2009 Ottawa Senators Fantasy Preview

Nobody was more devastated with the Senators decline than me. How am I supposed to live without playoff games where a half dressed man dons a Spartan helmet that doesn't fit, and does an Ultimate Warrior impersonation? If they make the playoffs this year, can the Sens dress up Daniel Alfreddson in a Hot Rod t-shirt and have him hit an Ovechkin impersonator with a coconut and smush a banana in his face?

The Senators have plenty of question marks entering 2010 and in order for me to see more of this glorious unintentional comedy, these questions will all need to be answered postively. If they do, you can look at this preview and laugh maniacally like Jason Spezza.

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With only a small sampling of NHL experience to assess, I looked at Clouston's previous experience. There doesn't seem to exist any pattern of defensive or offensive genius. During his WHL stint, he led the Kootenay Ice to a best defensive record, but also offset that when his team led the league in goals. His teams for the most part were defensively responsible, but he struggled to maintain that defensive success when he went to the AHL. During his brief NHL audition he managed to improve the GAA marginally, but increased the goal scoring by over 3/4 of a goal per game. Auld's numbers improved, Elliott's regressed. Will Clouston dramatically affect his fantasy players? Seems unlikely, which means that Leclaire and Elliott will not likely be sheltered from their inadequacies.

Jason Spezza endured the worst season of his pro career staggering to a 73 pt campaign. After three consecutive seasons where he approached 100 pts, Spezza suffered from inconsistency and a lack of focus and defensive commitment. It is concerning that Spezza still has not grasped the importance of defensive commitment at the age of 26. Fortunately, that is unlikely to affect his fantasy potential. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts to life without Heatley, I expect a return to the 80-90 pt range and pray I never have to hear him laugh again.

Was last season an aberration, or the beginning of the decline for the 36 year old? Daniel Alfreddson has been one of the most consistent fantasy players of the last decade, only registering less than 70 pts once since 99-00 (during that season he produced 59 pts in 57 games). Alfreddson still possesses a dangerous offensive arsenal, but age and a nagging back injury that affected his production last year are definite red flags. With such a complete game and a coach who is responsible defensively, could he find himself deployed in a transition role? Alfreddson may have one great season left in him, but I don't like those question marks and would not waste an early pick on him. Mid-late rounds before I would even ponder making the reach.

The only consistency in Alex Kovalev's career is his inconsistency. Kovalev is so talented that in a contract year he decided to take 2 months off and add some zeroes to his contract over his last 10 games. Over those 10 games he had 17 points, a total it took him 2 and a half months to produce between Jan 10 and March 21st. 65 pts in 78 games is not as disgraceful as 48 pts in 68 games. The good thing for fantasy owners, he is in an up year and will likely be motivated because of the Canadiens decision to move on. He is a Dirk Diggler for me, something I talked about in February here. Take a pass, the risk is just not worth the reward.

Michalek enters the 2010 campaign with plenty of pressure as he fills the big skates left behind by Dany Heatley. How will he produce outside of San Jose where he had developed strong chemistry with linemates Ryan Clowe and Joe Pavelski? If handed top minutes with Spezza and Alfreddson, will he finally breakout and bypass the 30-goal mark? Could he find himself in a position to compliment a determined Alex Kovalev? Michalek has been somewhat enigmatic, as he fails to capitalize on his unique blend of size and speed to wade into traffic. Playing on the perimeter with players like Spezza and Kovalev will lead to a further plateau in his production. Enigma, perimeter, predictable are not the words you seek when scouting fantasy players. To many red flags to make a significant investment for me.

With 19 pts in his first 25 games (1 assist in each of his first 8 games), Filip Kuba rode that monster start to a career year in 2009. He struggled to produce after December finishing with only 21 points over his final 45 games. Kuba is ideally used as a second pairing defenseman, as he lacks the skillset of an elite defensive quarterback, but with Karlsson and Lee still years away and Campoli still struggling with consistency Kuba is a lock for big minutes again. You may be able to squeeze another productive season out of him, but I wouldn't count on it. A Late round gamble at best.

Pascal Leclaire, saviour? Unlikely. Will he make Sens fans forget Patrick Lalime? No. Leclaire is inconsistent, injury prone and over 11 seasons has rarely out performed his backups, those are not the characteristics of a franchise goaltender (for more, click here). At 27 years old, Leclaire is no longer a young goaltender and what you see is likely all you will ever get. He screams system goaltender, and even if Cory Clouston can shore up the defensive end and deflate the Ottawa goaltenders numbers, don't expect Leclaire to significantly outdistance Brian Elliott in 2010.

Brian Elliott got plenty of fantasy love upon his arrival last season and at 16-8-3, it is understandable. I can't shake the fact that he didn't really outplay Alex Bald. Outside of his win total, Ellott trailed Lex Luthor significantly in GAA and SV%. Am I underrating Bald? It is possible. Is he that inferior to the saviour Leclaire? Outside of one great season with the Jackets, how has Leclaire outperformed the former Sens backup?

Perception is driving the "Leclaire is a star" bandwagon. The same type of hyperbole that fueled the Chris Osgood is a Hall of Famer nonsense last spring. Elliott is a solid goaltender and if given A. Leclaire's injury history and B. an opportunity, he may be in line for a lot more starts than people think. I still don't believe that the Sens have solved their goaltender issues.

The Sens will look to give Campoli a shot to run the offense after investing a first round selection in him. Campoli does possess the offensive tools to replace Kuba, but with his defensive inconsistencies and his questionable instincts to attack recklessly at even strength, Campoli remains a defensive liability, he is still a work in progress. With his skating ability, slapshot and ability to quarterback the powerplay, he has the ability to top 40 pts in 2010.

Replaced by Cheechoo 2.0 (Devin Setoguchi, a younger more efficient model) in San Jose, Jonathan Cheechoo will be given every opportunity for a fresh start in Ottawa. Although injuries have plagued him, Cheechoo's fall from grace is unprecedented. After winning the Rocket Richard trophy in 2006, the Cheechoo train has derailed. If placed with Jason Spezza and brought back to life on the 1st line could he produce again? Sure, anything is possible in a world where unoriginal crap like the Black Eyed Peas can set a record for the longest successive No. 1 chart run. Let's just say "I Gotta Feeling" it's not going to happen.

Nick Foligno finally began to show his promise when handed increased responsibility by mid-season replacement Cory Clouston. With 19 pts in his final 34 games, Foligno at 21 is entering a contract year and has showed signs of a breakout moving forward. With a tenacious work ethic, two-way sensibilities, the desire to go to the dirty areas on the ice and strong finishing ability, the only thing holding him back is his bland helmet and straight nose. Hand him a 1981 Winn Well helmet, break his nose and 40 goals will be in his not to distant future. Follow him closely on the waiver wire.

The Sens have never recovered from the departure of Zdeno Chara and the rapid decomposition of the corpse formerly known as Wade Redden. There are recruits on the way Sens Army. With Karlsson, Lee and Wiercioch on the horizon, the Sens can ascend to the playoffs and another shot at losing to the Maple Leafs.

Karlsson rose to prominence during the World Juniors when he lead all defensemen in scoring and was named the top defender in the tournament, outshining Mikael Backlund, Victor Hedman and Oscar Moller. If his name were spelled Carlsson, McGuire would have labeled him a "Monster". With the Sens lacking a premier point man, Karlsson's mix of skill, vision and testicular fortitude should make him a fantasy star. With only Campoli and Kuba in his way, the path is laid out for a quick ascension. At only 5'11" and 170 lbs, Karlsson's biggest challenge will likely lie in the weight room.

Ilya Zubov is a speedster with a smooth stride, who excels in traffic and possesses a potent release. Zubov distributes the puck well and has the potential to be a number one center. He is not a defensive liability, and his versatility allows him to play all three forward positions. After a solid North American debut in 2008, he flashed his future potential with Binghamton in 2009 (52 pts in 63 games), earning a cup of coffee with the Sens. Still a couple of years away, but a player who has solid fantasy potential.

Lee possesses good size and superb skating skills. An offensive defenseman with solid defensive awareness, Lee lacks the elite quarterback skills of Karlsson, but shows signs of providing a strong compliment to him in the future. His reliability, calm demeanor, and poise with the puck allow for smart decisions in transition. Lee lacks a mean streak and fails to engage physically, but is capable of overcoming those flaws with smart positioning and solid gap control. A strong fantasy option with limited upside.

Wiercioch has a nice blend of size and skill and made great strides in his freshman campaign. Wiercioch led NCAA rookie blueliners with 12 goals and was named to the WCHA All-Rookie team, as well as a second team all-star birth. A smart, mobile puck moving defenseman who benefits from a well-rounded defensive awareness, Wiercioch needs to add some size and strength to his 6'5" 195 lb frame to become effective at the NHL level. The Sens have problems on the blueline now, but have made strides to rectify that problem in the near future.

Regin enjoyed a solid debut with the Binghamton Senators finishing 5-points off the scoring lead (despite missing 12 games due to shoulder/concussion issues) and was named "the best defensive forward on the Sens". Regin sees the ice well and his calm demeanor bodes well for a future as a playmaker. He has a "pass first" mentality, but it does not hinder his ability to score goals. With his strong work ethic and skill level he is only added strength away from the NHL.

Pre-Season Production

Does Viktor Stalberg, translate to Brian Savage in English? Does pre-season success amount to regular season success? Does the pre-season, a time when split squads and players working themselves into shape offer a glimpse of future success? Do the players who are having success have another gear when the effort intensifies? Does pre-season mean shit?

I try to equate the pre-season to a sprint. In the preliminary sprints at the Olympics, Usain Bolt is only concerned with working on technique and being in the top three. If a white sprinter finishes within .05 of his time, does that make him the equal to Bolt? Or does it mean he is busting his ass to just make the next round, while Bolt is figuring out what dance to use after he wins the Gold? Every pre-season there are players who excite the fantasy world, only to disappear quicker than Brian Savage in November. I have learned to never place stock in results from games that do not count. For every Viktor Stalberg who is killing himself to make the team, there exists a Keith Tkachuk who shows up to camp looking like K-Fed.

Last season Dan Ellis' fantasy stock dropped faster than Paris Hilton on a first date, looking at his pre-season stats, is he back to challenge Pekka Rinne? Is he this seasons Michael Leighton? Or is this a sign of things to come after he had a great 2007 pre-season? Is Mike Comrie going to have a career year, or is he the 2009 version of Lee Stempniak?

The fantasy community has a tendency to develop tunnel vision and forget anything that happened weeks before. Does anybody remember who had a monster pre-season in 2008? 2007? If you joined Mr. Peabody and Sherman on a trip to your 2008 Fantasy draft, would you remember criticizing the guy who drafted Cam Ward because Janet Eagleson said Leighton won the "Aldege "Baz" Bastien" award and had a monster pre-season. Or has that been stricken from your memory like every Pearl Jam album released since 1998?

Let's enter the WABAC machine and look at pre-seasons gone by.

Looking at the top 14 scorers in 2008, only four names would have jumped out at me last October. McDonald is a fairly proven scorer, so although the point total is outrageous, it is mainly a product of a couple of hot games. Even though he is underrated, I ignored it. All the rest were either proven NHL performers (Ovechkin), or young players who had shown their potential in NHL competition (Perry, Kostitsyn, Toews) and were known fantasy commodities.

That left Stempniak, Grabovski and Voracek. One failed sleeper from 2007, one mature NHL prospect who had exploded in the second half of the AHL season and one raw rookie.

Lee Stempniak was an interesting name because of his sleeper buzz entering 2007, and although he regressed in 2008, with 12 points in 5 games he had gained plenty of buzz as a breakout guy at the age of 25. Did he carry the pre-season hype into the regular season? Actually he did. Through 14 games he had 13 points, but strangely the fantasy crystal balls did not predict his trade to the Maple Leafs, injuries to Kariya and McDonald and his collapse from fantasy relevance.

Mikhail Grabovski had been a different story. He was a known commodity to Montreal fans because of a couple of highlight moments in his NHL stints, as well as exploding in Hamilton late in 2008. Placed in a situation where he would be rewarded with 1st line minutes, Grabovski had legit sleeper buzz and with 8 pts in eight games he was likely drafted higher than he should have been. He had a strong rookie campaign, but nothing matching his pre-season production. He made a bigger impact through his Yahoo profile pic as it qualified him to appear on the website www.menwholooklikeoldlesbians.com.

Jakub Voracek is one of the Blue Jackets prize rookies and had plenty of Calder buzz with 8 pts in seven pre-season games. After a strong start (10 pts in 13 games), Voracek faded finishing with 38 pts in 80 games as Ken Hitchcock attempted to mould him into a complete player.

Goaltenders are not immune to this buzz either.

Out of the top ten goaltender's during the 2008 pre-season, TWO had strong fantasy seasons and because of Luongo's injury, only Backstrom approached his pre-season projections.

Price regressed as most rookie netminders do. Brodeur suffered a shocking injury that allowed career sieve Scott Clemmensen to benefit from the trap and Osgood played like Chris Osgood. Red Flags indeed.

But it would be silly to look at only last year to judge pre-season buzz. So I took a look at 2007 as well.

Derek Roy had his breakthrough in 2006-07 and his pre-season was an indicator of things to come as he broke through with 81 pts in 78 games. The rest of the highlighted players? Not so much.

Chris Connor put up 18 pts over 60 games during the next two seasons and one wonders if at 5'8" and 180 lbs, if the 25 year old will ever live up to his great 5 game burst. Foligno, Holmstrom and Samuelsson did not maintain anything resembling this pace and Pavelski had a minor breakthrough last season with 59 pts in 80 games.

There were some interesting names that appeared among the goaltenders.

Throw out Frank Doyle and three names standout. Dan Ellis had a strong pre-season and did provide the fantasy world with a breakout season. It resulted in a 4th place finish among all fantasy goaltenders with 30+ starts. Forget the fact that he followed that up with a colossal collapse, an owner who used his pre-season numbers as a reason to select him was rewarded.

Craig Anderson and Jonas Hiller provided a glimpse of what was to come not in 2008, but 2009. In a keeper league that provides value. In a year-to-year? It was about as useful as a Dane Cook CD.

Out of the 21 players over the last two seasons who enjoyed huge pre-seasons, TWO went on to fantasy success during that same campaign (only one was totally unexpected as Roy was a rising player who had already broken out) and TWO foreshadowed success in future seasons.

What does that tell me? It tells me that I am playing the odds (1 of 21) and I am going to ignore Viktor Stalberg, Mike Comrie, Mike Fisher, Curtis Glencross, Patric Hornqvist and Sergei Shirikov for any significant 2010 impact.

At only 23, Stalberg is not to be ignored moving forward, but he is unlikely to produce like he has during the 2009 pre-season. Use the pre-season in conjunction with previous pro/college production to make your decisions, do not base it on 5-6 meaningless games. If you have followed a player for 3-4 years and are watching him blossom before your eyes, jump on him. If you are making the decision based on 4 pre-season games and Pierre McGuire yelling as hard as he can on your screen, it is probably best to pass.

2009 Vancouver Canucks Fantasy Preview

The Canucks avoided disaster in the off-season by retaining the rights to the Sedin twins and locking up the franchise, Roberto Luongo. Outside of signing Andrew Raycroft, essentially forcing Luongo to play all 82 games, the Canucks had a perfect summer.

Vancouver suffered a disappointing end to the playoffs, and have plenty of motivation entering 2010. With a driven Luongo, a surplus of offensive talent on the farm, and a major trading chip in Cory Schneider, the Canucks are well positioned for a Cup run in the very near future.

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Alain Vigneault's defensive impact is understated because of the shadow cast by Roberto Luongo, but he also produced a top 10 defensive team on a hopeless Montreal Canadiens team in 2000. The Canucks are defensively responsible and his style produces benefits for Luongo, benefits that were reaped by 2004 AHL MVP Jason Labarbera who produced solid numbers as Luongo's replacement in 2009. Offensively, Vigneault has produced a top 5 offense in Montreal with players like Damphousse, Recchi and Koivu, as well as allowing the Sedin's some freedom during his 3 seasons in Vancouver. His style will never be confused with Pat Quinn's offensive aggression, but he will not stifle offensive creativity like Pat Burns.

After dominating the early part of the season Roberto Luongo suffered a groin injury, which cost him almost two months. He struggled upon his return, but exploded in February registering a 22-6-2 record with a 2.19 GAA and a .922 SV% to close out the season and lay claim to the best goaltender in the NHL. He occupies the top tier of fantasy goaltenders, a player totally unreliant on a system to produce great numbers. Luongo is a keeper owners dream and when placed in the insulation of a defensive system Luongo morphs into a fantasy cornerstone. I was ready to place him in his own tier until he imploded during a very winnable series against the Blackhawks, when he coughed up a softie with 2 minutes left in game 4 leading 2-1. As he finished his playoff collapse, I elevated Cam Ward and Ryan Miller to his level. With the other two lacking a strong system, Luongo is the consensus number one entering 2010. Another monster season awaits, and with backup Andrew Raycroft's primary focus being to model the latest Reebok hats and acting as the team strainer, Luongo will get 70+ starts.

The Sedin's are the greatest fantasy twins since CJ Parker jogged ever so slowly across the beaches of Malibu in the early 90s. Their durability and consistency is remarkable, as neither of them has had to deal without the other for more than a couple games at a time during their NHL careers. Their familiarity and anticipation is a large part of their success in consistently producing 80 pt seasons. Daniel led the Canucks for the 3rd consecutive season in goals scored and is the finisher and more complete fantasy weapon; he is one Grabovskiesque temper tantrum from six-category production. Henrik possesses more creativity, vision and has great agility, which allows him to create space for himself, and has allowed him to produce 280 assists over the last 5 seasons, good for 4th in the NHL. Neither is aggressive, but Henrik plays a more passive game and tends to disappear as the space decreases. I am curious to see how they would operate on their own, but if they remain paired they will continue to produce between 75-85 points annually.

Bieksa recovered from an injury plagued 2008 to post 40+ points as well as scratch the 100 PIM mark. He has a well-rounded game for fantasy, producing big numbers in 4 of the 6 relevant categories. Bieksa is not a strong puck mover and has created the majority of his damage with a strong point shot on the powerplay. He blew hot and cold last season and is in for a tough adjustment with partner Mattias Ohlund in Tampa mentoring Victor Hedman. With Edler emerging to feed his point shot and his tendency to take lazy penalties his rotisserie production should plateau at worst.

With the emergence of Alexander Edler in 2009, it made the decision to allow veteran Mattias Ohlund to walk easier. He enjoyed a breakout campaign and was able to raise his level in the playoffs with 8 pts in 10 games. Edler has great puck skills and vision and relies on precision and anticipation to effectively quarterback the powerplay. He likes to aggressively pinch on the weak side adding another element to his burgeoning offensive skillset. As he figures out how to maximize his size advantage he will threaten the second tier of fantasy defensemen.

Ryan Kesler enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2009 due to a monster second half (17G, 22A in 41 games) that contributed to a production jump from 37 to 59 points. Was the jump in scoring due to the return of Mats Sundin from his lifewalk? Sundin was involved in 25 of Kesler's 39 second half points, but 12 of those points were on the PP. His even strength production did not witness a jump due to Sundin alone. Kesler is a large speedy forward who works relentlessly and is able to dominate along the boards. His defensive commitment is unmatched as witnessed by his Selke nomination and he is a takeaway machine, finishing 8th in the league in takeaways. He is a good bet for a further jump in scoring in 2010.

Alexandre Burrows was on his way to another nondescript season (38pt pace) when he was paired with the Sedin twins. He made the most of the opportunity as the move sparked him to finish the season with 26 points (15G, 11A) in his final 27 games (20 points assisted by the Sedin's). Burrows lacks explosiveness and generates most of his offense through tenacious work and simple intelligent puck movement. If paired with the Sedin's again, he should be able to match his breakout season, but if not he will revert to his previous form. Always be wary of somebody whose production spikes from the Rob Brown effect.

Mikael Samuelsson is receiving a lot of pre-season buzz as a fantasy dark horse, but most of that buzz is attributable to his nationality and the possibility that he may play with the Sedin's in 2009. So a forward who has struggled to maintain focus, energy, health and is earmarked for success based on the production of others? These are the main traits of a Dirk Diggler All-Star, a player I would not touch with a ten-foot pole, play the odds and take a pass.

At this point in his career Mathieu Schneider is best utilized as a powerplay specialist. He showed down the stretch in Montreal that he could still command a powerplay, but that he struggles defensively with top pairing minutes. Fortunately in Vancouver he can be utilized in this role and with the importance of scoring from the blueline in fantasy, Schneider is still a solid rotisserie player. A low risk, high reward player who is probably flying under the radar due to his late signing.

Stop me if you have heard this before. Pavol Demitra has a strong array of offensive skills and has the ability to find the gaps in the defensive coverage's. When given the opportunity, Demitra's heavy shot makes him a deadly finisher. When motivated and healthy, Demitra is an elite player and possesses a huge fantasy upside. Unless you have a strong gag reflex, stay away from this Dirk Diggler All-Star.

The Canucks have an embarrassment of riches on their farm assuring them of not only future NHL success, but also fantasy success. With impact players Cody Hodgson, Cory Schneider and Jordan Schroeder, as well as upside player in Grabner and Shirikov, the Canucks have recovered nicely from the tragic loss of Luc Bourdon.

Cody Hodgson enjoyed a monster 2009 winning the CHL Player of the Year, as well as leading the scoring in the World Junior Championships (16 pts in 6 games). Hodgson is a dangerous offensive threat because of his ability to create passing and shooting lanes for himself. With his dual ability to finish and create for others, his fantasy future is bright. What he lacks in speed he makes up in guile and dedication. He will start the season in Vancouver and is one of the favourites for the Calder trophy.

Schneider is one of the best goaltending prospects in the NHL, but as long as he remains in the shadow of Luongo he will struggle to make a fantasy impact. Although he dominated the AHL (28-10-1, 2.04 GAA and a .928 SV%), he failed to take advantage of Luongo's injury as he struggled to make a significant impact during his 8 game call-up. He possesses all the tools of an elite butterfly goaltender and will have to continue to work on his rebound control and puck tracking in order to compensate for the increased speed level awaiting him at the next level. Has all the makings of a future number one, the question that remains, will it be in Vancouver?

Schroeder's stock plummeted on draft day because of concerns about his size (5'9", 180 lbs), he may lack size, but he is compact and he makes up for it with elite offensive skills. Often compared to Brian Gionta, Schroeder ripped up the NCAA as an 18 year old and has tremendous instincts that when coupled with his skating ability, terrific hands and elite playmaking assure him of future NHL success.

One of the faster skaters in the AHL, Grabner utilizes his speed to create scoring opportunities. One of the things that make him unique is his ability to create and finish while maintaining top speed. He is very raw and will not breakthrough until he increases his strength and shows any sort of commitment to the defensive aspect of the game. He showed glimpses of what is to come and answered the critics who questioned his willingness to pay the price by leading the Manitoba Moose with 10 playoff goals and 17 points in 20 games. He has a little bit of Diggler in his game, but I am taking a wait and see approach in regards to that.

Another undersized forward (5'10", 176 lbs), Shirokov does not possess dynamic offensive skills, but has shown considerable growth in the KHL with CSKA Moscow leading them in scoring. He has the ability to develop into a strong offensive player and will ascend to the NHL level when he learns how to backcheck.

2009 Calgary Flames Fantasy Preview

The Flames made a major splash in the offseason adding a 30+min workhouse to their defense corp and a familiar name to the coaching staff. The biggest beneficiary of the off-season moves? Mikka Kiprusoff owners. With a coach who has defense, commitment and accountability high on his priority list, and three of the best young defensemen in the game patroling the blueline, the Flames got even tougher to play against (if that was possible).

Welcome back to the fantasy elite Mikka Kiprusoff.

Looking at Brent Sutter's defensive record at the NHL level is impressive, but when you factor in his success at the CHL level it is very likely that Kiprusoff vaults back to the elite fantasy goaltenders in the league in 2010. Sutter led the Red Deer Rebels to three seasons as the best defensive team in the WHL as well as a 3rd place finish during his 7-year tenure. Add in the trio of Dion Phaneuf, Robyn Regehr and Jay Bouwmeester and it will be a shock if the Flames do not morph back into a Sutter style team. Also, under Sutter, Scott Clemmensen resembled an NHL goaltender for 40+ games.

Like Broduer in New Jersey, the system will mask Kiprusoff's precipitous decline. So, if you like fluff pieces about hard work and inspiring comebacks, then prepare yourself for TSN putting together some BS in regards to the Kipper's rebirth over the next 3 months. As for the offense, Parise was not slowed by Sutter's system, so I see no need for concern for Iginla.

Jarome Iginla is one of the elite fantasy wingers in the game, but although he is consistently great, his production varies. Over the last 5 seasons he has produced a 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100 pt pace, a rewarding, but frustrating player to own. Also, is he an 80+ PIM player or a 40 PIM player? At 32, he is showing signs of the tail end of his prime as his production has dropped over the last 2 seasons. And how will he respond to the absence of Mike Cammalari, a player who contributed to 56 of his 89 points? Iginla is still an elite fantasy player, if you are in a keeper league, even though the time to deal him was last season, coming off an 89 pt campaign he should still bring a strong return.

Mr. Kim Bauer looked like he was on his way to fantasy stardom after his 60 pt 2008 campaign, but suffered a regression dropping 13 pts and suffering defensive inconsistencies. Rumoured hip and back problems could have been responsible, but even though he regressed statistically, he continues to tease with his limitless offensive potential. Phaneuf has remarkable mobility and passing ability for a man his size and possesses a booming shot that is a lethal PP weapon. I expect Phaneuf to refocus with the hiring of Brent Sutter and simplify his game by focusing on structure and sacrificing for the team dynamic, and with it return to the 60 pt, PIM machine that dominated two seasons ago.

Using the Puck Prospectus VUKOTA system (couldn't they have named a system of scoring the Gretzky system? Not after a goon who scored 46 points in 574 NHL games?) to project Kiprusoff's 2010 season, I would have to find a goaltender who had a terrible debut season, then followed it up with a Vezina level campaign, then five straight declining seasons that saw his SV% drop from .933 - .923 - .917 - .906 - .903 AND a GAA rise from 1.70 - 2.07 - 2.46 - 2.69 - 2.84. Upon finding this type of comparable career regression, I will then tell you the high end of his projection and the low end based on two players who have zero variables in common with Mikka Kiprusoff. Does this make any sense? How would this projection have any relevance to the variables that Kiprusoff will encounter this season? Will any of these comparables have the benefit of one of the best defensive coaches in the game? Stats lie; Tim Thomas and Scott Clemmensen are proof. So although the stats say that Kipper is getting worse, the appointment of Brent Sutter and the acquisition of Jay Bouwmeester say otherwise. Everything is set up for Kiprusoff having a monster year.

After a Peter North like explosion on arrival in Calgary (8G in 6 games), Jokinen hit the wall producing only 5 assists in his final 12 games and registered a -6, seemingly dragging Jarome Iginla down with him (4G, 4A, -5 in 12 games). Not exactly the production that Pierre McGuire screamed we would see on deadline day. Jokinen possesses all the tools of an elite offensive center, but has suffered a career free-fall over the last couple of seasons. With a reputation as defensively apathetic and a locker room cancer, it will be interesting to see how Iginla and the Sutter work ethic rub off on him. With those red flags in place, I would shy away from him in the first half of a draft, but if he is around in the later rounds, then I would look past the flags and hope for a rebound.

As I watch Jay Bouwmeester mature, he leaves me constantly wondering if he has reached his offensive ceiling? He has the size, skating ability and can jumpstart the transition game, but he seems to lack the inherent offensive instincts to join the fantasy elite. Most of his fantasy damage is inflicted with a powerful shot which is reflected by his 9 PP goals. Judging by his chart, his production has seemed to plateau over the last 4 years, but in Calgary he will now have an elite PP partner to work with. With both sharing the ability to feed and release, his numbers may spike in 2010. The safe bet is 50 points, but with Iginla, Phaneuf and Jokinen the possibility exists for some monster PP production in Calgary.

Through 40 games Daymond Langkow was on his way to another 70 pt campaign (15G, 20A), before he suffered a mid-season slump. A broken hand in February leant to his woes as it caused him to miss 9 games. Upon his return he never regained his early season form as his PP production dried up and he registered only 7 pts in his last 17 games. Langkow is not a flashy offensive talent, but he is well rounded and is tailor made 2nd line center for a Sutter coached team. With a return to health, expect a return to the 60 pt range in 2010.

Rene Bourque registered on my radar early last season when he made an appearance at number 27 in my top 50 Roto Rankings for October. For a value pick, Bourque provided major production in 4 of 5 categories registering a career high 21 goals in only 58 games. More impressive was that 20 of his 21 goals were registered at even strength as he only averaged 1:00 per game on the PP. I don't expect him to find anymore powerplay minutes in 2010 and counting on another 20+ goals at even strength is probably unrealistic. If he can produce 50 pts, he has underrated rotisserie value.

After a strong start in 2009 that saw Boyd score 6 goals in his first games, Boyd's progress was nullified by a late November shoulder injury. When he returned he struggled to regain his form and found his way into Mike Keenan's doghouse. Boyd had plenty of offensive success in junior and is a skilled playmaker with great vision. He is deceptively quick on his skates and as his strength increases, so will his ability to battle and create in traffic. With his ability to adapt to the wing and only names like Nigel Dawes and David Moss ahead of him on the depth chart, a clean slate with Brent Sutter could see him placed on a scoring line. If he does see time on the top two lines, with his offensive tools, a 50+ point breakout is possible.

Although Mikael Backlund is not pegged for a spot with the Flames in 2010, I always to prefer to shoot for the moon in the late rounds. Why waste a late round pick on Craig Conroy, David Moss, Nigel Dawes or Curtis Glencross who have limited offensive upside? They are essentially future drops. I prefer to try and catch lightning in a bottle and draft players with huge upside. Backlund is a premier play maker with soft hands around the goal and his vision and playmaking ability mark him as a very special player in the future. Add in defensive awareness and he could be in the NHL ahead of schedule. If he doesn't make the NHL after a couple of weeks you drop him and await his return. If he does make the NHL and somehow finds himself on a scoring line, you just stole a possible front line player in the late rounds.

The Flames are not deep in fantasy talent, but the farm is not barren as the Flames possess two elite level prospects in Leland Irving and Mikael Backlund. Both are pegged for Quad City, but could make an impact if provided the opportunity.

Leland Irving enjoyed a strong professional debut in 2009. After a shaky start, Irving supplanted Matt Keetley as the starting goaltender in Quad City. Irving finished 4th in the AHL with a GAA of 2.23 and was 14th in wins with a 24-18-2 record. After March 1st, Irving went 12-6-1 with a 2.05 GAA and a .922 SV% as the Flames narrowly missed the playoffs. He is strong fundamentally, and efficiently neutralizes the lower half of the net with strong angles and butterfly play. His puck tracking is solid and his rebound control continues to improve. He seems NHL ready, but the Flames have no reason to rush him. Look for another year of seasoning in 2010, with an apprenticeship behind the $7M goaltender in 2011.

Greg Nemisz had a solid 2009 OHL season and enjoyed a strong Memorial Cup (1G, 6A in 7 games). Nemisz is a large power forward with strong instincts, soft hands and a hard accurate shot. He has the ability to drift to dead spots in the defensive coverage and took advantage of the deft passing game of Taylor Hall. This is where the profile takes a turn for the worse. Red flag ONE. Taylor Hall. Nemisz production before Hall, 34pts in 62 games. Since Hall's arrival in Windsor? 144 pts in 133 games. Red flag TWO. Skating stride has been referred to as lumbersome. Red flag THREE. Lacks aggression, struggles to stay involved and needs to bring more consistency. That is the trifecta of doom. I think I will pass.

T.J. Bodie broke out in his second full OHL season with Saginaw scoring 50 pts in 63 games. An aggressive puck moving defenseman, Bodie is a strong skater possessing an explosive burst and natural agility. He is dangerous as he can stretch the defense with precision passes and can also dictate the pace with his puck moving ability. Like all teenagers, he will not max his full NHL potential until he gains strength and shores up his defensive commitment, at 6'1" 173 lbs, that could be awhile.