you said right?

And you are throwing out terms like nonsensical?

Posted By: Andrew @ 8:37pm EDT, Mar 18th 2009
Great article Chris! People! Stop posting remarks towards things that he has already explained. If you aren't smart enough to get it the first time then read it again. If not then please do not comment. We cannot predict what Roy's numbers would look like if he played with shootout wins/ties etc. but likely he would have less losses and more wins that would take him over the top on Brodeur. Simply put he has more Vezina's more stanley's and he revolutionized the way goaltending is played today. Is there a goaltender more emulated in history then Roy?? No!! Brodeur patterned himself after Roy. Brodeur is awesome no question but isn't the best of all time. I challenge anyone to find a more dominating playoff performance then Roy in his rookie year of 1986.

Posted By: Chris Boyle @ 10:16pm EDT, Mar 18th 2009
Roy had 20 shutouts in his first 8 years in the league. An era in which not one season offered up less than 3.45 goals per game.

When Brodeur entered the league in 1993-94 Roy registered 46 shutouts in 9 seasons. A much lower scoring era.

In 1989 the league registered 44 shutouts or 2.12 per 82 games played. 1n 1999 the league registered 157 shutouts or 5.67 per 82 games played. 1n 2009 the league has already registered 131 shutouts or 5.07 per 82 games played.

It is pretty easy to see the correlation to shutouts and why goaltenders like Brodeur and Belfour registered more than Roy and severely outdistance 80s contemporaries like Mike Liut (25), Grant Fuhr (25), Andy Moog (28) and Mike Vernon (27).

Roman Turek (27), Arturs Irbe (33), Tommy Salo (37), Felix Potvin (32) and Chris Osgood (47) were not better than Grant Fuhr (25) and Osgood's 47 does not solidify an argument for him being better.

Posted By: Keith J Sauter @ 11:39pm EDT, Mar 18th 2009
OK,"nonsensical" may have been a bit harsh, HOWEVER:

100 divided by 66 equals 1.515, or in other words Brodeur had 51.5% more shutouts than Roy (I actually rounded down in my earlier post). THAT is the correct way to calculate percentages.

On the other hand, I may be willing to concede that had Brodeur played in earlier seasons, his GAA may have gone up. If Roy had played in subsequent seasons, his GAA may have gone down. Nevertheless, in the 10 concurrent seasons in which they both played a substantial number of games (leaving out Brodeur's 4 games played in 1991-92), Brodeur had a better GAA in 7 of them, Roy had a better GAA in 2, and one season their GAA's were the same.

During those same 10 seasons, when Roy had 46 shutouts, Brodeur had 64 (only 39.1% more but I think you get my point).

Of course, Brodeur's shutout superiority during that time in partly due to the increased number of games he played. From the 1995-96 season until Roy's retirement after 2002-03, he averaged almost 10 games more a season than Roy. However, that also illustrates Brodeur's superior endurance, and gives his edge in GAA even more weight (Brodeur has played 70 or more games in a season 11 times in his career - how many seasons did Roy play 70 games?).

I agree that with the shootout situation perhaps we should see how things stand after Brodeur has played 43 more games, but again I'd like to see a comparison of the goal support they received from their teammates.

Also to Andrew who posted above - Brodeur has more Vezinas than Roy, and there's a good chance he might equal Roy in Stanleys this year, or at least eventually.

One thing Brodeur does have that Roy doesn't is an Olympic gold medal, despite the fact that he actually allowed his backup to play in one of the games.

Posted By: Chris Boyle @ 9:54am EDT, Mar 19th 2009
The whole point of the article was to point out that the stats are deceiving. And they are, the non adjusted stats do not present a fair account of their careers.

Did Brodeur have a better average than Roy from 1993-94 to 2002-03? Yes, 2.18 to 2.37.

Is that offset by Roy having a superior SV% of .916 to .912 while facing over 1000 shots more in the same time period? (Was Roy's career SV% negatively affected from his years from 1986 - 1993 when only 25 goaltenders registered a .900 SV% over an 8 year period (30 games) when 33 goaltenders accomplished that feat in 2008?)

As for wins during that span, Brodeur averaged 45 per 82 GP, Roy 44 per 82 GP. Shutouts Brodeur 8 and Roy 6.

Do these numbers really present as overwhelming a case for Brodeur as they do on the surface? As for durability, Roy never had a major injury in his career and his lack of starts is not something that should be held against him, that is a coaching/management decision.

As for the Olympic Medal, it doesn't really mean anything. Henrik Lundqvist and Tommy Salo also have one. Roy was outstanding in Nagano in 1998, he allowed 1 goal in the 70 minute quarter final and 1 goal in a 5 shooter shootout. Lemieux has a gold medal and Gretzky doesn't, does that mean anything? Should we also credit Marty for his World Cup of Hockey title?

But once again I digress. An argument for greatest of all-time can be forged for either goaltender. There are plenty of factors outside of stats that define both of their legacies.

Roy was Brodeur's equal in production throughout their regular season careers if analyzed in a fair manner.

If Brodeur plays an extra 200 games it does not change MY perspective. But if he wins 2 more Cups and partners them with back to back Conn Smythe trophies, then that may alter MY opinion in his favour.

Brodeur vs Roy - The Numbers

As Martin Brodeur prepares to eclipse Patrick Roy's All-Time win mark on St. Patrick's Day (ironic, not in an Alanis Morrisette way), I thought I would look at some numbers that are routinely overlooked by the media in an assessment of his greatness.

Personally, I have made it known on my site who I feel is the best goaltender of the post expansion era, and that is Patrick Roy.

Roy was also recognized as the greatest fantasy goaltender of the last 20 seasons in my evaluation of the best 100 fantasy goaltenders. But Roy benefitted from being eligible for more regular seasons, the difference between the two was miniscule and Brodeur has plenty of opportunity to alter those results should he play a couple of more seasons.

My bias will ultimately push me towards Patrick Roy in the argument, but the difference statistically is more razor thin than most believe. It would be easy to look at their statistics and come to simple conclusions, just like it would be a simplistic assertion that Roy was better because he has more Cups, Conn Smyth trophies and won their only head to head matchup in the Stanley Cup Final. 

I believe that their are a variety of factors to recognize greatness. Regular season success, longevity, acknowledgement that you are the best at your position, playoff success and innovation and career influence.

Where Brodeur will ultimately outdistance Patrick Roy is career statistics. He has better statistics across the board.

More wins and shutouts, a better goals against average, winning percentage and save percentage, all accomplished in 3 seasons less than Roy.  Statistical dominance right?

But how accurate are these statistics? 

In 16 seasons Brodeur has played only 43 games less than Roy, for a player that averages over 65 games a season he is setting the record in just over 2/3 of a season less. That is where the change of rules alters how the numbers are viewed.

In 2005-06 the NHL added the shootout to the rules. A rule that did not exist during Patrick Roy's career. So if Brodeur's 27 shootout wins are removed from his career numbers he would sit at 524 wins with 43 games to tie the mark in the same amount of games. Remove these wins and add them to his tie column and his winning percentage drops from .633 to .619. 

If you assume that Brodeur will continue along at his adjusted pace his record would place him at 23-17-3 over those 43 games. Just about the same career pace as Patrick Roy.

So his win pace is essentially equal to that of Roy, which is a fair evaluator as there is very little to choose between each of their careers. Brodeur does own a significant advantage over Roy in goals against average. Is this accurate and fair to Roy who played over half of his career in an era where the league averaged over 3 goals per game (including the 1985-86 season where the league average was 4)? Contrast that to Martin Brodeur who has competed in only three of 16 seasons where the league has posted 3+ goals per game.

Over Roy's career the league average was 3.20 goals per game, for Brodeur the number is 2.84 a difference of close to 11%. When adjusted for the league scoring differential the gap in the goals against average becomes even closer.

Take a look at the adjusted numbers.

Outside of shutouts it is not as dominant as it initially looks. Their winning percentage is almost identical and Brodeur's goals against average advantage is reduced to .10, a 4% difference which translates into 41 goals over a whole career. 

Considering that Roy faced an average of 3 extra shots per game, is it a stretch to say that this category is also a wash?

I did not project out the games that Brodeur has yet to play because I do not want to project the unknown. It is unfair to speculate fairly on what has yet to be. I think it is fair to say that it would be very tight for Brodeur to accomplish the feat in less games than Roy.

I understand that there remains a possibility that if the shootout point was removed that it may have altered the results of the OT finishes, maybe the Devils would have pushed for more regulation wins, but how dramatically would Roy's numbers have been altered had the first 13 seasons of his career included overtime periods in which teams played 4 on 4 and the losing team was awarded a guaranteed point? How many OT losses would have been credited as an OTL/T and not a L? How many games would the dominant teams he played on have produced victories instead of ties? How would this have altered his winning percentage? Would it have been enough to alter perceptions further?

What Martin Brodeur is about to accomplish tonight is amazing, and he does deserve full credit for such a coveted record. He is definitely in the argument for greatest goaltender of the post expansion era, but I don't feel it is as cut and dry as the media would have you believe.

I believe that my observations are fair to both goaltenders and I have already made my decision, but Broduer has time to alter that decision. I encourage you to look at these overlooked factors and come to your own conclusions.

The debate rages on here.

Top Fifty Roto Players - February 2009

Rotisserie owners rejoice, here is a comprehensive list of the top 50 fantasy hockey roto performers through March 1st and my debut article for Dobberhockey.com

In order to establish a ranking the yahoo default league scoring has been used to judge who had the best roto performance among all NHL players through March.

Skaters : 

Goals/Assists/Plus-Minus/Power Play Points/PIMS/Shots on Goal

Goaltenders : 

Wins/Goals Against Average/Save Percentage/Shutouts

Now these rankings are not on projected basis or positional importance. They are based on who actually performed the best in the roto categories amongst all NHL skaters through the first five months of the season.

The 2009 season has been a slugfest between Alexander Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin as they have occupied the top two positions for four of the five months. The changing of the guard is also in full swing as seven of the top ten were players drafted after 2003. Names like Getzlaf, Perry and Parise have replaced legends Sakic, Iginla and Brodeur at the top of the list. It has also marked the year of the backup goaltender as players like Pekka Rinne, Tim Thomas, Scott Clemmensen and Craig Anderson have made appearances.

Below I have provided each player and their contribution in each category. Every square marked red indicates whether the player can produce more than the corresponding number. So if Malkin produces over 30 goals it will be indicated with a red square, under 30 goals will be represented by a grey square. I have also provide each players monthly rotisserie ranking and an arrow indicating their monthly movement, green for up, red for down.

Now remember this is the result of weighing all categories equally which rotisserie rankings do. Being number one in goal scoring is the same as being number one in penalty minutes. The top 100 favours skaters as they occupy 60% of the scoring categories, but dominant goaltenders are recognized.

On to the top 50

After chasing the top spot for 4 months Evgeni Malkin finally supplants Ovechkin for the number one ranking. Malkin has been spectacular all season and as a six category stud has remained remarkably consistent. Although he trails Ovechkin badly in SOG, his 25 assist advantage pushed him just past the Great Eight into first for March. This battle is so tight it will likely not be settled until Game 82. I don't think an ugly contest could seperate these two.

After a slow start to the season Ovechkin caught fire in November and it lead him to a 3 month reign at the top of my rotisserie rankings. Although he was finally displaced in February, Ovechkin did not go down with a whimper, his monster offensive month included 19 points in 12 games and a ridiculous 83 shots. Ovechkin is a factor in every category and if your league includes shots on goal then Ovechkin guarantees you a victory in that category. His February included a 12 shot night, a stat that has gone unmatched since Jenna Jameson retired.

I was tempted to list this entry as Tim Thomas/Claude Julien, as I feel the latter's contribution has been severely underrated. But Thomas' miraculous season continues. Thomas is the ultimate value pick. He was likely a late round selection/waiver addition this season, when added to the monster numbers he has produced at that reduced rate he has likely been the deciding factor in plenty of fantasy championships. These factors make him my fantasy MVP in 2009. 2010? Now that is a different story.

Getzlaf's fantasy rise has been meteoric, but I still feel he is underappreciated in fantasy. Although he is not a 6 category stud yet, Getzlaf's a season away from joining Malkin, Ovechkin and Crosby among the 6 category fantasy rotisserie elite. Getzlaf's plus/minus is a reflection of a poor Duck's team and he is just going to miss the benchmarks I set for goals and shots on goal. Now if only he can avoid taking Propecia and testing positive for a banned substance his keeper owners will be set for a decade.

The world of fantasy hockey revolves around the now, because of this Crosby has been pushed aside by the rise of Evgeni Malkin and Alexander Ovechkin, but because of age, I believe it is premature. If this is a Crosby down year, I think I can deal with a top 5 finish. At only 21, Crosby is a 6 category stud and has yet to hit his peak. A return to number one in the near future is not out of the question.

The only player this year to finish a month in the number one spot outside of Malkin and Ovechkin. Hossa has been an underrated fantasy performer for years. Outside of PIMs he regularly contributes in five categories. Hossa is the Brian Westbrook of fantasy hockey, he may get surpassed by the sexier names, but at the end of the year he is generally one of the most productive roto producers.

The biggest lock in fantasy hockey is the expectation that a Minnesota Wild goaltender will finish in the top 10 in goaltending efficiency. With Backstrom re-signing with the master of defense, Jacques Lemare, his rank among the elite is all but guaranteed.

Breakout. Zach Parise has vaulted into the fantasy elite in 2009. A five category contributor who is just scratching the surface of his potential. It is unlikely he will ever become a 6 category monster, because there is nothing to suggest a spike in PIMs looking back at his NCAA and pro career.

Everybody praises Brian Burke with some shrewd moves to secure the 2007 Stanley Cup, but that Cup never materializes without the 2003 Draft Bonanza that landed Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf. Perry is blessed with great hands as well as vision and like Getzlaf is on the verge of becoming a six category horse. In a roto keeper league he is virtually untouchable.

Talk about a changing of the guard. Seven of the top 10 players were all drafted after 2003. Jeff Carter finally broke through in 2009 and worked his way among the fantasy elite. Another stud from the class of 2003 who has the opportunity to become relevant in six categories. Carter has dropped from his peak ranking in December, but he still held on to the top 10 and has an outside shot at 50 goals. Why is it again that Leaf fans are angry at Sundin and not Kaberle? If Kaberle had waived his NTC, Carter would be wearing the Blue and White and playing with Jason Blake and Lee Stempniak. Fantasy owners owe Kaberle a debt of gratitude.

A charter member of the Pascal Leclaire All-Stars, Datsyuk is another underappreciated fantasy stud. He is continually shopped in my keeper league with zero results. How can a 30 year old player who year after year dominates 5 categories be so underappreciated? Originally I thought it was because he was ugly, but Malkin is not ostracized in the same manner. I find in keeper leagues that 30 year olds can be had at a bargain rate because owners overrate youth. Outside of ugly, it is all I could come up with.

Savard is a consistent three category contributor who dominates the assist category yearly. Although his power play points and PIMs have dropped it has been offset with the team oriented plus/minus stat in 2009. Savard is not the superpest he once was so his PIMs are unlikely to regain their previous form, Savard's numbers at 31 are on the downswing but his penchant for monster assists numbers will keep him relevant in fantasy.

Steve Mason is putting up one of the greatest statistical rookie seasons in NHL history. His debut is on par with Tony Esposito, Ken Dryden, Patrick Roy and Ed Belfour. I think Ken Hitchcock has some responsibility for his numbers, but even so, there have been plenty of defensive coaches over the history of the game and not many 20 year olds who are mature enough to remain consistent and handle the heat of the NHL. I thought Mason was overrated, not anymore.

Iginla is on the tail end of his fantasy prime, a prime that saw him peak as a six category contributor. Iginla is still capable of bouncing back in the next couple of years, is it likely he returns to 50 goals, 50 assists, +27, 85 PIM, 33 power play points and 300+ shots on goal from a season ago? The jury is out, but I would not write him off as he has shown outstanding resiliency throughout his career.

Welcome back Patrik Elias. After a 2 year vacation Elias has returned with a vengeance. Although he has declined slightly from his peak in December, Elias has been productive in five categories in 2009. Elias is the type of player who gives me fantasy headaches, when he is at his best he can carry your team, but he is just as likely to disappear for seasons at a time. 2009 has been a renaissance for Elias, but I was always a bigger fan of baroque, so seeing as his historical pattern has been 2 bad years for 1 good one. I think I will pass in 2010.

Richards continues to get better every season. Outside of PIMs, Richards has improved in every category from his breakout campaign of 2008. Richards is a pitbull and should continue to be a dominant rotisserie force in the near future. He has the potential to be a six category guy.

Green's ranking would be ten places higher if he had not missed 13 games earlier in the season. Six category contribution from a defenseman is unheard of in fantasy. 30+ goals is the Orr, Coffey and Bourque stratosphere, the fact that he has almost passed all the category limits in 55 games goes to show how special his 2009 season has been. The amazing thing about Green is that he could have been plucked off a waiver wire 16 months ago and today he is fantasy's most dominant rearguard. Mike Green is proof of the importance of owning your waiver wire early in the season.

One of the reasons I love roto pools is because it tends to recognize well rounded players like Henrik Zetterberg. Zetterberg has had four straight seasons of five category excellence and owning him is rewarded in fantasy and reality. His one weakness is PIMs, and just another reason why I feel the category is ridiculous. It seems ridiculous to think that Zetterberg's biggest weakness is his lack of ability to put his team at a numerical disadvantage, but that is his weakness. It is like if I listed on my resume that the biggest drawback to hiring me is my lack of assault charges. It is a bizarre mindset, but as long as it is a default setting I have to recognize it.

I guess there is a reason that Daniel was drafted ahead of Henrik. He is well rounded and the more desirable of the twins. One wonders what type of fantasy impact he is capable of should he leave the restrictive nature of the Canucks system. On a team like the Capitals or Red Wings he would have the potential to crack the top 10, but as long as he remains on an Alain Vigneault coached team his owners will have to be happy with a top 20 ranking.

Kovalchuk's 2009 campaign is proof positive that fantasy pools are not won in November. November is the time to bargain shop as players of this ilk will always produce. If they start slow they usually follow it with a torrid finish. Kovalchuk wasn't among the top 50 players through the first 2 months of the season, but since March 1st, he has 15 goals and 13 assists for 28 points in 16 games. It is not a stretch to think that by the end of the season he can crack the top 10.

Heatley has dropped significantly this year from a six category contributor to four. Heatley is an example of why the plus/minus category is more of a team reflection than individual. In his previous 3 seasons with Ottawa contending, Heatley averaged a +31, this season he is a -9. Twenty Eight year old four time 40 goal scorer do not grow on trees, so don't overreact to his off year.

Koivu announced himself to the fantasy world with a 5 point night in October, the outburst gave him 9 points in his first 3 games and lead a procession of owners to the waiver wire. Koivu has five category potential, but as long as he plays on the Wild he will likely settle into his current zone. I wonder if I would have traded him in my keeper league had Gaborik been around, well the answer is yes because I got Jonathan Toews, but I would have thought about for 10-15 seconds longer.

In all realities Lecavalier should be in the top 5 of this category. Here is hoping he gets dealt to la belle provence in the off season so he can return to his 50 goal form. Outside of the +/- category that has been the bane of his fantasy existence, Lecavalier should be a five category horse and I fully expect a return to the upper echelon next season. I will be shocked if he remains in Tampa, when an ownership group is giving away hockey tickets for free, it makes it hard for them to pay one guy $100M.

With the departure of Ron Wilson to Toronto, Patrick Marleau returned from screwing over fantasy owners in 2008 to become relevant again. I try to stay away from inconsistent players as much as possible, but at his bargain basement price before this season he would have been irresistable. Joe Thornton could make Homer Simpson productive and when there is any opportunity to flank the Tin Man, you have to take a look.

Rinne has been impressive in his rookie season for the Predators. With great size and athleticism he has been dominant and has dislodged last year's sensation Dan Ellis from the crease. Rinne is taking a legit run at the Calder trophy and will likely wage a fierce battle down the stretch with Steve Mason, Bobby Ryan and Kris Versteeg for the honour. Nashville has been a revolving door of one year fantasy wonders lately and Rinne will have alot to prove next season.

Every year I wait for Rick Nash to breakthrough, yet every year I am left wanting. His progression has been slow and steady but every season he does seem to add something to his game. As long as Ken Hitchcock is the coach Nash may struggle to unlock his true fantasy potential, but his career trajectory does suggest that six category production is possible. As Brassard, Voracek and Filatov improve so to will the powerplay. Of course Nash could flee to Free Agency in 16 months altering all possible projection scenarios.

Two categories? It shows the power of dominating one category and remaining relatively productive in the other five. If you removed SOG, misdemeanor disorderly conduct and obstructing legal process as categories then Staal would have crashed out of the top 50. The fantasy world continues to wait for a repeat of 2005-06 when Staal was a top 5 rotisserie player, at 24 he is still young enough to return to dominant form and earn the early draft reach that most owners take when selecting him.

If Semin was not injured he would be in the top five of this list. But Semin is a yearly contributor to the Marian Havorik All-Stars (a team of constantly injured superstars. Martin Havlat+Marian Gaborik + Marian Havorik, other members include Tim Connolly and Kari Lehtonen). Semin has averaged 60 games a season over his career. If you can acquire him for cheap he has the potential to pay monster dividends, but at full price I think I will pass.

Brown has flown under the radar for years as an up and coming fantasy producer. He does not dominate any category but remains productive throughout five. With the improvement of the Kings, Brown's plus/minus numbers should rise, improving his value. Brown is a shot whore and if your league uses SOG as a category, then Brown is a nice add.

I will be the first to admit that I cut bait on Souray following his career 2007 season, and although he has rebounded in 2009 I do not regret the decision. With his injury history and his abysmal plus/minus record I was ultimately rewarded when he bowed out after 26 games in 2008. Souray when healthy is a top five defenseman, but he is as brittle as he is pretty. When you load up on injury prone players and they get injured, it is not misfortune, I prefer risk aversion and will always take the player with a ligher upside for the guarantee he will remain healthy.

Doan's greatest value comes from the position he plays. With elite level right wingers going five to six deep Doan's three category production is valuable in rotisserie pools. His hidden production is underrated and he is easily overlooked for sexier names like Martin Havlat, Ales Hemsky and Nikolai Zherdev. He lacks the TUP (tremendous upside potential) of those three, but it is foot soldiers like these that help win roto pools.

Unless you are in a 20 team league it is unlikely that Langenbrunner was even drafted. With Elias hopping in the rejuvenation machine, Langenbrunner has drafted his way to a strong season. Since January 1st Langenbrunner has 17 goals and 16 assists for 33 points in 29 games. He has also registered a +17 and 96 shots which is elite right wing production.

Blake rose as high as seven in the November rankings, with Barry Melrose's mullet back coaching in the NHL I started flipping channels looking for the OJ chase. But the veteran has shown every one of his 40 years since the turn of the calendar, since Jan 1st Blake production has plummeted producing just 14 of his 39 points and my Ace of Base album is back where it belongs. With 2009 expectations being zero, Blake has been a pleasant roto surprise.

Patrick Kane has been traded five times in my roto keeper league. That sounds ridiculous, but he was flipped in packages for Malkin, Nash/Kipprusoff and Getzlaf/Hodgson. Those names go a long way towards projecting his potential. Kane will be a five category guy and if you don't believe in PIMs will be a roto stud for the next 15 years.

I think Barry Melrose was fired because the NHL couldn't maintain two mullets of this magnitude. With Melrose fired Smyth has 44 points in 44 games and has allowed Avalanche fans to forget the fact that Peter Budaj and Andrew Raycroft play goal. At 33 Smyth is exiting his prime and his roto future is limited.

Do you think the Senators would like a mulligan on the Chara decision? Wade Redden? Really? Chara is among the elite roto defensemen in fantasy and his value is strengthened if you league includes PIMs.

Sergei Puckisin got off to a slow start in 2009, but since November he has been one of the most productive right wingers in fantasy. Puckisin has been fantastic and his +6 rating is astonishing on such a brutal team. I remain a big fan as an owner since 2004, but with my recent acquisition of Corey Perry, Puckisin will be on the fantasy unemployment line in 2010.

While compiling the top 100 list I was shocked that Blake cracked the top 40. You would think a 40 goal scorer who recovered from cancer the next season would be given more slack, but Blake returned with little fanfare and has produced a solid season.

Anytime a winger rides shotgun with Joe Thornton I have a hard time deciphering whether he is Jari Kurri or Warren Young. Setoguchi could be a fantasy stud, or he could be Jonathan Cheechoo 2.0. He is a gamble, but a productive gamble.

Players like Hartnell are the reason I am not a big fan of PIMs in fantasy hockey. His high PIMs inflate his roto ranking, but if your league uses the category than his contribution cannot be ignored.

One wonders if Backstrom followed Ovechkin to Russia for his grandfathers funeral because he did not begin to produce until he returned. But his ranking goes to show that fantasy titles are not decided in November, it isn't where you start the season, it's where you end. Ask the Sens Army about that.

As likely the second defenseman drafted after Mike Green, I wonder at how many 2010 fantasy drafts will Phaneuf be referred to as sloppy seconds. It also makes you wonder how much Yoko has to do with his dropoff in every category? Phaneuf's PIMs have dropped from 182 to 90!!!! Unfortunately the Flames don't visit the Rangers this season, because there is a good chance that Phaneuf could have piled up 30-40 minutes in one game.

I don't know if there is a player who suffers from a larger drop off between pool formats. A perennial 90-100 pt player who is coveted in points leagues, but is a borderline top 50 player in roto leagues. Thornton is an assist maching, but he does not impact the other five categories to be a significant roto factor.

Is it acceptable to refer to a player from Buffalo as "on fire"? I grew up in Toronto with 20 channels, 3 of which originated in Buffalo. Outside of Commander Tom, the brilliant calls of Ted Darling (Baraaaaaaaasso) and the Bills losing Super Bowls, I was always fascinated how 85% of the Buffalo newscasts began with a fire in Cheektowaga or Tonawanda. Well the diminutive forward has been on fire in four categories and has been a point per game player since late 2008.

Cammalleri has rewarded patient owners with a great bounceback season in 2009 as he and Jarome Iginla have developed some fantastic chemistry. He has five category potential, but the UFA may have to play his trade elsewhere with the acquisition of Olli Jokinen. The Flames face a future cap mess and Cammalleri may be the one who takes the hit.

I cannot give a proper assesment of Martin Havlat. He is my fantasy kryptonite, to many seasons I held onto him and his TUP before I finally dumped on another unsuspecting owner. Havlat is a founding member of the Marian Havorik All-Stars and a player who I will never own again.

Weber exploded out of the gate in 2009 and was justifiably placed in the same atmosphere as the S.S. Phaneuf. He has faded badly in the second half and will be likely to maintain a position in the top 50, but I think we are just seeing the tip of the iceberg, if Weber can remain healthy he will spend the next 10 years in the top 25 of this list.

I love Simon Gagne's game, but I am a tad gun shy for large forwards on the Philadelphia Flyers with concussion issues. Let's hope Gagne can avoid joining Lindros and Primeau from staggering around the ice like two drunks and destroying his five category potential.

Ryan Clowe (see 39 - Devin Setoguchi)

I remember a time where the six million dollar man meant Lee Majors in a kick ass sweatsuit, bionic vision and the ability to kick big foot's ass. Now the seven million dollar man represents an overpaid and underachieving Scott Gomez.