The vacation is over!Well, if you consider preparing 330 player charts, writing 300 profiles, researching prospects and reading every player profile imaginable, then yes, my vacation is now over.
I am still in the process of creating 30 fantasy profiles for 30 teams. I have created charts that highlight each players last 5 seasons, their rotisserie potential, their PPG per quarter and their season point projections.
I was torn on whether to include projections because I believe that projections are based on factors that have yet to be determined, so they can't even be qualified as educated guesses.
My solution? I took the projections from all the main fantasy hockey sources and averaged them out. It was no surprise that the majority of these projections all fell within 5 points of each other. Why? They all exercise on the side of caution as it is easier to save face when a 9th rounder breaks out, then to explain to your readers why you convinced them to use a high draft pick on a guy who underachieves. When was the last time anybody was called out on their projection performance? What you will hear in September is the players that an individual told you about, but a total lack of accountability for the player who fell on his face.
I could spend the next 3 paragraphs telling you I recommended Mikko Koivu, Cam Ward, Zach Parise, Shea Weber, Michael Frolik and Peter Doboer's positive effect on Florida's defensive responsibility. But I would also then have to tell you how I missed the Hitchcock effect on Steve Mason and how I overrated the Canadiens and Carey Price. Until I park a Delorean in my driveway on a fulltime basis I will give you my opinion based on the information available at the time. I will also try to forecast common sense scenario's that could give you a possible edge (ie. Tuukka Rask). I was wrong about Boston investing in Thomas, but I stand by the logic. In the worst case scenario you landed Rask for your keeper league team.
My first profile will involve my beloved Montreal Canadiens and will be posted on Eyes on the Prize this week. The profiles will follow fast and furious over the next 5 weeks. The profiles include the top ten fantasy options on each team as well as the top five fantasy prospects. I am sure there will be some Kris Versteeg's who slip through the cracks, but the majority of the players I have left off are unlikely to make a huge impact in 2010.
For those who don't understand the profiles, here is a breakdown. See you on the other side.
The first section of the fantasy preview is pretty self explanatory. It includes the profile picture, player number, name, team and position.I have provided last season's relevant fantasy statistics and projected out this season's statistics. (see above as to how I derived this magical projection). If the projection bar is red, it indicates that Kreskin, Carnac and Biff Tannen forsee a reduction in next seasons production. If the bar is green, then the profiled player is in for an increase in value, blue indicates static production.
This section tracks a players rotisserie impact (as seen in my dobber hockey rankings). Six categories are represented. A red square indicates if the profiled player can surpass the indicated value. This profile shows Mike Cammalleri as a 4 category stud. He will surpass 30 goals, 40 assists, 30 PP points and 250 shots on goal. The chart suggests he will be short of a +10 and 85 PIMs. If you are in a rotisserie league, this tool is invaluable.
This section highlights the profiled players PPG production during each quarter. The 1st quarter represents game 1-20, then 21-40, followed by 41-61 and 62-82. For Cammalleri it shows that his production was slowed while he adapted to his new surroundings and peaked during February.
The final section of the profile charts the individual players production over the last 5 seasons. When viewing numbers alone you cannot see hot streaks or plateau's in production, but in graph form it is instantly identifiable. I added an 80 pt pace to see how far a player was from PPG production.Instead of relying solely on numbers and production and nonsensical comparables, I try to evaluate each individual on their own merits. When I see production fluctuations I then dive into why this may have occurred. Opportunity due to injury? Linemates? Ice time? I then attempt to assess whether or not the production is sustainable or not based upon their history.
Simple common sense.
