Lie Like an Eagle - Week FIVE

This is usually the part of an article where I set up my point, I tease where I am going with my focus and I set up the reader towards accepting my final hypothesis. Twelfth grade english at it's apex!

A professional hockey writer will talk about an offensive lineman in football pissing his pants, or the Leafs practice habits or this week talk about headshots in hockey, how they have no place in the game and then finish up their prose with "now onto this weeks selections" followed by 12 uninspiring names and "oh yeah, back to the head shots thing".

What, no "Enough of the cheap shots, let's look at some cheap player acquisitions" or maybe "let's look at this weeks waiver wire acquisitions, they may impact your league like a Mike Richards shoulder". Jesus, I would have accepted "It is jarring that these players are still available".

Don't take time from your books about Maple Syrup to spend a couple hours researching your column or anything. It is much easier to watch the sports highlight shows, express your mock horror at Mike Richards making a Mike Richards type play and then sorting through the waiver wire and looking for injury replacements for 15 minutes. But then, she wouldn't be the Eagle and I wouldn't have anything to write about.

So instead we get this thoroughly researched gem.

"Alex Tanguay, LW, Tampa Bay (46-percent owned) – I tagged Tangs as a preseason sleeper and how’d he repay me? He slept his way through the first several weeks of the season. I should have paid closer attention – this dude is a classic Rip Van Winkle starter but he does make up for it over the rest of the season. Well, coach Rick Tocchett juggled lines this week and Thursday, Tangs skated with Steven Stamkos(notes) and Ryan Malone(notes). Was there chemistry? You bet your boots there was – enough to brand the experiment an early success. Scoop him up now if you need a left winger – he’s soft but talented, and a point-a-game is hard to resist."

Once again there is that "don't judge a player from one boxscore, don't judge a player by their linemates" mantra being totally ignored, but that isn't the embarrassing part. Rip Van Winkle starter?

Here are Tanguay's 10 game starts over the last 5 seasons.

2009 - 11 points in 10 games (6G, 5A)

2008 - 11 points in 10 games (2G, 9A)

2007 - 5 points in 10 games (2G, 3A)

2006 - 11 points in 10 games (2G, 9A)

2004 - 15 points in 10 games (4G, 11A)

I should have paid closer attention? No shit you should have paid closer attention. Can we make this her byline?

So just to clarify. She recommended Tanguay before the season, but it was her mistake because she didn't pay any attention to his previous starts. Now she is recommending him because she did look at his statistics and has somehow come to the conclusion that he comes out of the gate in his sleep. Yet the statistics say the exact opposite. So either she is A. lying about her research or B. just really stupid. I will leave that up to you to decide.

Keep up the good work Janet.

Here are her week five selections. (my comments in red.)

Adrian Aucoin D, Phoenix (52% owned)

Eagleson upside: Old but is smart. He is among the league leaders now, but he will wear down. But he can help you now. Correct me if I am wrong, doesn't the Eagle love to promote selling high? If Aucoin who has produced more than 35 points in his career the grand total of ONCE sticks to his career pattern, doesn't that mean he will register no more than 28 points in his next 70 games? This will help me how?

Zach Bogosian D, Atlanta (63%)

Eagleson upside: Great potential, Shea Weber, yawn. Come on, really? 63% owned. When is she going to start list off 80%+ owned players. If you don't know who Zach Bogosian is, stop playing fantasy hockey because you will never win unless you enter a league run from the head trauma unit.

David Clarkson RW, New Jersey (38%)

Eagleson upside: 17 goals last season, on pace for a career high, big PIMS, will not maintain pace. Sell high?

BJ Crombeen RW, St. Louis (3%)

Eagleson upside: Pick him up because he has a lot of PIMs. Yeah, I will get right on that one.

Shawn Horcoff C, Edmonton (34%)

Eagleson upside: Something about Salmon under a seat of your car. I am going to mail this one in like she did this whole article. That stench from your monitor isn't the "insert really smelly reference here". Nope, it was the scent of "insert any Janet Eagleson article here".

Phil Kessel RW, Toronto (79%)

Eagleson upside:Blah blah blah blah. I was kidding 5 paragraphs ago when I asked "when is she going to start listing off 80% owned players". Go check your waiver wires folks, Kessel will not be there.

Filip Kuba D, Ottawa (21%)

Eagleson upside: Overrated, can't keep it up, trade him now. Why is Aucoin a good pickup for the season, but Kuba obvious tradebait? How does she make these determinations?

David Perron LW, St. Louis (31%)

Eagleson upside: Pegged for 60 pts, slow start, has been hot for 3 games. I love David Perron.

Andrew Raycroft G, Vancouver (9%)

Eagleson upside: Better than he was in Toronto, will post solid numbers, look at what he did in one game. How many times is she going to contradict her don't judge a player by one boxscore advice? If Vancouver is so stingy, why has Luongo blown leaks constantly this season? Plus, IT IS ANDREW "F@%KEN RAYCROFT!! How well did LaBarbera fare last season? Do we need to rehash that nonsense? I am still in shock that she didn't drop a "He was the 2004 Calder trophy winner, nuff said" lines. Brutal! Maybe you should write a book about nature hikes or something. Umm, nevermind.

Steve Sullivan LW, Nashville (9%)

Eagleson upside: Too good offensively to continue to slump, he is going to get hot because he had 2 points in a game the other day. Don't judge a player off one boxscore.

Alex Tanguay LW, Tampa Bay (46%)

Eagleson upside: See above.

Antoine Vermette C, Columbus (13%)

Eagleson upside: recommends him every year. Every year he is a disappointment. Lots of talent around him. So let me get this straight, you are telling me that you recommend a guy EVERY season who disappoints EVERY season. I don't think you need to clarify that, we already know you suck.

Crunching data

I know it looks like I have been neglecting my site over the last couple of weeks, but nothing could be further from the truth. I have been compiling and crunching data on a nightly basis and unfortunately it has not enabled me to write very much. Although my production on my site may take a hit in the present, I believe the payoff will be huge in the future.

I will try to update as much as possible while continuing to write for Eyes on the Prize, Dobber and goaliepost, as well as continuing to make fun of the Eagle.

Fantasysense cheatsheet FREE PDF online

To download, click here

2009 NHL Fantasysense Previews

1. Montreal Canadiens - Habs Eyes on the Prize - Aug 24, 2009

2. Toronto Maple Leafs - Pension Plan Puppets - Aug 31, 2009

3. Buffalo Sabres - Die By The Blade - Sept 1, 2009

4. Carolina Hurricanes - Canes Country - Sept 2, 2009

5. Minnesota Wild - Hockey Wilderness - Sept 3, 2009

6. Boston Bruins - Stanley Cup of Chowder - Sept 9, 2009

7. Chicago Blackhawks - Second City Hockey - Sept 11, 2009

8. Pittsburgh Penguins - Pensburgh - Sept 14, 2009


9. Columbus Blue Jackets - The Cannon - Sept 14, 2009



10. Edmonton Oilers - Sept 16, 2009

11. Nashville Predators - On the Forecheck - Sept 18, 2009



12. Vancouver Canucks - Sept 22, 2009



13. Calgary Flames - Sept 22, 2009



14. Ottawa Senators - Sept 30, 2009



15. Philadelphia Flyers - Oct 6, 2009



16. Florida Panthers - Oct 8, 2009



17. Winnipeg Jets - Oct 21, 2009

It looks like I pulled a Mike Tyson on the 30 previews in 30 days, as I bit off more than I could chew.

I am still working diligently every night to provide the same quality for every preview. My biggest mistake was not factoring in the 2010 Vancouver Olympics which moved the schedule up 10 days to Oct. 1st.

I will complete all 30 through the first month of the season. I plan to continue to write for dobber, goaliepost and Eyes on the Prize as well as some new and old features. Be patient, as right now I am a lone wolf, searching for members for my wolfpack.

Look for the Flames and Canucks over the next 3 days, followed by a lull as I am away for a wedding. For all those returning, welcome back. For all those who are new, welcome, I hope you stick around.

2009 Winnipeg Jets Fantasy Preview

After a summer of court room drama and all the signs pointing to the Coyotes not being able to support an NHL team, I have decided to no longer refer to them as the Phoenix Coyotes. Since they left the hockey heartland and Balsillie's tireless quest to return them there, fantasysensehockey will now refer to them only as the Winnipeg Jets until they return to Canada.

For those who believed the myths and hyperbole presented by the media, click here. For those who just miss Dale Hawerchuk, Pokey Reddick and Morris Lukowich, click here.

Remove the outlier (2009) from Dave Tippett's resume and you have one of the most dominant defensive coaches in the NHL today. During his 6 seasons in Dallas, Tippett's team finished 6th or better five of the six years. The ultimate beneficiary was Marty Turco and his fantasy owners. With Tippett's late appointment in Winnipeg, Bryzgalov has not received a ton of fantasy love, but with Tippett at the helm, his stats are sure to plummet. The offense will not be hurt by Tippett's conservative style, as much as it will be by lack of NHL ready talent.

I have read numerous reports that he is not enthused about moving from Phoenix to Canada, no shit! Doan remains the only true Winnipeg Jet. He is your prototypical NHL power forward; he is physical as well as a strong skater who has deceptive puck handling ability and a strong shot. He also possesses the ability to dominate the cycle and create turnovers with his physical play. Doan has been a remarkably consistent fantasy performer registering 9 straight 20-goal seasons and a yearly lock for 60+ points, 60+ PIMs, 25 PPP, and 200+ shots since the lockout. He never seems to get the love on draft day, but he always produces.

I don't know if there was a happier player on the Jets that Wayne Gretzky decided not to return than Ilya Bryzgalov. Out of all the coaches I ranked in the pre-season, it should come as no surprise that the most prolific offensive player of all-time had no idea how to coach team defense. Gretzky finished last. In his second season in Arizona, Bryzgalov saw his GAA balloon by over half a goal and his SV% drop .015, but there remains light at the end of the rainbow. Dave Tippet's defensive record bodes well for a return to prominence for Bryzgalov, he may lack wins, but a return to 2.50 GAA and a .915 SV% is not out of the question.

A former Dirk Diggler All-Star, Jovanovski is one healthy season away from putting his injury plagued history in the rearview mirror. After playing only 154 games over three seasons, he has managed to play 162 over the last two. Jovanovski is only one year removed from a fantastic roto season in which he registered 51 pts (12G, 39A), 73 PIMs, 27 PPP and 240 shots. He has remained extremely streaky, as witnessed by his quarterly splits, but although flawed (I wouldn't touch him outside of a late reach or waiver wire move) he possesses a huge upside. You could do worse with a 4th or 5th defenseman.

AT 6'5", Hanzal is the Anti-Antropov. He is a big centerman that doesn't rely on his ankles to navigate around the ice; Hanzal is a strong skater with a long fluid stride. He has good hands and great puck handling skills. He has above average offensive instincts, but his progress continues to stall due to injuries. After an off-season rehabbing from back surgery, Hanzal suffered a shoulder injury in February and his offensive disappeared as he registered only 7 points (2G, 5A) in his final 20 games. Injuries make it hard to gauge his potential, but if he remains healthy in 2010 we should see a jump in production and get a better understanding of his future.

Mueller struggled in his sophomore campaign and it has been rumoured that his overconfidence lead him to poor preparation. This was further exacerbated by playing out of position at LW and a January concussion that affected his production in the second half (see his progression chart for the visual evidence). Mueller is deceptively efficient and throughout his career has demonstrated an ability to control play in the attacking zone through great vision, and superb puckhandling and passing ability. 2010 is an important year in his development, with Dave Tippett's influence, Mueller should be able to shore up his defensive zone inefficiencies. If he dedicated his summer to strength training and improving his conditioning, then he should be able to put his career back on track.

Yandle had a breakthrough during his first full NHL campaign in 2009. The former "CHL defenseman of the year" has a very high skill level with strong natural instincts. An offensive defenseman, who thrives in the transition game, Yandle loves to attack and likes to join the rush like a 4th forward. He has enormous fantasy potential but will not reach it until he increases his strength level and improves his defensive commitment.

Matthew Lombardi appeared on plenty of sleeper lists entering 2010 because of his statistical splits. Upon arrival in Arizona, Lombardi finished up the 2009 season with 16 points (5G, 11A) in his final 19 games. Lombardi skates like the wind and when engaged causes havoc, but so did Oleg Petrov. If you make conclusions off two to three TV appearances, Lombardi will leave you confused with his lack of production. I got on and off that bandwagon 3 years ago and continue to make the decision to stay away.

Boedker burst from the gate and was among the rookie scoring leaders through October (7 pts in 12 games), but limped to the finish with just 21 points in his final 66 games. Boedker is an explosive skater with endless offensive talent and is able to execute his playmaking ability at top speed. Like all young players, he needs to dedicate himself to the defensive end. Ultimately his potential will hinge on whether he develops the courage to move his offense from the periphery to the dirty areas, if he does, he has the talent level to make a fantasy impact.

Although Turris enjoyed a fast start to his rookie campaign with 4 points in his first three games, but he was ultimately overmatched as the jump from Wisconsin to playing against men was too much. He is not strong enough to compete at the NHL level yet, but like most talented rookies, he showed flashes of his potential with a 4-point (2G, 2A) performance against the powerhouse Sharks in March. Turris has elite offensive skills, but he may need some AHL seasoning before he adjusts to the pace of the NHL game. With his talent and a possible future between Doan and Mueller, Turris' future looks bright.

The Jets have a strong array of prospects as their system is stacked with plenty of players like Pat Elynuik, Fredrik Olausson and Stephan Beauregard. If one or two manage to maximize their potential, they may have a Morris Lukowich, or a Dave Babych on their hands, but what they are truly lacking are the Dale Hawerchuk and Teemu Selanne level talents. A solid, but unspectacular future awaits.

Although Larsson was left off the Swedish World Junior entry, he helped his draft status with a strong performance at the Under 18s with 8 points in 6 games (2G, 6A) and was named the top defenseman at a five-nations event in February. Ekman-Larsson is highly skilled, with excellent hockey sense and skating ability. He is mobile and very skilled with the puck and although he has the ability to lead the rush, he tends to settle for the outlet pass in transition. Larsson impressed at the combine and when he adds strength and muscle to his frame he should develop in to a top pairing defenseman.

MacLean's professional career got off to a rousing start with 21-goals and an AHL All-Star Game nod. It helped ease the fears that he was overly reliant on John Tavares for his two 100+ point OHL campaigns. He has great hands which allow him to be a lethal finisher, but his passing game when coupled with his innate hockey sense make him a dangerous offensive player and future power play weapon. His skating is a work in progress and remains the only red flag separating him from an NHL future. Definite first line potential.

The love child of Sergei Gonchar and Vladamir Malakov, Goncharov made huge strides in the KHL in 2009. He leapt up the Jets depth chart with a monster World Junior tournament where he registered 5 goals in 7 games for Russia. Goncharov possesses plenty of the offensive skills of Sergei Gonchar, but unfortunately possesses not just the howitzer of Malakov, but the lazy reputation as well. If he can provide the consistent intensity to ease that fear, his rugged streak and offensive upside could provide a 100+ PIM fantasy monster.

Tikhonov is an aggressive scoring winger who is plays a physical style and does not shy away from traffic. An aggressive Tikhonov? Shocking. He possesses great vision and hockey sense, but lacks strength, elite finishing skills and at this stage possesses an inefficient skating stride. A project pick with considerable upside.

Generally your scouts sell their talent like Joe Simpson sells his daughters, but when they say, "if he can be more consistent and show drive he’ll be one heck of an offensive threat" and "When he’s on top of his game, he can be very dangerous". I tend to get the message. Lack of consistency and drive? Those are the TWO most important ingredients in future success, if they weren't, Pavel Brendl and Alexandre Daigle would still be NHLers. Stay in the Czech Republic, Winnipeg was the birthplace of Terry Fox, they don't want your lazy ass.

Fantasy Hockey Tweet Off

The Scouts at FantasyHockeyScouts asked me to contribute to their Fantasy Hockey Tweet-Off. Since the kids out there are all aflutter with twitter, they decided to write the post in twitter form. We were asked eight questions and the answers couldn't be longer than a tweet.

I went off the board as I was the only one who didn't bow at the alter of Alexander Ovechkin. Come on Fatso, make me look good!

To read the results, click here.

My rationale below.

The consensus was Alexander Ovechkin. I knew the easy answer was Alexander Ovechkin, so why didn't I choose Alexander Ovechkin? Because f@#k him, that's why.

My reasoning? Alexander Ovechkin is going to be the number one choice in EVERY fantasy hockey draft. Where is Brodeur going to be drafted? Last season he was coming off two ridiculous seasons and was probably the first goalie off the board, but the fantasy owners memory span is about as coherent as Bob Cole and his stock has dropped. With the return of Jacques Lemaire and his defensive system to New Jersey and the wonderbra effect to prop up Fatso's glorious mantits, I went out on a limb.



Pulling a 180º with Janet Eagleson like precision, I decided to go with the consensus and take Tavares as the Calder winner. I dabbled with taking Hedman, but at the end of the day I stuck to my belief that Tavares is underrated because of the "too much tape theory". After scoring 72 goals as a 16 year old, the scouts began to focus on his bad games and ignore the overall landscape of which he performed during his OHL career, it is the polar opposite of a player like Benoit Pouliot, a player who offered less tape and less chances to find flaws (Will anybody under 20 understand that tape means VHS tape?). Do I worry about the regression in his numbers? Not really. With all the court challenges, he seemed to be refining his game, preparing himself for the league he felt he should be in, the NHL. It is also understated that he is already 19, an age that Steven Stamkos did not reach until February of his rooke campaign.

Once again, with the fantasy memory being short, Erik Johnson was a forgotten name on the fantasy landscape. My initial instinct was Stamkos, but watching him being drafted mid-round as opposed to Johnson who was not even drafted in either of my pools, I felt a 50 pt campaign is more of a breakthrough than Stamkos with 65-75 pts. Johnson had 33 points in 69 games as a rookie, and as the top defense man on a team with a lot of burgeoning offensive talent, I think his draft ranking and position mark him for a bigger impact.


How does a goaltender who was undrafted, sight unseen and playing for one of the worst teams in the NHL get hyped to the point where his pre-season fantasy projections (minus wins) place him alongside NHL veterans Marc Andre Fleury, Henrik Lundqvist, Carey Price and Ryan Miller? 

Get signed by Team Hyperbole, the Toronto Maple Leafs, that's how. 

Did anybody learn the lesson of Fabian Brunnstrom in 2008? Nobody has seen the kid play and they are making judgements based on conjecture and stats that are impossible to translate to the NHL. Corey Hirsch was a dominant goaltender in the SEL, as was Martin Gerber and at a younger age Mikael Tellqvist put up huge numbers with a similar resume. (Anybody from the Toronto area will relay the stories of hope about Tellqvist's future as the Maple Leafs number one of the future). Yet the hopes of Leaf Nation paint him as Henrik Lundqvist instead? He could match all the hype, but those who are projecting that hype forward are being disingenuous, they have NO IDEA how good he will be.

It was brought up in the comments that this pick by me is shocking because of my hatred for Theodore, but people generally misinterpret Underrated/Overrated. Jose Theodore is by no means a great goaltender anymore, he is overpaid, he is a shadow of his former MVP self and he maintains fantasy relevance only because of his proximity to Alexander Ovechkin. With all that being said, he should not be on the waiver wire. Simyon Varlamov was overrated and destroyed Theo's pre-draft fantasy value, but Varlamov is 21 and has all of 10 career games under his belt. If Varlamov falters, option number two is Michal Neuvirth, a 21 year old with all of 5 career games under his belt. If both falter then Theo becomes the starter on a 100-110 pt team. Should his value be that more depressed than the annually 99% owned Miikka Kiprusoff?

Here are their 2009 numbers
Theodore - 32W, 2.87 GAA, .900 SV% 2 SO
Kipprusoff -45W, 2.84 GAA, .903 SV%, 4 SO

Add a middle of the pack starter to bridge the 20 game gap that Kiprusoff required to win those extra 13 wins and use your earlier pick on a forward and your team is in superior shape. He is extremely low risk right now and if he can even rollback his numbers to 2008 levels, he becomes an even bigger bargain. This choice was all a way of getting a three for one in that I got to expose Varlamov and Kiprusoff as overrated as well. If Theo's ownership number was 75% or above, I wouldn't have mentioned him, but 57% is absurd.

For a breakdown on why, click here.


An opportunity to crack an Osgood joke? I couldn't resist.

That's a bitchslap of truth right there!

Lie Like an Eagle - Week THREE

Week One - Grab Filatov, he has immense talent and should be mentioned in the same stratosphere as Tavares and Hedman, he will start the season hot, before he slumps, dump him on an unsuspecting owner.

Week Two - Grab Del Zotto, he is hot, he is wonderfully talented, he cannot maintain it, dump him on an unsuspecting owner.

Week Three - Grab Benn, he is hot, he does not possess elite skills, he has great linemates, he is a keeper.

I am confused as to how Janet Eagleson comes to these conclusions. When is it beneficial to play with good teammates? When is it a detriment? When is a hot start a reason to keep a player? When is it a reason to trade him at his peak? When is age a negative factor? When is age a positive factor? When is talent a reason to trade somebody? When is less talent a reason to keep somebody?

I would like a coherent argument as to why Del Zotto and his fantastic skills cannot maintain his pace and why Benn and his lack of elite skills can. Benn is listed as being a beneficiary of Ribeiro and Morrow and yet she recommends TWO Rangers this week because of Marian Gaborik, yet Del Zotto is not a wise long-term investment? If Eagleson didn't waste our time with 10-12 players a week and whittled  her column down, she could provide more than three nonsensical sentences to justify my waiver wire investments.

So after reading her final line about Benn being entrenched as the first line LW because there was nobody else on the depth chart, I was reminded of Oct 24, 2009 where during Frozen Fantasy she recommended her readers to pick up a Dallas LW by the name of Fabian Bruunstrom. I did a search to use for reference and to my shock, Yahoo had deleted her archives. The search result listed this.

Frozen Fantasy: Tortoise or Hare? - Fantasy - Yahoo! Canada Sports - 6:22am
Frozen Fantasy: Tortoise or Hare? By Janet Eagleson Oct 24, 14:51 EDT ... Fabian Brunnstrom, LW, Dallas (37 percent owned) – I dissed this guy in my ..

Followed by a dead link. I call it covering up the evidence.

Of course, last season after Brunnstrom had a hat trick in his debut and posted 5 points through 5 games Eagleson recommended you pick him off the waiver wire. Brunnstrom would go on to put up 24 points in his next 50 games and one season later is a 4th liner who poses no threat to Jamie Benn and his 5 points in 5 games.

Thanks for the advice Eagle.

Here are her week three selections. (my comments in red)

Jamie Benn LW, Dallas (4% owned)

Eagleson upside? See above

Gilbert Brule C, Edmonton (1%)

Eagleson upside? Some ridiculous child crawling analogy, not sold on him, was a top 5 pick (so was Stanislav Chistov), maybe he fails and eats a bottle of glue. Can you be any more non-committal? If Brule puts up 90 points, can she claim this as a solid recommend? If he finishes the season with 15 points can she claim she warned you of his pitfalls? IF YOU AREN'T SURE, DON'T LIST HIM AS A FANTASY ADD!

Ales Kotalik RW, NY Rangers (41%)

Eagleson upside? Inconsistent player who is reaping the benefits of playing with elite teammates. Why not trade him? The guy is not really inconsistent, he is just not very productive. One 60+ pt season at 31 years of age? Pass.

Ryan Malone RW, Tampa Bay Lightning (50%)

Eagleson upside? Has he turned the corner? No, he hasn't. Maybe St. Louis and Stamkos will give him consistency. Can other players GIVE you consistency? What does this mean? 

Brendan Morrison C, Washington Capitals (9%)

Eagleson upside? On Thursday night, Morrison played with Ovechkin and Knuble. Do I need to say anything else? Do you need to say anything else? Yes, you do! In week one you told everybody to dump Brooks Laich because he was playing with Ovechkin, in week two you offered the advice to never judge a player off ONE boxscore and now in week three you are recommending me to pick up a player who is playing with Ovechkin after ONE GAME? Are you kidding me? Can we force her to give her awards back like the Grammy's did with Milli Vanilli?

Matt Moulson LW, NY Islanders (4%)

Eagleson upside? Only thing you need to know, he plays with Tavares. So now the Eagle is recommending rookies drafting off more talented rookies? I think Timmy from Southpark could offer more informative analysis. Pick up TIIIIIMAAAAY THOMAS. Pick up TIMMMAAAY CONNOLLY.

Tomas Plekanec C, Montreal (15%)

Eagleson upside? Rebound season, leads the Habs in scoring, don't be surprised if he has more points than Gomez. Plekanec has been playing with jump this season.

Vaclav Prospal LW, NY Rangers (62%)

Eagleson upside? You need to know two things. He scores every other season and he is playing with a healthy Gaborik. So I should invest in a player based on their chemistry with the most injury prone player in the NHL? Yeah, no thanks. I don't invest in injury prone players, let alone players who rely on injury prone players.

Brad Richards C, Dallas Stars (58%)

Eagleson upside? Pick him up because I want to bed him and he had 90 pts four season ago, and he is better than Lecavalier. His outlier season was the 91 pt year. I assume if Richards puts up 90+, Morrow is going to bounce back and Benn will benefit from Ribeiro that the Stars are in for a monster offensive season.

Darcy Tucker RW, Colorado Avalanche (13%)

Eagleson upside? Pick him up now, but he will not keep it up. No shit!

FantasySense/Dobber Roto 100

Season debut of the Dobber Roto 100.

The list will be updated on the 15th of every month at dobberhockey. This is based on my pre-season projections (average of the fantasy communities projections) and is really a representation of what all the fantasy experts foresee for 2009-10.

For the faithful, some of it is picked up from my pre-season previews, but there is some new material within.

Nick, number 50 is for you. Two middle fingers up buddy!

Lie Like an Eagle - Week TWO

Trade Matt Carle. Pickup Marc Giordano. The Eagle has spoken.

Matt Carle

• Carle is living off a hot start thanks to Chris Pronger.

• He will likely never put up 4 assists again, not just in 2010, his career.

• He is unlikely to reach 40 points in 2010 because he plays behind THREE other powerplay studs and is the Flyers 5th or 6th defender.

• Never base a decision on a single box score.

Marc Giordano

• Don't ignore all defenders not named Dion Phaneuf and Jay Bouwmeester

• Registered a goal and an assist against the Canucks

• Great sleeper and a must add if you are looking to augment your PIMs.

Did I miss something here? Out of one side of her mouth she is claiming that Carle's success cannot last because he is behind THREE powerplay studs. Three? Pronger, Timmonen and? Coburn? Since when did Coburn become a PP stud?

Career PP points.

Carle - 48 pts in 231 games.

Coburn - 32 pts in 220 games

Carle is a 5th or 6th defender? Carle has been playing with Pronger and is fourth on the team in icetime. If he was a 5th or 6th defender, he would need to be supplanted by Ole-Kristian Tollefson, Danny Svyret or Ryan Parent. So lets be conservative and say Carle is a top four pairing defenseman who is receiving the 3rd most PP minutes on the Flyers (all true).

Add Marc Giordano? So in Calgary, Giordano being stuck behind Phaneuf and Bouwmeester is not a hindrance, but Carle being behind Pronger and Timmonen is? Never base a decision on one box score? "He’s also seeing time on the Flames PP and delivered a goal and an assist when the Flames ripped the Orcas opening night". Isn't this backing up your recommendation by using one box score?

Where is the consistency? How can you expose flaws of one player, yet totally ignore those same possible flaws in another? The Eagle did the same thing last week when she told the masses to dump Laich because he is reliant on his great teammates, then recommending you pick up 4-5 players because they may draft off their great teammates.

Is consistency and research too much to ask? Two time award winning fantasy writer? That is like the Mandarin winning best Chinese restaurant of the year in a city with 1000 Chinese restaurants, absurd.

I am not saying that trading Carle is a bad idea, I am not saying adding Giordano is either, but please represent an argument that does not contradict one you made four paragraphs earlier.

Here are her week two selections. (my comments in red.)

Marc-Andre Bergeron D, Montreal (0% owned)

Eagleson upside? Offensive machine. Habs need a PP quarterback. You might get lucky, you might not. Well she has covered off the injury replacement I foreshadowed last week. Bergeron has 160 pts in 339 games and produced a career high 46 pts once, is that the definition of "offensive machine"? Talk about non-committal, represent that he is an offensive stud and finish off by saying maybe he will, maybe he won't, your choice. Lame.

Dustin Byfuglien RW, Chicago (28%)

Eagleson upside? Huge, great player when motivated, dumb. What the hell does deodorant boy mean? Roll on when hot, roll off when not? Is she implying that she doesn't get body odour when it is cold? All I know is her column stinks.

Micheal Del Zotto D, NY Rangers (25%)

Eagleson upside? Talented, young, no chance to continue to produce, trade him now. Are fantasy owners really this dumb?

Marc Giordano D, Calgary (9%)

Eagleson upside? See above.

Patrick Hornqvist RW, Nashville (1%)

Eagleson upside? Ignore last season when he was overmatched because once upon a time he broke Peter Forsberg's rookie scoring record in the junior Swedish league. Eye popping 2 goal, 1 assist performance on Thursday was as eye popping as his chemistry with Arnott and Sullivan. This one is a beauty. Name drop a comparison that isn't really a comparison (reminiscent of LaBarbera won the 2004 AHL MVP). Making a judgement off ONE GAME and recommending him on the strength of his teammates. Then once again dropping in the non-committal at the end. I expect nothing less.

Paul Kariya LW, St. Louis (70%)

Eagleson upside? Really? How shallow is your league if Paul Kariya is available? The guy had 15 pts in 11 games last season. Why not list off Jordan Staal, Brendan Morrow, Paul Stastny, Cam Barker, Tomas Kaberle and Daniel Briere. All players who are owned in less than 70% of leagues? You would think she read my initial column and is just trying to boost her connect rate.

Brenden Morrow LW, Dallas (68%)

Eagleson upside? sigh

Ondrej Pavelec G, Atlanta (17%)

Eagleson upside? He is very good, will put up strong numbers if you need a fill-in. I like Pavelec, I don't like a goaltender on a bad team in a non-keeper league.

Mikael Samuelsson RW, Vancouver (29%)

Eagleson upside? Hot starter, will get injured, use and abuse him while you can. How come this isn't a trade high recommendation like Carle and Del Zotto?

Radim Vrbata RW, Phoenix (15%)

Eagleson upside? Some things just go well together like hot chicks and fast cars and Vrbata and the Coyotes. Vrbata returns to the scene of his breakout. He is lethal on the PP and you should add him right away. Wasn't Vrbata's breakout season in 2005-06 in Chicago when he had 34 pts in 45 games? Isn't Vrbata woefully inconsistent like Mikael Samuelsson and Dustin Byfuglien? Some things just go well together, like Janet Eagleson and uninspired analysis.

Ryan Whitney D, Anaheim (35%)

Eagleson upside? Overlooked due to injury, still skilled and is the heir apparent to Niedermayer. He has 50 pts and 80 PIMs in his future. Agree.

Still waiting for Eagleson to raise her level, after reading her initial two columns, I may be waiting a long time.

For Obsessive Daily Coverage

Being the one-man wolfpack I am, it is impossible to provide the daily updates that I would love to for my William Hung sized fanbase. I suggest shooting over to Fantasy Hockey Scouts. These guys are on the day-to-day NHL fantasy beat like Letterman on an intern. 

This is not about me trying to hoard readers, it is AND is always about providing you the best chance to win your fantasy title.

2009 Florida Panthers Fantasy Preview

With the departure of Jay Bouwmeester the Florida Panthers will once again be on the outside looking in. How long would it take to put together this expert opinion? 5 seconds? 10? Why is it that every season magazines predict the next years standing on variables that happened the season before? Nobody has the testicular fortitude to project internal improvement. Instead the easy way to determine things is to look at the free agents who signed/left of course. Bouwmeester gone, Florida worse, no playoffs.

Nevermind that Peter Doboer has only missed the playoffs ONCE in his head coaching career (last season when they tied for 8th and lost the tiebreaker), that the Panthers have emerging talents in Frolik, Booth, Horton and Ballard, or that their coach has been a defensive success yearly. They can't possibly have a chance without a player who only made the playoffs once since he was sixteen.

I will paddle out to the island on my own, because I like the Panthers to make the playoffs in 2010.

Peter Doboer has exactly the type of resume you are looking for when searching for a fantasy edge. Last season when I was looking into Craig Anderson's dramatic rise, I looked into Doboer's history and discovered a coach who had led the league in defense 4 of the last 10 years and registered a top 5 finish in 8 of those seasons. Needless to say, my first recommendation was to pick up Vokoun.

In a keeper league, the name Jacob Markstrom should be an immediate add. The top rated junior goaltender combined with a defensive minded coach could lead to the next Price/Mason/Rask. Even with the loss of Bouwmeester, the Panthers should adjust and allow Vokoun the insulation he requires to remain at the top of the league. His history also provides no reason to be concerned about the offensive output of the Panthers emerging offensive stars.

Tomas Vokoun has been one of the most consistent fantasy goaltenders over the last five seasons. Since 2003, Vokoun has averaged 30 wins, a 2.50 GAA, .917 SV% and 4 shutouts. Yet every season he is usually the 9th or 10th goaltender drafted. Vokoun finished the 2009 season as the number two goaltender overall in the fantasysense efficiency rankings, on the strength of a blazing middle two quarters. Between Dec 21st and Feb 21st he registered a 14-7-2 record with a 2.06 GAA and a .937 SV%. He is still only 33 years old and with Anderson gone will continue to be a workhorse, with Doboer's system maturation, expect a big season from Vokoun in 2010. (note. How fitting is it that with Vokoun's NHL success, Microsoft Word's spell check mistakes his name for Vacuum? Almost as fitting as Emery coming up as Ebony and Osgood coming up as Shit)

Michael Frolik (aka Baby Jagr) had a very impressive rookie campaign that strangely fell of the radar. Making the jump direct from Rimouski of the QMJHL, Frolik took 20 games before adjusting to the NHL. After a slow first quarter where he only produced 4 points, Frolik 's ascension coincided with Nathan Horton's injury and he was able to maintain a 59 pt pace to finish out the season, no small feat for a 20 year old. Frolik has the ability to play a power game as well as the hands and vision to execute like a finesse player. His defensive commitment and his and work ethic insure future success and he looks like a future offensive catalyst for the Panthers.

Nathan Horton is the posterboy for fantasy frustration, but is an example of how long power forwards can take to round into dominant form. It is amazing to think that Horton is in his 6th NHL season and is still only 24 years old. A yearly inclusion on the fantasy breakout list, Horton suffered several nagging injuries that helped derail his 2009 campaign. Horton has elite finishing skills and is unstoppable when he commits to the power game, but his intensity and lack of defensive commitment render him invisible at times. One wonders if the switch will ever go on, but his tantalizing skillset should buy him another season or two from fantasy owners willing to gamble.

David Booth enjoyed a breakout season in 2009 with 31 goals despite missing 10 games. Looking at his splits his inconsistency becomes apparent. He was extremely streaky and there is no better indication of that then his 2 goals and 3 assists on the final night of the regular season. His inconsistency is surprising given his tenacious work ethic and willingness to head to the dirty areas of the ice. Booth is a solid mid-round selection who may have another gear.

Re-united with his junior coach, Stephen Weiss enjoyed his best professional season, registering a career high in points and games played. Weiss is a creative playmaker, but has suffered durability issues because he is undersized, his lack of size and strength can also lead to him being taken advantage of defensively. Weiss is till relatively young at 26 and improved offensively as the year progressed. Because of his injury history and the glut of available 50-60 pt centers, I would stay away. Although not a terrible late add in a deep league because of his offensive upside.

If scoring in your own net and defensive zone turnovers were fantasy categories, McCabe would be a fantasy superstar, unfortunately his greatest value lies in his blistering slapshot (a weapon that saw him added to the 2006 Olympic team. In retrospect, is it a shock that Canada didn't win?). In leagues that value goals over assists, McCabe is a strong fantasy weapon as he has produced 15+ goals in 5 of the last 7 seasons. Ignore the Toronto centric baggage, outside of +/- his defensive inadequacies are irrelevant in fantasy, he remains a powerplay horse and with the departure of Bouwmeester his patented one-timer could result in a 50-point campaign.

Keith Ballard looked to be on his way to a breakout campaign as he led the Panthers in scoring with 10 pts in his first 10 games. With the return of McCabe to the first unit powerplay, his production dried up. Ballard does possess a strong offensive skill set as well as a bullet point shot, although it is as inaccurate as a movie villain's machine gun. He is a solid puckmover, but lacks imagination. With the departure of Bouwmeester, he is likely to see more ice-time and the likely return to the 40 pt mark.

Stillman is a great example of the importance of position in determining how valuable a player is. He looks at times like he is skating around with a giant fork in his back, but a 63 pt campaign (his 2009 point per game pace) would have provided a top 15 finish among left wingers in 2009. Stillman is still an intelligent playmaker that has continued to remain productive through hard work and capitalizing on his opportunities. Even during his prime he could always be had at a discount, after an injury-plagued season he once again could be had late in a draft. Productive left-wingers in fantasy are as rare as a gracefully aging pornstar, for that reason alone he maintains fantasy value.

If you are looking at a team capable of making the leap "out of nowhere", sorry, I am paraphrasing James Duthie from a TSN broadcast in 2011, then look no further than the Florida Panthers. It makes me wonder if Jacques Martin was drunk when he took the call from Bob Gainey. The Panthers have elite young talent at the NHL level, a hungry talented coach and two of the best prospects in the game in Markstrom and Kulikov. Things are really looking up for the future Quebec Nordiques.

Markström was on his way to the SEL's rookie of the year as he was dominant leading in to the 2009 World Juniors. He dominated the Juniors posting a 4-1 record with a 1.61 GAA and a .943 SV%, but a sore knee hampered his second half, allowing Victor Hedam to win the SEL rookie of the year. Markström is a large, skilled goaltender with great mental strength and a calm demeanor. He is a strong positionally sound butterfly goaltender with great agility and the patience to not commit to the ice early. He still needs to work on his rebound control and economy of movement, but if he continues his current rate of progression, he projects out as an NHL star.

After a dominant playoff for Drummondville, I was surprised that Kulikov fell to the Panthers at 14. During his North American debut, Kulikov won the Q award for best defenseman, top rookie and the best pro-prospect. Kulikov possesses superb hockey sense and when his aggression is added to his elite offensive skills he has the potential to be a fantasy beast. With his aggression comes his gambling nature, but as he matures his intelligence should be able to decipher the proper risks. As he gains strength he will be more prepared to deal with net clearing and coverage down low. He has All-Star in his future and Markov/Zubov potential.

Shawn Matthias is a big, strong forward who had unrealistic expectations thrust upon him due to the hyperbolic mouth of Pierre McGuire. Matthias entered the AHL after a dominant final OHL season and a dominant World Juniors and has failed to live up to the hype, becoming the target of disenchanted Rochester fans. He has excellent agility for a man his size, but lacks explosiveness in his skating stride. He likes to carry the puck and dictate the play, but he has had a tendency to play on the selfish side. Like all young power forwards, he is unpolished at this stage of his career and remains a project fantasy pick.

Michal Repik is a small shifty skater with strong acceleration, anticipation and creative puck skills. He had a strong rookie campaign in Rochester leading the Americans in scoring with a modest 49 pts. He does not lack the courage to work in the dirty areas and his intelligent approach allows him to position his body to maximize his size. A speed demon whose future lies on the top two lines in the NHL.

Dadonov is an elusive forward who can skate and dangle with the best of them. Like all KHL prospects, he remains somewhat of a question mark, but the 5'10, 178 lbs winger should be able to compete for a job when he gives up the Borscht and Vodka for Big Macs and Budweiser.